The destructive consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic have negatively affected socioeconomic indicators and disrupted macroeconomic stability. The aim of the study is to determine the optimal combination of financial, socioeconomic, and public health determinants based on their relevance for the post-pandemic recovery of macroeconomic stability. For this purpose, principal component analysis was used to form an initial macroeconomic stability index by integrating such indicators as GDP growth, unemployment rate, consumer price index, current account balance, and trade volume. Next, the Granger test and panel data regression modeling was employed to identify the causality between the level of macroeconomic stability and a set of financial, socioeconomic and public health determinants. Finally, the financial, socioeconomic, and public health determinants were ranked according to their impact on macroeconomic stability. The obtained empirical results can be used to improve the financial, economic, and health care state policies in terms of strengthening country resistance to risks caused by a pandemic or other similar threats in the future.
In response to global economic, social, and environmental problems, ESG investment principles have changed the approach to directing and structuring foreign direct investment. Additionally, they are becoming an essential factor in attracting migrants. This article aims to determine the impact of foreign direct investment on global migration trends and their peculiarities with the introduction of ESG investment principles. For this purpose, global foreign direct investment flows, global ESG investment flows, and global migration trends have been analyzed from 1995 to 2022. Pairwise correlation calculation was used as the primary analysis method through R-Studio software with integrated R programming language. The results indicated a 35% correlation between the volume of global ESG investment flows and the number of international migrants (as a percentage of the total population, which varies between 3.2% and 3.6%) for 2010-2022. Subsequently, regression analysis was conducted to explore the relationship between critical variables: investment flows and the level of migration in four European countries (France, Poland, the Czech Republic, and Germany). It was determined that investment inflows led to new jobs, accelerated economic growth, and improved business climate, thus encouraging reduced outflow and increased inflow of migrants. Investments based on ESG principles also reduce emigration as they enhance the quality of life in the host country, provide better environmental protection, and promote more transparent corporate management. However, it should be noted that investments have no apparent impact on migration caused by external factors such as wars or political conflicts, so such analysis should not include periods of global economic and political unrest.
Publication Name: Journal of International Studies
Publication Date: 2022-01-01
Volume: 15
Issue: 4
Page Range: 196-212
Description:
The article examines the relationship between the size of the shadow economy and indicators of the investment market development. Net inflow of foreign direct investments, volume of net investments in non-financial assets, volumes of portfolio investments, and net outflow of foreign direct investment were used as parameters characterizing the development of the investment market. The dependence between the indicators was analyzed using the regression equation, Shapiro-Wilk test. Research results demonstrate that the increase in the inflow and outflow of foreign direct investments leads to an increase in the size of the shadow economy without a time lag in Ukraine, Poland, Slovenia, Romania, Croatia, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and with a time lag of 1 year in Slovakia and Hungary. The largest impact on the size of the shadow economy is made by the volume of inflow and outflow of direct foreign investments, while the volume of portfolio investments has a less significant effect. Consequently, it was concluded that the processes of inflow and outflow of direct foreign investments require enhanced control by specialized state executive bodies given the scale of their potential destabilizing impact on the macroeconomic stability of the country.