Global burden of 292 causes of death in 204 countries and territories and 660 subnational locations, 1990–2023: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023

Niveen M.E. Abu-Rmeileh Nermeen Abu-Elala Jeza Muhamad Abdul Aziz Shehab Uddin Al Abid Rana Kamal Abu Farha Cristiana Abbafati Faezeh Abbaspour Madineh Abbasi Barkhad Aden Abdeeq Nadin M.I. Abdel Razeq Mohammed Altigani Abdalla Abdallah H.A. Abd Al Magied Reda Abdel-Hameed Wael M. Abdel-Rahman Ahmed Abdelrahman Abdelgalil Bulcha Guye Adema Bashir Aden Michael Abdelmasseh Aminu Kende Abubakar Eman Abu-Gharbieh Isaac Ayodeji Adesina Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika Afolabi Giuseppina Affinito Thilini Chanchala Agampodi Kamoru Ademola Adedokun Nurudeen A. Adegoke Ashraf Nabiel Abdalla Habtamu Abebe Getahun Lisa C. Adams Clifford Afoakwah Armita Abedi Usha Adiga Hmwe Hmwe Kyu A. Bhoomadevi Mohammad Amin Aalipour Bedru J. Abafita Hazim S. Ababneh Ukachukwu O. Abaraogu Dariush Abtahi Ripon Kumar Adhikary Mohd Adnan Tanin Adl Parvar Alemwork Abie Hana J. Abukhadijah Rotimi Felix Afolabi Habtamu Abebe Getahun Tanin Adl Parvar Vlad Adrian Afrăsânie Saira Afzal Gizachew Beykaso Agafari Emad M. Abdallah Samar Abd ElHafeez Suneth Buddhika Agampodi Mohsen Naghavi Salahdein Aburuz Mahmoud Abdelnabi Lucas Guimarães Abreu Apurba Acharya Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi Jeza Muhamad Abdul Aziz Oluwafemi Atanda Adeagbo Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani Ahmed M. Afifi Hedayat Abbastabar Samar Abd ElHafeez Deldar Morad Abdulah Abdu A. Adamu Toufik Abdul-Rahman Asrat Agalu Abejew Dmitry Abramov Juliana Bunmi Adetunji Fuad Hamdi A. Abuadas Sawsan Abuhammad Ousman Adal Parisa Abedi Mostafa M. Abdrabou Aidin Abedi Olugbenga Olusola Abiodun Shady Abohashem Nagah M. Abourashed Mohamed Abouzid Roberto Ariel Abeldaño Zuñiga Anirudh Balakrishna Acharya Isaac Yeboah Addo Arman Abdous Auwal Abdullahi David Adzrago Hasan Aalruz Syed Hani Abidi Richard Gyan Aboagye Hassan Abolhassani Ulric Sena Abonie Habeeb Omoponle Adewuyi Prince Owusu Adoma Leticia Akua Adzigbli Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji Ahmad Y. Abuhelwa Dina Abushanab Tajudeen Adesanmi Adebisi Oluwatobi E. Adegbile Olumide Thomas Adeleke Miracle Ayomikun Adesina Temitayo Esther Adeyeoluwa Mache Tsadik Adhana

Publication Name: Lancet

Publication Date: 2025-10-18

Volume: 406

Issue: 10513

Page Range: 1811-1872

Description:

