Eurozone inflation in times of crises: an application of cluster analysis

Publication Name: Regional Statistics

Publication Date: 2025-01-01

Volume: 15

Issue: 3

Page Range: 579-600

Description:

This study investigates whether homogeneous clusters can be identified among Eurozone countries based on the main HICP (harmonized index of consumer prices) sub-indicators between the first quarter of 2019 and the last quarter of 2023. We use hierarchical cluster analysis to explore how different Eurozone member countries can be grouped according to the different components of the HICP that reflect differences in the main causes of inflation. We point out that the factors discussed in the inflation theory literature that affect different groups of economic agents in different ways can also be interpreted geographically within the Eurozone. Baltic countries tend to follow inflation paths that are different from those of other member states, but outliers also exist among the most advanced economies in the EU. Diverging inflation patterns have much to do with economic convergence, but the dispersion of monthly inflation rates suggests that administrative pricing and policy considerations, particularly energy policy, may be responsible for most of the divergence in inflation and will largely determine the emergence of clusters from 2022 onwards. In light of the results of our study, we conclude that there may be significant differences in the adjustments of individual countries compared to the policy measures that are optimal from the European Central Bank’s perspective.

Open Access: Yes

DOI: 10.15196/RS150308

Authors - 2