Several countries have introduced public health product taxes with the objective of reducing the absolute amount of consumption of unhealthy food and tackling obesity. This study aims to estimate the long-term impact of the Hungarian public health product tax introduced in 2011. To achieve this, a unique consumer purchase dataset was analysed to examine daily fast-moving consumer goods purchases from a representative sample of 2,000 households from 2010 to 2018. The results indicate that the tax has been fully reflected in consumer prices. A decline in consumption was observed initially, consistent with previous experiences in Hungary and other countries. However, over time, the data suggests a recovery and even an increase in line with the growth of disposable income. The proportion of taxed products in total fast-moving consumer goods purchases increased from 5.9 % (95 % CI: 5.7 % to 6.0 %) in 2010 to 7.4 % (95 % CI: 7.3 % to 7.6 %) in 2018. Furthermore, the tax has contributed to increased inequality as low-income households spend a higher proportion of their total expenditure on it. Although taxes on unhealthy foods have proven effective in the short-term, they may not be adequate for reducing overall consumption in the long-term, particularly as disposable income increases. In conclusion, implementing complex interventions is necessary to achieve sustainable positive changes in dietary habits.

Introduction: We have quantified the healthy life years lost and the costs incurred in 2019 due to the poor health of the Hungarian population aged 30-64 from a societal perspective, but also from the perspective of several other social actors, calculating the indirect costs according to the human capital approach. Objective: The aim of our estimate is to shed light on the radically high losses that Hungary incurs year after year as a result of its inhabitants living significantly shorter and sicker lives than people in similar situations in other countries. Method: In the first part of the analysis, we aggregated the time lost due to illness and disability for the age group 30-64 in 2019. The aggregated Hungarian values for the studied age group were compared with the corresponding values for the Visegrad countries, Austria and the European Union. The second part of the analysis aggregates the social costs of time spent in ill health. A distinction is made between direct costs, which involve the movement of money, and indirect costs, which are embodied in lost income or production. Results: In Hungary, the nearly 4.8 million people aged 30-64 spent a total of 654,000 years on sick leave in 2019, which equated to an average of about 50 days per person. This means 14% of the total number of working days could have been working days in good health. The direct costs, i.e., the expenditure of the Health Insurance Fund and the expenditure financed by patients and voluntary insurance, amounted to HUF 1,446 billion. Indirect costs, i.e., expenditure due to the loss of working years as a result of premature death and illness, represented a further burden of HUF 2,279 billion. Conclusion: In 2019, the direct and indirect expenditure of people aged 30-64 amounted to HUF 3425 billion, or 7.21% of the GDP. It is well known that in developed countries, including Hungary, the greatest health losses are caused by non-communicable chronic diseases, which can be prevented by a healthy lifestyle. Therefore, the promotion of healthy lifestyles and the creation of a conducive physical and social environment are essential for improving the country s competitiveness.