UNESCO World Heritage cities must reconcile historic preservation with modern urban mobility, yet quantitative evidence on the effectiveness of heritage-compatible transport interventions remains limited. This study evaluates the Bukhara Transport Master Plan (2025–2026) through GIS-based scenario modeling, traffic microsimulation (PTV Vision® Vissim), and econometric analysis to test whether heritage conservation and mobility improvements can be simultaneously optimized. A quasi-experimental design compared three scenarios — baseline (2024), do-nothing (2026), and with-plan (2026) — using primary data from a stratified population survey (n = 3, 179; ±1.7% margin of error), video-based traffic recording at 62 intersections capturing 2, 815, 827 vehicle movements via semi-automated YOLOv8 classification, and manual passenger observations at 30 bus terminals (42, 448 events). Accessibility was measured using 300-meter buffer coverage and 30-minute isochrone analysis across 163 transport analysis zones. The planned scenario projects that soft measures — route restructuring, signal coordination, and station upgrades — can double the public transit modal share from 14% to 30% (p < 0.001), reduce average travel time by 40% (from 32.3 to 23.4 minutes; p < 0.001, η² = 0.27), expand spatial coverage from 57.5 to 74.8 km², and improve 30-minute accessibility from 66.3% to 81.2% (p < 0.001, η² = 0.34), all without physical alteration of the historic urban fabric. Corridor-level microsimulation demonstrated a 15% reduction in CO, NOx, and VOC emissions (all p < 0.001, Cohen’s d > 1.4). Coverage-ridership regression (R2 = 0.97) indicated that each additional km² of network coverage generates 5, 789 daily passengers, with geographically weighted regression revealing that commercial corridors yield approximately 75% higher ridership elasticity than peripheral residential zones. The counterfactual scenario underscores the cost of inaction: a projected decline in accessibility to 47.5% and a 6.9-minute increase in travel time. These findings empirically corroborate the heritage-mobility compatibility thesis and provide a transferable methodological framework for achieving SDG 11.2 within heritage city constraints.