The dynamic impact of oil price volatility on China's green bond market: An empirical analysis during economic shocks

Publication Name: Energy Strategy Reviews

Publication Date: 2026-03-01

Volume: 64

Issue: Unknown

Page Range: Unknown

Description:

The progressive financialization of oil, in tandem with the advancement of economic globalization, has led to a sharp increase in oil prices. The growing volatility in the global economic and financial landscape has had some impact on the green bond market. Emerging markets, such as China, are particularly interesting due to their rapid evolution. This paper empirically analyzes the dynamic impact of oil market price uncertainty on China's Green Bond (GB) using the Dynamic Conditional Correlation-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (DCC-GARCH) model. The empirical findings indicate that the uncertainty of oil has a remarkable time-varying influence on China's green bonds. Specifically, when oil prices rise, the yields on green bonds decrease. Dynamic correlation analysis reveals that oil market uncertainty exhibits a negative correlation with green bonds, with a more pronounced impact during the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, an impulse response analysis shows that long-term interactions between oil prices and green bonds gradually stabilize, and short-term fluctuations are frequent and complex due to market factors. These fluctuations were more pronounced during the COVID-19 pandemic, consistent with the above conclusions. Oil market uncertainty increases risk levels in the overall financial market, which may affect investors' perceptions of green bonds. Drawing on the research outcomes, this study presents targeted policy recommendations aimed at promoting the stable and sustainable development of China's GB market. These measures are designed to bolster the nation's transition toward a green economy and align with its long-term sustainability goals.

Open Access: Yes

DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2026.102112

Authors - 5