Background Timely and comprehensive analyses of causes of death stratified by age, sex, and location are essential for shaping effective health policies aimed at reducing global mortality. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023 provides cause-specific mortality estimates measured in counts, rates, and years of life lost (YLLs). GBD 2023 aimed to enhance our understanding of the relationship between age and cause of death by quantifying the probability of dying before age 70 years (70q0) and the mean age at death by cause and sex. This study enables comparisons of the impact of causes of death over time, offering a deeper understanding of how these causes affect global populations. Methods GBD 2023 produced estimates for 292 causes of death disaggregated by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 660 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2023. We used a modelling tool developed for GBD, the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to estimate cause-specific death rates for most causes. We computed YLLs as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. Probability of death was calculated as the chance of dying from a given cause in a specific age period, for a specific population. Mean age at death was calculated by first assigning the midpoint age of each age group for every death, followed by computing the mean of all midpoint ages across all deaths attributed to a given cause. We used GBD death estimates to calculate the observed mean age at death and to model the expected mean age across causes, sexes, years, and locations. The expected mean age reflects the expected mean age at death for individuals within a population, based on global mortality rates and the population's age structure. Comparatively, the observed mean age represents the actual mean age at death, influenced by all factors unique to a location-specific population, including its age structure. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 250-draw distribution for each metric. Findings are reported as counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2023 include a correction for the misclassification of deaths due to COVID-19, updates to the method used to estimate COVID-19, and updates to the CODEm modelling framework. This analysis used 55 761 data sources, including vital registration and verbal autopsy data as well as data from surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. For GBD 2023, there were 312 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 3 country-years of surveillance data, 51 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 144 country-years of other data types that were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. Findings The initial years of the COVID-19 pandemic caused shifts in long-standing rankings of the leading causes of global deaths: it ranked as the number one age-standardised cause of death at Level 3 of the GBD cause classification hierarchy in 2021. By 2023, COVID-19 dropped to the 20th place among the leading global causes, returning the rankings of the leading two causes to those typical across the time series (ie, ischaemic heart disease and stroke). While ischaemic heart disease and stroke persist as leading causes of death, there has been progress in reducing their age-standardised mortality rates globally. Four other leading causes have also shown large declines in global age-standardised mortality rates across the study period: diarrhoeal diseases, tuberculosis, stomach cancer, and measles. Other causes of death showed disparate patterns between sexes, notably for deaths from conflict and terrorism in some locations. A large reduction in age-standardised rates of YLLs occurred for neonatal disorders. Despite this, neonatal disorders remained the leading cause of global YLLs over the period studied, except in 2021, when COVID-19 was temporarily the leading cause. Compared to 1990, there has been a considerable reduction in total YLLs in many vaccine-preventable diseases, most notably diphtheria, pertussis, tetanus, and measles. In addition, this study quantified the mean age at death for all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality and found noticeable variation by sex and location. The global all-cause mean age at death increased from 46·8 years (95% UI 46·6–47·0) in 1990 to 63·4 years (63·1–63·7) in 2023. For males, mean age increased from 45·4 years (45·1–45·7) to 61·2 years (60·7–61·6), and for females it increased from 48·5 years (48·1–48·8) to 65·9 years (65·5–66·3), from 1990 to 2023. The highest all-cause mean age at death in 2023 was found in the high-income super-region, where the mean age for females reached 80·9 years (80·9–81·0) and for males 74·8 years (74·8–74·9). By comparison, the lowest all-cause mean age at death occurred in sub-Saharan Africa, where it was 38·0 years (37·5–38·4) for females and 35·6 years (35·2–35·9) for males in 2023. Lastly, our study found that all-cause 70q0 decreased across each GBD super-region and region from 2000 to 2023, although with large variability between them. For females, we found that 70q0 notably increased from drug use disorders and conflict and terrorism. Leading causes that increased 70q0 for males also included drug use disorders, as well as diabetes. In sub-Saharan Africa, there was an increase in 70q0 for many non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Additionally, the mean age at death from NCDs was lower than the expected mean age at death for this super-region. By comparison, there was an increase in 70q0 for drug use disorders in the high-income super-region, which also had an observed mean age at death lower than the expected value. Interpretation We examined global mortality patterns over the past three decades, highlighting—with enhanced estimation methods—the impacts of major events such as the COVID-19 pandemic, in addition to broader trends such as increasing NCDs in low-income regions that reflect ongoing shifts in the global epidemiological transition. This study also delves into premature mortality patterns, exploring the interplay between age and causes of death and deepening our understanding of where targeted resources could be applied to further reduce preventable sources of mortality. We provide essential insights into global and regional health disparities, identifying locations in need of targeted interventions to address both communicable and non-communicable diseases. There is an ever-present need for strengthened health-care systems that are resilient to future pandemics and the shifting burden of disease, particularly among ageing populations in regions with high mortality rates. Robust estimates of causes of death are increasingly essential to inform health priorities and guide efforts toward achieving global health equity. The need for global collaboration to reduce preventable mortality is more important than ever, as shifting burdens of disease are affecting all nations, albeit at different paces and scales. Funding Gates Foundation.

