Background: Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), previously known as non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, is one of the most prevalent liver diseases globally, contributing to both economic and health-related challenges. We aimed to evaluate the global, regional, and national burden of MASLD from 1990 to 2023, quantify the contribution of identified modifiable risk factors, and project future prevalence up to the year 2050. Methods: Estimates of MASLD prevalence and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were produced by age, sex, region, Socio-demographic Index (SDI), and Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) index across 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2023 as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023. The MASLD burden attributable to three risk factors (smoking, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose) was assessed as part of the GBD comparative risk assessment. As a secondary analysis, we used these estimates to forecast MASLD prevalence up to 2050 using fasting plasma glucose and mean BMI as predictors. Furthermore, to examine the relative contributions of population ageing, population growth, and changes in MASLD prevalence rate to the forecasted changes in case counts from 2023 to 2050, we conducted a decomposition analysis. Findings: In 2023, approximately 1·3 billion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1·2 to 1·4) individuals were estimated to be living with MASLD (ie, 16·1% of the global population), with an age-standardised prevalence rate of 14 429·3 (95% UI 13 268·3 to 15 990·6) per 100 000 population, representing a percentage increase of 142·7% (95% UI 139·2 to 146·7) in crude numbers from 1990 (0·5 billion [0·5 to 0·6]) and of 28·6% (27·8 to 29·5) in the rate (11 217·2 [10 276·8 to 12 467·0] per 100 000 in 1990). An estimated 3·6 million (2·8 to 4·5) total DALYs were attributable to MASLD worldwide in 2023, corresponding to an age-standardised DALY rate of 39·6 (31·2 to 49·9) per 100 000 population. Despite a 116·3% (93·3 to 139·4) increase in crude DALYs (from 1·7 million [1·3 to 2·1] in 1990), its age-standardised estimate remained consistent (1·8% [–8·6 to 12·8]) from 1990 (38·9 [30·1 to 49·8] per 100 000) to 2023. There was substantial variation in age-standardised estimates across regions. North Africa and the Middle East had the highest prevalence rate (29 246·1 [26 848·3 to 32 048·7] per 100 000) and Andean Latin America showed the highest DALY rate (152·3 [114·1 to 194·7] per 100 000). By contrast, the high-income Asia Pacific region had the lowest prevalence rate (8653·5 [7923·7 to 9592·8] per 100 000) and east Asia had the lowest DALY rate (16·3 [13·5 to 19·9] per 100 000) among all GBD regions. North Africa and the Middle East showed disproportionately higher prevalence rates relative to other regions with similar SDIs. Lower SDIs and HAQs were associated with higher age-standardised DALY rates. The age-standardised prevalence rate was consistently higher in males (15 616·4 [14 349·2 to 17 263·3] per 100 000 people in 2023) than in females (13 245·2 [12 132·0 to 14 692·6] per 100 000 people), and peaked at age 80–84 years in both sexes. The number of MASLD prevalent cases was the highest in younger adults, peaking at age 35–39 years for males and age 55–59 years for females. Among the risk factors for MASLD, high fasting plasma glucose presented the largest contribution to the age-standardised DALY rate of total MASLD in 2023 (2·2 [95% UI 1·6 to 3·1] per 100 000 people), followed by high BMI (1·4 [0·6 to 2·4] per 100 000 people) and smoking (1·0 [0·3 to 1·8] per 100 000 people). Our forecasting model estimates that 1·8 billion (95% UI 1·6 to 2·0) individuals are likely to have MASLD by 2050, representing a 42·0% increase from 2023. The age-standardised prevalence rate is expected to increase to 15 774·9 (95% UI 14 613·9 to 17 336·2) per 100 000 people in 2050, representing an average annual percentage change of 0·3% (95% UI 0·3–0·3). According to our decomposition analysis, this change will be primarily due to population growth, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and North Africa and Middle East, and less by population ageing or epidemiological change. Interpretation: With a global prevalence of 16·1% and approximately 1·3 billion people already living with MASLD in 2023, the condition has and will continue to have substantial health and economic impacts worldwide. An inverse association between the HAQ Index and age-standardised DALY rates suggests that countries with lower health-care access and quality might be less well positioned to manage the growing MASLD burden, underscoring the need for strengthened health-system capacity in these settings. Funding: Gates Foundation.

Life expectancy is a key indicator of population health and an important guide for health policy^1,2. Although Asia represents approximately 60% of the global population, studies of longitudinal trends in life expectancy and their underlying drivers across Asian countries remain limited, with most previous research focused on western or high-income settings^{3, 4, 5–6}. Here we provide a comprehensive analysis of life expectancy, cause-specific mortality and risk factors in 1990–2023 across 34 Asian countries and territories, utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023^1,7. Life expectancy increased in all countries and territories between 1990 and 2023, with the largest annual gains observed in South Asia and the smallest annual gains in high-income Asia Pacific countries and territories. Reductions in cardiovascular disease mortality were the primary contributors to life expectancy gains in Central Asia, East Asia and high-income Asia Pacific, whereas declines in diarrhoeal diseases and tuberculosis contributed most in South and Southeast Asia. In 2019–2023, life expectancy declined in several Asian regions, largely driven by the COVID-19 pandemic, with a nearly two-year loss in the first year of the pandemic. The causes of changes in life expectancy and the contributing risk factors varied across regions and countries/territories. Therefore, under the principles of proportional universalism, proactive and effective policies at both regional and national levels are essential to reduce premature mortality and reduce life expectancy inequalities across Asia.