Aleksandr Y. Aravkin

35386103000

Publications - 4

Global, regional, and national burden of chronic kidney disease in adults, 1990–2023, and its attributable risk factors: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023

Mohamad Amin Bakhshali Shoshana H. Ballew Ovidiu Constantin Baltatu Maciej Banach Mainak Bardhan Ahmed Abdelrahman Abdelgalil Saurav Basu Bekalu Mekonen Belay Makda Abate Belew Aminu K. Bello Luis Belo Amiel Nazer C. Bermudez Fahmi Y. Al-Ashwal Nurudeen A. Adegoke Nelson Alvis-Guzman Yaser Mohammed Al-Worafi Adel Sharaf Al-Zubairi Masoud Aman Mohammadi Hubert Amu Filippos Anagnostakis Abhishek Anil Sajjad Ahmad Neeraj Bedi Anayochukwu Edward Anyasodor Geminn Louis Carace Apostol Walter Appati Sulaimon O. Araromi Hiba Jawdat Barqawi Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader Amir Mahmoud Ahmadzade Salah Al Awaidy Syed Shujait Ali Omar Almidani Hanadi Al Hamad Syed Mahfuz Al Hasan Karem H. Alzoubi Maha Moh'd Wahbi Atout Samar Abd ElHafeez Sajjad Ahmad Nesredin Ahmed Marjan Ajami Ayman Ahmed Yazan Al Thaher Salahdein Aburuz Ashagre Molla Assaye Khursheed Aurangzeb Adedapo Wasiu Awotidebe Domenico Azzolino Muhammad Badar Lucas Guimarães Abreu Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani Bright Opoku Ahinkorah Dmitry Abramov Bilyaminu Abubakar Olugbenga Olusola Abiodun Oyelola A. Adegboye Isaac Yeboah Addo Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani Hasan Aalruz Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani M. D.Abu Bashar Shahid Bashir Mohammad Mahdi Bastan Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula Sonu Bhaskar Ajay Nagesh Bhat Temitayo Esther Adeyeoluwa Johan Ärnlöv Bernard Kwadwo Yeboah Asiamah-Asare Syed Anees Ahmed Patrick B. Mark Lauryn K. Stafford Morgan E. Grams Hansani Madushika Abeywickrama Mohammed Mehdi Abrar Khabir Ahmad Hasan Aalruz Ali Ahmadi Aram Mahmood Ahmed Shahzaib Ahmed Priyadarshini Bhattacharjee Jasvinder Singh Bhatti Salahdein Aburuz Aleksandr Y. Aravkin Mohammed Z. Allouh Mohammadreza Akbari Oluwasefunmi Akeju Mohammed Ahmed Akkaif Ziyad Al-Aly Mohammed Albashtawy Shereen M. Aleidi Ali M. Alfalki Fadwa Naji Alhalaiqa Khalid A. Alhasan Endale Alemayehu Ali Rafat Ali Syed Yusuf Ali Samah W. Al-Jabi Mohammed Z. Allouh Wesam Taher Almagharbeh Maha Moh d.Wahbi Atout Khaldoon Aied Alnawafleh Najim Z. Alshahrani Awais Altaf Sadat Abdulla Aziz Jesu Arockiaraj Yuni Asri Sadat Abdulla Aziz Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader

Publication Name: Lancet

Publication Date: 2025-11-22

Volume: 406

Issue: 10518

Page Range: 2461-2482

Description:

Background Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is common and ranks among the leading causes of mortality and morbidity. This analysis aimed to present global CKD estimates using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023 to inform evidence-based policies for CKD identification and treatment. Methods This analysis focused on adults aged 20 years and older over the period 1990 to 2023, from 204 countries and territories. Data sources used were published literature, vital registration systems, kidney failure treatment registries, and household surveys. Estimates of CKD burden, including deaths, incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), were produced using a Cause of Death Ensemble model and a Bayesian meta-regression analytical tool. A comparative risk assessment approach estimated the proportion of cardiovascular deaths attributable to impaired kidney function and estimated risk factors for CKD. Findings Globally, in 2023, 788 million (95% uncertainty interval 743–843) people aged 20 years and older were estimated to have CKD, up from 378 million (354–407) in 1990. The global age-standardised prevalence of CKD in adults was 14·2% (13·4–15·2), a relative rise of 3·5% (2·7–4·1) from 1990. The region with the highest age-standardised prevalence was north Africa and the Middle East (18·0%; 16·9–19·4). Most people had stage 1–3 CKD, with a combined prevalence of 13·9% (13·1–15·0). In 2023, CKD was the ninth leading cause of death globally, accounting for 1·48 million (1·30–1·65) deaths, and the 12th leading cause of DALYs, with an age-standardised DALY rate of 769·2 (691·8–857·4) per 100 000. Impaired kidney function as a risk factor accounted for 11·5% (8·4–14·5) of cardiovascular deaths. High fasting plasma glucose, body-mass index, and systolic blood pressure were all leading risk factors for CKD DALYs. Interpretation CKD is a major global health issue, with rising prevalence and increasing importance as a cause of death and as a risk factor for cardiovascular death. A better understating of aetiology, appropriate screening, and implementation programmes are needed to translate advances in CKD treatment into improved patient outcomes. Funding Gates Foundation, Wellcome, US National Kidney Foundation, and US National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases.

