This study investigates the determinants of research productivity in Uzbekistan’s public universities using a balanced panel of 15 institutions over 2010–2023. The analysis integrates three complementary dimensions: human capital, institutional efficiency, and macroeconomic conditions to explain why research output varies markedly across universities during a period of rapid reforms. A fixed-effects instrumental-variable model is employed to control for unobserved institutional characteristics and potential endogeneity in spending efficiency and economic indicators. The results show that academic staff capacity is the strongest predictor of research productivity, while GDP growth also contributes positively by creating more stable conditions for long-term academic development. Education spending efficiency has a meaningful effect, suggesting that governance and internal management shape how resources translate into research outcomes. These findings underscore the need to strengthen faculty development, improve institutional accountability, and align higher education policy with national economic priorities.