Eszter Kazinczy

55957154000

Publications - 7

Evaluating Fiscal and Monetary Policy Coordination Using a Nash Equilibrium: A Case Study of Hungary

Eszter Kazinczy Mehran Amini Sara Salimi Tatay Tibor

Publication Name: Mathematics

Publication Date: 2025-05-01

Volume: 13

Issue: 9

Page Range: Unknown

Description:

Effective coordination between fiscal and monetary policy is crucial for macroeconomic stability, yet achieving it presents significant challenges due to differing objectives and institutional setups. This study evaluates the strategic interaction between fiscal and monetary authorities in Hungary from 2013 to 2023, employing the Nash equilibrium framework under the assumption of non-cooperative behavior. By modeling the authorities as independent players optimizing distinct payoff functions based on key economic indicators (interest rates, government spending, inflation, output gap, fiscal deficit, and public debt), the analysis estimates the best response strategies and computes the resulting Nash equilibrium. The key findings reveal persistent deviations between actual policies and the computed equilibrium strategies. Specifically, actual fiscal policy was consistently more expansionary (average actual deficit −2.6% to 7.6% GDP vs. equilibrium recommendations ranging from 8.5% surplus to −3.0% deficit) than the Nash equilibrium indicated, particularly during periods of economic growth. Monetary policy often lagged in equilibrium recommendations, maintaining low interest rates (e.g., 0.9% actual vs. 11.5% equilibrium in 2019) before implementing sharp increases (13% actual vs. approx. 3.5–3.8% equilibrium in 2022–2023) that significantly overshot the equilibrium. These misalignments underscore potential suboptimal outcomes arising from independent policymaking, contributing to increased public debt and heightened inflationary pressures in the Hungarian context. This study highlights the potential benefits of aligning policies closer to mutually consistent strategies, suggesting that improved coordination frameworks could enhance macroeconomic stability, offering insights relevant to Hungary and similar economies.

Open Access: Yes

DOI: 10.3390/math13091427

Private banking market developments: Evidence from Hungary

Eszter Kazinczy

Publication Name: Journal of Infrastructure Policy and Development

Publication Date: 2024-01-01

Volume: 8

Issue: 12

Page Range: Unknown

Description:

Private banking institutions serve the financial sector’s wealthiest clientele via a dedicated value proposition. Based on the relevant tendencies and statistics, a remarkable expansion can be outlined since the mid-1990s. The aim of this study is to elaborate the Hungarian private banking market’s development as a case study. The paper also intends to add to the literature on this unique segment of the financial market. Based on the available statistics, the analysis primarily focuses on the Hungarian private banking market’s rapid development process. This can be underpinned by the clientele’s savings, number of accounts and respective segmentation limits of the institutions. Referring to the amount of savings, a correlation analysis indicates significant co-movements with specific social and economic variables. The growth rate of the Hungarian clientele’s savings outperformed the respective indicator in Western Europe during the review time period (2007–2020). The current paper also includes a section that summarises general challenges that private banking managers need to address during the development process. Generally, the literature on private banking can still be considered scarce, whereas there is a lack of studies on the Central-Eastern European region. The analysis of the Hungarian sector’s development path can serve with relevant information to any financial expert in the field.

Open Access: Yes

DOI: 10.24294/jipd.v8i12.8483

Aspects of Fragility in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Eszter Kazinczy

Publication Name: Montenegrin Journal of Economics

Publication Date: 2024-01-01

Volume: 20

Issue: 2

Page Range: 145-154

Description:

Bosnia and Herzegovina remains a country with a number of deeply rooted structural challenges, which are linked to the political and the broader social sphere. The current paper provides an overview on a range of key factors that have led to the country’s fragility. During the analysis we start with the concerns related to multi-ethnic democracies, and specifically to Bosnia and Herzegovina’s unique state structure. The latter was founded in 1995, in line with the so-called Dayton Peace Agreement. We also touch upon variables that are connected to the economic and social fields, by discussing indicators that are related to labor market distortions or the level of corruption. The study provides an overview on Bosnia and Herzegovina’s position referring to international fragility indexes. Based on the analysis, we find various aspects that raise concerns regarding Bosnia and Herzegovina’s fragility.