Open Access: Yes

DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(25)01853-7

Disease burden attributable to intimate partner violence against females and sexual violence against children in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2023: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023

Amani Alansari Rana Kamal Abu Farha Haroon Ahmed Muayyad M. Ahmad Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika Afolabi Kamoru Ademola Adedokun Nurudeen A. Adegoke Lisa C. Adams Armita Abedi Mesfin Abebe Hubert Amu Anayochukwu Edward Anyasodor Aqeel Ahmad Williams Agyemang-Duah Mohmmad Minwer Alnaeem Muhammad Sohail Afzal Danish Ahmad Alemwork Abie Rotimi Felix Afolabi Saira Afzal Seyyed Shamsadin Athari Samar Abd ElHafeez Mehrunnisha Sharif Ahmed Ayman Ahmed Meriem Abdoun Zufishan Alam Lucas Guimarães Abreu Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani Bright Opoku Ahinkorah Haroon Ahmed Bilyaminu Abubakar Sawsan Abuhammad Meshack Achore Roberto Ariel Abeldaño Zuñiga Asma Ahmed Hasan Aalruz Olumide Abiodun Richard Gyan Aboagye Habeeb Omoponle Adewuyi Leticia Akua Adzigbli M. D.Abu Bashar Shahid Bashir Mohammad Mahdi Bastan Oluwatobi E. Adegbile Olumide Thomas Adeleke Miracle Ayomikun Adesina Hasan Aalruz Aleksandr Y. Aravkin Roberto Ariel Abeldaño Zuñiga Melaku Birhanu Alemu Hamid Alinejad Rokny Md Al-Mamun Joseph Uy Almazan Mohmmad Minwer Alnaeem Mohammad Sharif Ibrahim Alyahya Tarek Tawfik Amin Saeed Amini Sohrab Amiri Luisa S. Flor Jimoh Amzat Cory N. Spencer Jack Cagney Montaha Al-Iede Intima Alrimawi Saeid Anvari David B. Anderson Tahira Ashraf Boluwatife Stephen Anuoluwa Julie Alaere Atta Wondu Feyisa Balcha Gabriela Fernanda Gil Siddig Ibrahim Abdelwahab Yonas Abebe Babatope Oluwadamilare Adebiyi Jorge Arias de la Torre Benedetta Armocida Alejandra Arrieta Deepavalli Arumuganainar Shereen M. Aleidi Makinde Adebayo Adeniyi Fadwa Naji Alhalaiqa Oli Ahmed Bilal Aslam Prince Atorkey Elizabeth Oluwatoyin Akin-Odanye Wole Akosile Idorenyin Ubon Akpabio Rasmieh Mustafa Al-Amer Turki M. Alanzi Asma Ahmed Sachin R. Atre Abadi Hailay Atsbaha Madhu Sudhan Atteraya Ahmed Y. Azzam B. Sheeba Khlood K. Baghlaf Atif Amin Baig Jose Balmori-de-la-Miyar Soham Bandyopadhyay Manish Barik Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo Wesam Taher Almagharbeh Azadeh Bashiri Najim Z. Alshahrani Yuni Asri Asma Ahmed

Publication Name: Lancet

Publication Date: 2026-01-03

Volume: 407

Issue: 10523

Page Range: 31-52

Description:

