This study builds upon the findings of a FAIRMODE intercomparison exercise conducted in a district of Antwerp, Belgium, where a comprehensive dataset of air pollutant measurements (air quality stations and passive samplers) was available. Long-term average NO2 concentrations at very high spatial resolution were estimated by several dispersion modelling systems (Martín et al., 2024) to investigate the ability of these to capture the detailed spatial distribution of NO2 concentrations at the microscale in urban environments. In this follow-up research, we extend the analysis by evaluating the capability of these modelling systems to predict the NO2 annual limit value exceedance areas (LVEAs) and spatial representativeness areas (SRAs) for NO₂ at two reference air quality stations. The different modelling approaches used are based on CFD, Lagrangian, Gaussian, and AI-driven models. The different modelling approaches are generally good at predicting the LVEA and SRAs of urban air quality stations, although a small SRA (corresponding to low concentration tolerances or the traffic station) is more difficult to predict correctly. However, there are notable differences in performance among the modelling systems. Those based on CFD models seem to provide more consistent results predicting LVEAs and SRAs. Then, lower accuracy is obtained with AI-based systems, Lagrangian models, and Gaussian models with street canyon parameterizations. The Gaussian models with street-canyon parametrizations show significantly better results than models using simply a Gaussian dispersion parametrization. Furthermore, little differences are observed in most of the statistical indicators corresponding to the LVEA and SRA estimates obtained from the unsteady full month CFD simulations compared to those from the scenario-based CFD simulation methodologies, but there are some noticeable differences in the LVEA or SRA (traffic station, 10 % tolerance) sizes. The number of scenarios does not seem to be relevant to the results. Different bias correction methodologies are explored.

In the framework of the Forum for Air Quality Modelling in Europe (FAIRMODE), a modelling intercomparison exercise for computing NO2 long-term average concentrations in urban districts with a very high spatial resolution was carried out. This exercise was undertaken for a district of Antwerp (Belgium). Air quality data includes data recorded in air quality monitoring stations and 73 passive samplers deployed during one-month period in 2016. The modelling domain was 800 × 800 m². Nine modelling teams participated in this exercise providing results from fifteen different modelling applications based on different kinds of model approaches (CFD – Computational Fluid Dynamics-, Lagrangian, Gaussian, and Artificial Intelligence). Some approaches consisted of models running the complete one-month period on an hourly basis, but most others used a scenario approach, which relies on simulations of scenarios representative of wind conditions combined with post-processing to retrieve a one-month average of NO2 concentrations. The objective of this study is to evaluate what type of modelling system is better suited to get a good estimate of long-term averages in complex urban districts. This is very important for air quality assessment under the European ambient air quality directives. The time evolution of NO2 hourly concentrations during a day of relative high pollution was rather well estimated by all models. Relative to high resolution spatial distribution of one-month NO2 averaged concentrations, Gaussian models were not able to give detailed information, unless they include building data and street-canyon parameterizations. The models that account for complex urban geometries (i.e. CFD, Lagrangian, and AI models) appear to provide better estimates of the spatial distribution of one-month NO2 averages concentrations in the urban canopy. Approaches based on steady CFD-RANS (Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes) model simulations of meteorological scenarios seem to provide good results with similar quality to those obtained with an unsteady one-month period CFD-RANS simulations.