Open Access: Yes

DOI: 10.14254/1800-5845/2024.20-2.12

Kornai’s “main line of causality”: The case of socialist Albania and SFR Yugoslavia, with a special focus on their banking sectors’ ownership structure

Eszter Kazinczy

Publication Name: Acta Oeconomica

Publication Date: 2023-11-03

Volume: 73

Issue: Unknown

Page Range: 173-190

Description:

Based on the structure of János Kornai’s ‘main line of causality’, two unique country cases are compared within the former European socialist bloc: Albania and the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. The research provides a comparative analysis with an overview of the two countries’ development between World War II and the fall of the socialist regimes. Special attention is paid to the period following the 1970s as the underlying reforms had been implemented in Yugoslavia by then, leading to fundamentally different socialist prototypes. Regarding the differences, the analysis also gives an insight into the structure of the two respective banking systems. Kornai’s ‘main line of causality’ provides the framework for the current research, supplemented by the respective literature. The analysis concludes that despite the fact that all blocks of the causality line differed in the two systems, similar challenges had to be addressed during the transition period. Furthermore, Albania and the successor states of Yugoslavia reflected a range of common characteristics, which implies the relevance of path dependence.

Open Access: Yes

DOI: 10.1556/032.2023.00041

Euro area economic growth between 2010 and 2019 in the light of secular stagnation theory

Eszter Kazinczy Tatay Tibor

Publication Name: Public Finance Quarterly

Publication Date: 2023-09-29

Volume: 69

Issue: 3

Page Range: 72-88

Description:

Achieving economic growth remains an important issue for economic policy today. Growth in developed economies has slowed considerably in recent decades. In our study, we examine economic growth in the euro area between 2010 and 2019 in the light of secular stagnation theory. The concept of secular stagnation was developed by Hansen after the Great Depression of 1929-33. According to this theory, the causes of secular stagnation are low population growth and weak technological development. The concept was brought back into the economic discourse after 2010 by Summers. Following the 2008 crisis, euro area economies should have adjusted to a higher growth rate. Instead, growth remained below 2% for all but one year, below potential output for most of the decade. Investment rates have barely risen despite euro interest rates falling to near zero. The euro areas population barely grew despite a net migration surplus, putting a brake on employment growth. The available data suggest that neither employment growth nor productivity growth have boosted economic growth. The low level of economic growth and the evolution of the underlying factors are consistent with the theoretical assumptions described by Hansen and his followers.

Open Access: Yes

DOI: 10.35551/PFQ_2023_3_4

Investigating the “Resource Curse” in China: Is it Sufficient to use the Usual Methods?

Eszter Kazinczy Eszter Lukács Norbert Kovács Katalin Völgyi Kamal Hossain Szilárd Bolla Éva Heimné Rácz Jim Hu

Publication Name: Acta Polytechnica Hungarica

Publication Date: 2023-01-01

Volume: 20

Issue: 10

Page Range: 233-252

Description:

Our article on the study of the “Resource Curse” in Chinese provinces, was written with two objectives. First, by reviewing the international and Chinese literature and analyzing the economic development of the relevant Chinese provinces, we sought to explore whether the resource curse phenomenon exists or can be demonstrated. And second, we want to draw the reader's attention to the fact that Chinese and Asian economies in general have central planning models, the main purpose of which is to define and focus on national economic development priorities. The sub-divisions of the central development plans include development targets for each region, which naturally take into account the economic performance of each province and the factors that determine it. It follows from the latter line of thinking that the economic development of the four Chinese provinces concerned (Gansu, Guizhou, Qinghai and Shanxi) cannot be interpreted in a 'piecemeal' way, based solely on the existence or otherwise of the resource curse phenomenon. In writing this article, we also wish to draw attention to this holistic, comprehensive Chinese (Asian) way of thinking.

Open Access: Yes

DOI: 10.12700/APH.20.10.2023.10.14

The two distinct systems of socialist Albania and SFR Yugoslavia: A comparative analysis using Kornai's 'Main Line of Causality'

Eszter Kazinczy

Publication Name: History of Economic Thought and Policy

Publication Date: 2021-01-01

Volume: Unknown

Issue: 2

Page Range: 31-51

Description:

This paper compares two peculiar country cases within the former European socialist bloc: Albania and the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. Based on János Kornai's 'main line of causality', we compare the two countries' main characteristics from the end of the Second World War until the fall of their socialist regimes. The goal of the paper is to demonstrate that the two neighbouring countries had similar political and economic intentions following the Second World War; yet despite this fact the analysed countries' development paths gradually diverged. As a result, the two systems differed fundamentally by the 1970s. Analysing the timeperiod in question is crucial to understand Albania's and the successor Yugoslav states' subsequent economic development.

Open Access: Yes

DOI: 10.3280/SPE2021-002002