Open Access: Yes

DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(25)01917-8

Authors - 104

Niveen M.E. Abu-Rmeileh

57216675148

Nermeen Abu-Elala

56073088900

Jeza Muhamad Abdul Aziz

55670686800

Shehab Uddin Al Abid

58984765000

Rana Kamal Abu Farha

56283149600

Cristiana Abbafati

54917122400

Faezeh Abbaspour

60175308900

Madineh Abbasi

57193923353

Barkhad Aden Abdeeq

58871112900

Nadin M.I. Abdel Razeq

57188590773

Mohammed Altigani Abdalla

57217676700

Abdallah H.A. Abd Al Magied

59128864400

Reda Abdel-Hameed

54883057400

Wael M. Abdel-Rahman

6603240889

Ahmed Abdelrahman Abdelgalil

60174812100

Bulcha Guye Adema

57217255584

Bashir Aden

55785191600

Michael Abdelmasseh

57356690000

Aminu Kende Abubakar

58880268300

Eman Abu-Gharbieh

24586714800

Isaac Ayodeji Adesina

57215413364

Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika Afolabi

57219351723

Giuseppina Affinito

57220067141

Thilini Chanchala Agampodi

23018305000

Kamoru Ademola Adedokun

57207983240

Nurudeen A. Adegoke

57196007299

Ashraf Nabiel Abdalla

57194191387

Habtamu Abebe Getahun

59135717500

Lisa C. Adams

57192991712

Clifford Afoakwah

56764695900

Armita Abedi

57204607249

Usha Adiga

14057674100

Hmwe Hmwe Kyu

57217040073

A. Bhoomadevi

57208576447

Mohammad Amin Aalipour

57221831253

Bedru J. Abafita

59747304100

Hazim S. Ababneh

57371604000

Ukachukwu O. Abaraogu

56119041500

Dariush Abtahi

18036750600

Ripon Kumar Adhikary

55847469100

Mohd Adnan

36022136700

Tanin Adl Parvar

58494468100

Alemwork Abie

58020591000

Hana J. Abukhadijah

57865346000

Rotimi Felix Afolabi

57190673952

Habtamu Abebe Getahun

57222307044

Tanin Adl Parvar

59905754300

Vlad Adrian Afrăsânie

57203910734

Saira Afzal

7004381116

Gizachew Beykaso Agafari

57790095900

Emad M. Abdallah

16644652400

Samar Abd ElHafeez

55551273300

Suneth Buddhika Agampodi

23017863100

Mohsen Naghavi

57207906323

Salahdein Aburuz

59755057900

Mahmoud Abdelnabi

57205711287

Lucas Guimarães Abreu

55937631400

Apurba Acharya

57871487800

Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi

55353650500

Jeza Muhamad Abdul Aziz

58640670900

Oluwafemi Atanda Adeagbo

55626228700

Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani

57211604149

Ahmed M. Afifi

57196175428

Hedayat Abbastabar

57212441848

Samar Abd ElHafeez

59158131500

Deldar Morad Abdulah

57200190808

Abdu A. Adamu

57202024381

Toufik Abdul-Rahman

57576497300

Asrat Agalu Abejew

55204820500

Dmitry Abramov

25623078100

Juliana Bunmi Adetunji

57192177427

Fuad Hamdi A. Abuadas

57193453829

Sawsan Abuhammad

57205384547

Ousman Adal

57766218500

Parisa Abedi

57219860997

Mostafa M. Abdrabou

57205679934

Aidin Abedi

56673854800

Olugbenga Olusola Abiodun

54386552600

Shady Abohashem

57194703660

Nagah M. Abourashed

57450956800

Mohamed Abouzid

57204445082

Roberto Ariel Abeldaño Zuñiga

57737618600

Anirudh Balakrishna Acharya

35751874500

Isaac Yeboah Addo

56305995900

Arman Abdous

57263159900

Auwal Abdullahi

56102934500

David Adzrago

57327792200

Hasan Aalruz

57216547615

Syed Hani Abidi

59663694600

Richard Gyan Aboagye

57221438826

Hassan Abolhassani

58597704600

Ulric Sena Abonie

57214797230

Habeeb Omoponle Adewuyi

57170898700

Prince Owusu Adoma

57777244400

Leticia Akua Adzigbli

57899326600

Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji

57208456508

Ahmad Y. Abuhelwa

56588047800

Dina Abushanab

57205329983

Tajudeen Adesanmi Adebisi

59997997500

Oluwatobi E. Adegbile

58998875200

Olumide Thomas Adeleke

57204237787

Miracle Ayomikun Adesina

57212196361

Temitayo Esther Adeyeoluwa

57218094241

Mache Tsadik Adhana

57219360973