The aim of this article is to develop models that can measure probabilistic budget volatility risk in a manner that is not dependent on the type of cost or financing unit. Budgets are essential tools in facilitating the management process of any organization, while budget control helps optimize resource allocation and enhance operational efficiency. Using the methodology of budget deviation analysis can significantly improve the management of organizational units. However, the authors identify a research gap in terms of both methodology and application when it comes to analyzing the risk of budget variances. To address this, the authors develop models based on the theory of extreme values. The models can determine the deviation level for a specific probability level and estimate the limit level of deviation for assumed probabilities. These models can be used to holistically evaluate the level of budget implementation in the enterprise, compare the quality of budget implementation overtime and across units, and identify materiality limits of budget variances. To validate the models, empirical data from the budget control system of a major European city university was used. Empirical distributions obtained from the data were used to determine budget variances that indicate the level of deviation for a given probability level.

The Polish economy is facing a huge challenge regarding the future of energy in Poland. The current energy system is very inefficient, it consumes huge resources that, like countries with high energy efficiency, could be allocated to the development of low-carbon and renewable energy networks. At the moment, the Polish energy sector, related to the coal monoculture, lacks electricity and the entire transmission system is obsolete. The solution may be distributed energy, which can ultimately satisfy energy supplies in less urbanized areas and in rural areas, while guaranteeing the sustainable development of these areas. In order to take up the challenge of better understanding and explaining such a complex reality, it was decided that the research framework of this article will be distributed energy in the region. The aim of the article is to ensure energy security in the conditions of innovative, ecological and open to competition regional energy using local energy resources. Currently, it is believed that distributed energy can be an effective solution to the problem of conventional energy operation.