Background Violence against women and against children are human rights violations with lasting harms to survivors and societies at large. Intimate partner violence (IPV) and sexual violence against children (SVAC) are two major forms of such abuse. Despite their wide-reaching effects on individual and community health, these risk factors have not been adequately prioritised as key drivers of global health burden. Comprehensive x§and reliable estimates of the comparative health burden of IPV and SVAC are urgently needed to inform investments in prevention and support for survivors at both national and global levels. Methods We estimated the prevalence and attributable burden of IPV among females and SVAC among males and females for 204 countries and territories, by age and sex, from 1990 to 2023, as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2023. We searched several global databases for data on self-reported exposure to IPV and SVAC and undertook a systematic review to identify the health outcomes associated with each of these risk factors. We modelled IPV and SVAC prevalence using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, applying data adjustments to account for measurement heterogeneity. We employed burden-of-proof methodology to estimate relative risks for outcomes associated with IPV and SVAC. These estimates informed the calculation of population attributable fractions, which were then used to quantify disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributable to each risk factor. Findings Globally, in 2023, we estimated that 608 million (95% uncertainty interval 518–724) females aged 15 years and older had ever been exposed to IPV, and 1·01 billion (0·764–1·48) individuals aged 15 years and older had experienced sexual violence during childhood. 18·5 million (8·74–30·0) DALYs were attributed to IPV among females and 32·2 million (16·4–52·5) DALYs were attributed to SVAC among males and females in 2023. IPV and SVAC were among the top contributors to the global disease burden in 2023, particularly among females aged 15–49 years, ranking as the fourth and fifth leading risk factors, respectively, for DALYs in this group. Among the eight health outcomes found to be associated with IPV, anxiety disorders and major depressive disorder were the leading causes of IPV-attributed DALYs, accounting for 5·43 million (–1·25 to 14·6) and 3·96 million (1·71 to 6·92) DALYs in 2023, respectively. SVAC was associated with 14 health outcomes, including mental health disorder, substance use disorder, and chronic and infectious disease outcomes. Self-harm and schizophrenia were the leading causes of SVAC-attributed burden, with SVAC accounting for 6·71 million (2·00 to 12·7) DALYs due to self-harm and 4·15 million (–1·92 to 13·1) DALYs due to schizophrenia in 2023. Interpretation IPV and SVAC are substantial contributors to global health burden, and their health consequences span a variety of individual health outcomes. Importantly, mental health disorders account for the greatest share of disease burden among survivors. Investing in prevention of these avoidable risk factors has the potential to avert millions of DALYs and considerable premature mortality each year. Our findings represent strong evidence for global and national leaders to elevate IPV and SVAC among public health priorities. Sustained investments are needed to prevent IPV and SVAC and to implement interventions focused on supporting the complex social and health needs of survivors. Funding Gates Foundation.

Open Access: Yes

DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(25)02503-6

Global, regional, and national burden of headache disorders, 1990–2023: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023

Sharareh Eskandarieh Andre Faro Giuseppina Affinito Yaser Mohammed Al-Worafi Abhishek Anil Mohammad Amin Aalipour Hiba Jawdat Barqawi Dariush Abtahi Danish Ahmad Jalal Arabloo Syed Shujait Ali Karem H. Alzoubi Yasser Bustanji Salahdein Aburuz Khursheed Aurangzeb Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani Deldar Morad Abdulah Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani Richard Gyan Aboagye Mohammad Mahdi Bastan Sonu Bhaskar Mohammad Al-Wardat Ganiyu Adeniyi Amusa Demelash Areda Mahsa Asadi Anar Sait Ashina Joseph Uy Almazan Negar Sadat Ahmadi Mohammad Ahmmad Mahmoud Al Zoubi Mohammed Usman Ali Andreas Kattem Husøy Yvonne Yiru Xu Jaimie D. Steinmetz Samir Abu Rumeileh Obed Adonteng-Kissi Ali Ahmed Sawsan Alabbad Yazan Al-Ajlouni Ashraf Alhumaidi Gelana Fekadu Hasan Aalruz Shahzaib Ahmed Jasvinder Singh Bhatti Luis Alberto Cámera C. J. Sanjay Natalia Cruz-Martins Edoardo Caronna Ana Paula Carvalho-E-Silva Jeetendra Bhandari Patrick R. Ching Hongyuan Chu Josielli Comachio Bijit Biswas Arian Azadnia Aleksandr Y. Aravkin Youngoh Bae Sandip Chakraborty Rehana Basri Jina Behjati Mohammad Asghari-Jafarabadi Daniela Contreras Omid Dadras Gurjit Kaur Bhatti Rajbir Bhatti Emanuele D'Amico Anh Kim Dang Lucio D'Anna Bruno Bizzozero-Peroni Archith Boloor Meriem Boukhiam Sindhura Deekonda Pouria Delbari Andreas K. Demetriades Emina Dervišević Lamiaa Labieb Mahmoud Ebraheim Ebrahim Eini Michael Ekholuenetale Vijay Kumar Chattu Razieh Bahreini Maryam Bemanalizadeh Anis Ahmad Chaudhary Xiaochen Dai Vinoth Gnana Chellaiyan Devanbu Amol S. Dhane Bibha Dhungel Joseph Uy Almazan Sohrab Amiri Montaha Al-Iede David B. Anderson Mohammed Albashtawy Fadwa Naji Alhalaiqa Asma Ahmed Ahmed Y. Azzam Soham Bandyopadhyay C. J. Sanjay Natalia Cruz-Martins Valery L. Feigin Azadeh Bashiri Najim Z. Alshahrani Awais Altaf Xueting Ding Huyen Phuc Do Ojas Prakashbhai Doshi Siddhartha Dutta

