The implementation of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is expected to have complex impacts on the upstream industrial chain, including energy consumption and carbon emissions. China, being the largest trading partner of EU, has been proactively dealing with the potential impacts, however, few studies have been conducted on this topic, especially in the high-carbon industries. By employing the STIRPAT model and Ridge regression as the primary analytical tools, this study endeavors to explore the driving factors behind the potential impacts of CBAM on these industries. The STIRPAT model and Ridge regression were mainly used. Results show that: (1) the embodied carbon emissions in their exports from industries of iron and steel, and fertilizer of China would slowly increase until 2030; (2) energy structure, energy intensity and the share of exports to EU are significantly influence the embodied carbon emissions; (3) CBAM would have the greatest economic impacts on industries of iron and steel, and aluminium; (4) The carbon tariffs of all four industries would decline under the low-carbon scenario, with the aluminium industry decreasing the most. It is expected that if the CBAM covers both the upstream and downstream industries products, more carbon emissions would be included in the scope of CBAM levies, resulting in potential higher carbon tariffs to China's high-carbon industries.

The rubber wood furniture industry chain, including planting and manufacturing subsystems, emits significant greenhouse gases (GHGs), meanwhile, has huge carbon emission reduction potential. However, quite few studies have taken the whole industry chain GHGs into consideration, especially assessing and predicting those from rubber tree planting to furniture manufacturing. We took the rubber wood furniture of Hainan province as the case, explored its whole life cycle GHGs from cradle-to-gate and predicted the potential GHGs from 2031 to 2062. This study is fully based on field survey and sampling data, including that of the rubber tree planting (40-year cycle) and furniture manufacturing. The results reveal: (1) Whole industry chain of rubber wood furniture emits 3.27 × 10⁶ kgCO2-eq GHGs per 20,000 t rubber logs consuming, where the planting accounts the most (88.20%). Transport and electricity consumption are the main GHGs sources of planting and manufacturing subsystems respectively; (2) The whole life-cycle GHGs of rubber wood furniture in 2023 of Hainan is 2.07 × 10⁷ kgCO2-eq, which mainly come from Danzhou (24.74%), Haikou (19.55%), and Qiongzhong (15.79%); (3) The total GHGs from the rubber wood furniture industry in Hainan from 2031 to 2062 are 210 MtCO2-eq and 129 MtCO2-eq respectively, without or with felling restriction. The changes of GHGs from 2051 to 2062 are caused by the regional center shift of planting gravity; (4) Improving energy use efficiency and optimizing the location of furniture factories would reduce GHGs. This study can provide empirical support for the low carbon sustainable transformation of the rubber wood furniture industry worldwide.