Publication Name: Lancet Neurology

Publication Date: 2025-12-01

Volume: 24

Issue: 12

Page Range: 1005-1015

Description:

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023 estimates health loss from migraine, tension-type headache, and medication-overuse headache. This study presents updated results on headache-attributed burden from 1990 to 2023, along with clinical and public health implications. Methods: Data on the prevalence, incidence, or remission of migraine, tension-type headache, and medication-overuse headache were extracted from published population-based studies. We used hierarchical Bayesian meta-regression modelling to estimate global, regional, and country-level prevalence of headache disorders. For the first time in GBD 2023, age-specific and sex-specific estimates of time in symptomatic state were applied by meta-analysing individual participant data from 41 653 individuals from the general populations of 18 countries from all parts of the world. Disability weights were applied to calculate years lived with disability (YLDs). Since medication-overuse headache is a sequela of a mistreated primary headache (due to medication overuse), its burden was reattributed to migraine or tension-type headache, informed by a meta-analysis of three longitudinal studies. Findings: In 2023, 2·9 billion individuals (95% uncertainty interval 2·6–3·1) were affected by headache disorders, with a global age-standardised prevalence of 34·6% (31·6–37·5) and a YLD rate of 541·9 (373·4–739·9) per 100 000 population, with 487·5 (323·0–678·8) per 100 000 population attributed to migraine. The prevalence rates of these headache disorders have remained stable over the past three decades. YLD rates due to headache disorders were more than twice as high in females (739·9 [511·2–1011·5] per 100 000) as in males (346·1 [240·4–481·8] per 100 000). Medication-overuse headache contributed 58·9% of the YLD estimates for tension-type headache in males and 56·1% in females, as well as 22·6% of the YLD estimates for migraines in males and 14·1% in females. Interpretation: Headache disorders, in particular migraine, continue to be a major global health challenge, emphasising the need for effective management and prevention strategies. Much headache-attributed burden could be averted or eliminated by avoiding overuse of medication (including over-the-counter medication), underscoring the importance of public education. Funding: Gates Foundation.

Open Access: Yes

DOI: 10.1016/S1474-4422(25)00402-8

Global burden of cancer in children and adolescents aged 0–19 years, 1990–2023: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023

Jasvinder Singh Bhatti Sayeh Ezzikouri Ali Hasanpour- Dehkordi Takeshi Fukumoto Seyyed Shamsadin Athari Hala Rashad Elhabashy Aleksandr Y. Aravkin Paul Narh Doku Dariush Haghmorad Theophilus I. Emeto Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe Nermin Ghith Anis Ahmad Chaudhary Mahwish Arooj Hamidreza Hasani Robert Kaba Alhassan Salahdein Aburuz Lucas Guimarães Abreu Saeid Anvari Muhammad Sohail Afzal Jonathan M. Kocarnik Mosab Arafat Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan Hanadi Al Hamad Ayesha Fahim Mohammad Farahmand Lisa M. Force Adewale Oluwaseun Fadaka Nadia M. Hamdy Demelash Areda Veer Bala Gupta Maha Moh'd Wahbi Atout Natalie Pritchett Souad Bouaoud Ayman Ahmed Aso Mohammad Darwesh Cem Bilgin Dong Woo Choi Wafa A. Aldhaleei Awais Altaf Ferrán Catalá-López Danish Ahmad Bashir Dabo Rakhi Dandona Mohammed Albashtawy Mohamed Abouzid Omotayo Francis Fagbule Shirin Barati Soham Bandyopadhyay Ahmed Y. Azzam Abdulfatai Aremu Teferi Gebru Gebremeskel Arvin Haj-Mirzaian Catherine Bisignano Aragaw Tesfaw Desale Benedetta Armocida Hasan Aalruz Kayleigh Bhangdia Isaac Sunday Chukwu Md Kamrul Hasan Promit Ananyo Chakraborty Louise Penberthy Maryam Bemanalizadeh Robert Kokou Dowou Giulia Carreras Xiaochen Dai Maysaa El Sayed Zaki Johannes Haubold Mohammad Asghari-Jafarabadi Fatemeh Afrashteh John Dube Ali Hasanpour- Dehkordi Shahkaar Aziz Logan M. Glasstetter Genanew K. Getahun Sri Harsha Boppana Alistair Acheson Chiranjib Chakraborty Saroja Devi Geetha Razieh Bahreini Yohannes Habtegiorgis Abate Sabah Al-Marwani Mohammad Mahdi Bastan Samuel Demissie Darcho Thao Huynh Phuong Do Miglas Welay Gebregergis Lee Deitesfeld Abdel Rahman E'mar Mohammed Elshaer Lemessa Assefa A. Ayana Chadi Eltaha Awoke Derbie Habteyohannes Abid Ali Safwat Aly Nguyen Hoang Anh Andrew Crist Miranda L. May Maha Moh d.Wahbi Atout Hasan Aalruz Syed Anees Ahmed Demelash Areda Lalit Dandona Karem H. Alzoubi Yasser Bustanji

Publication Name: Lancet

Publication Date: 2026-04-04

Volume: 407

Issue: 10536

Page Range: 1360-1373

Description:

Background Information on childhood cancer burden is crucial for effective cancer policy planning. Unfortunately, observed paediatric cancer data are not available in every country, and previous global burden estimates have not discretely reported several common cancers of childhood. We aimed to inform efforts to address childhood cancer burden globally by analysing results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023, which now include nine additional cancer causes compared with previous GBD analyses. Methods GBD 2023 data sources for cancer estimation included population-based cancer registries, vital registration systems, and verbal autopsies. For childhood cancers (defined as those occurring at ages 0–19 years), mortality was estimated using cancer-specific ensemble models and incidence was estimated using mortality estimates and modelled mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were estimated by multiplying age-specific cancer deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age of death. Prevalence was estimated using survival estimates modelled from MIRs and multiplied by sequelae-specific disability weights to estimate years lived with disability (YLDs). Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were estimated as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. Estimates are presented globally and by geographical and resource groupings, and all estimates are presented with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). Findings Globally, in 2023, there were an estimated 377 000 incident childhood cancer cases (95% UI 288 000–489 000), 144 000 deaths (131 000–162 000), and 11·7 million (10·7–13·2) DALYs due to childhood cancer. Deaths due to childhood cancer decreased by 27·0% (15·5–36·1) globally, from 197 000 (173 000–218 000) in 1990, but increased in the WHO African region by 55·6% (25·5–92·4), from 31 500 (24 900–38 500) to 49 000 (42 600–58 200) between 1990 and 2023. In 2023, age-standardised YLLs due to childhood cancer were inversely correlated with country-level Socio-demographic Index. Childhood cancer was the eighth-leading cause of childhood deaths and the ninth-leading cause of DALYs among all cancers in 2023. The percentage of DALYs due to uncategorised childhood cancers was reduced from 26·5% (26·5–26·5) in GBD 2017 to 10·5% (8·1–13·1) with the addition of the nine new cancer causes. Target cancers for the WHO Global Initiative for Childhood Cancer (GICC) comprised 47·3% (42·2–52·0) of global childhood cancer deaths in 2023. Interpretation Global childhood cancer burden remains a substantial contributor to global childhood disease and cancer burden and is disproportionately weighted towards resource-limited settings. The estimation of additional cancer types relevant in childhood provides a step towards alignment with WHO GICC targets. Efforts to decrease global childhood cancer burden should focus on addressing the inequities in burden worldwide and support comprehensive improvements along the childhood cancer diagnosis and care continuum. Funding St Jude Children's Research Hospital, Gates Foundation, and St Baldrick's Foundation.

Open Access: Yes

DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(26)00200-X