Abdullahi Tunde Aborode

57916532700

Publications - 7

Global, regional, and national trends in routine childhood vaccination coverage from 1980 to 2023 with forecasts to 2030: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023

Catherine Bisignano Ashley A. Harris Amanda E. Smith Paulina A. Lindstedt Simeon Okechukwu Ajakwe Olivia D. Nesbit Taylor Noyes Noga Shalev Latera Tesfaye Olana Catherine M. Antony Nancy Fullman Sharareh Eskandarieh Mushood Ahmed Naveed Ahmed Rana Kamal Abu Farha Kamoru Ademola Adedokun Nurudeen A. Adegoke Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika Afolabi Giuseppina Affinito Dolapo Emmanuel Ajala Eman Abu-Gharbieh Reed J.D. Sorensen Chun Wei Yuan Stein Emil Vollset Stephen S. Lim Jonathan F. Mosser Andy Stergachis Farbod Khosravi Sonali Kochhar Armita Abedi Usha Adiga Mitra Abbasifard Mohammad Amin Aalipour Faezeh Abbaspour Tomislav Mestrovic Dariush Abtahi Ripon Kumar Adhikary Mohd Adnan Aqeel Ahmad Simon I. Hay Abdollah Jafarzadeh Williams Agyemang-Duah Hana J. Abukhadijah Danish Ahmad Amin Sharifan Rotimi Felix Afolabi Saira Afzal Emad M. Abdallah Samar Abd Elhafeez Meqdad Saleh Ahmed Muktar Beshir Ahmed Syed Anees Ahmed Suneth Buddhika Agampodi Khurshid Ahmad Tauseef Ahmad Sepehr Aghajanian Ayman Ahmed Ramy Mohamed Ghazy Meriem Abdoun Salahdein Aburuz Lucas Guimarães Abreu Alireza Shakeri Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani Emily Haeuser Sam Byrne Jason Nguyen Catalina Raggi Susan A. McLaughlin Hedayat Abbastabar Rana Kamal Abu Farha Sherief Abd-Elsalam Dmitry Abramov Adam Abdullahi Faezeh Abbaspour Reda Abdel-Hameed Samar Abd ElHafeez Atef Abdelkader Deldar Morad Abdulah Haroon Ahmed Lisa C. Adams Toufik Abdul-Rahman Constanza Elizabeth Aguilera Arriagada Mahsa Ahadi Rabbiya Ahmad Shoaib Ahmad Asrat Agalu Abejew Abdu A. Adamu Juliana Bunmi Adetunji Kulmira Abdykerimova Rahim Abo Kasem Nagah M. Abourashed Mohamed Abouzid Roberto Ariel Abeldaño Zuñiga Juan Manuel Acuna Anirudh Balakrishna Acharya Meshack Achore Ousman Adal Habeeb Abiodun Afolabi Hasan Aalruz Arman Abdous Auwal Abdullahi Bilyaminu Abubakar David Adedia Syed Hani Abidi Olumide Abiodun Hassan Abolhassani Richard Gyan Aboagye Ulric Sena Abonie Abdullahi Tunde Aborode Wakgari Mosisa Abdisa Oyelola A. Adegboye Mohammad Mahdi Bastan Dhiraj Motilal Agarwal Tajudeen Adesanmi Adebisi Oluwatobi E. Adegbile Olumide Thomas Adeleke Mache Tsadik Adhana Molalegne Bitew Feven Sahle Gebre Leticia Akua Adzigbli Alireza Mirkheshti Sohrab Salimi Seyed Mohammad Seyed Alshohadaei Hafsa Zia Gizachew Taddesse Akalu Jiawei He Prince Owusu Adoma Dorsa Salabat Mohamed Jalloh Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar Sina Shool Melika Jameie Jafar Karami Farzad Kompani Mohammad Ali Mansournia Abdolreza Mohammadi Amin Mohsenzadeh Aleksandr Y. Aravkin Omid Dadras Iman M. Talaat Ali H. Mokdad Xiaochen Dai Lalit Dandona Rakhi Dandona Sara Bagheri Fereshteh Baghizadeh Mahdis Bayat Minoo Heidari Almasi Ali Asghar Kolahi Ali Nikoobar Mohammad Mahdi Rashidi Firoozeh Madadi Mehdi Safari Mastooreh Sagharichi Maryam Shayan Georgia Smith Samuel James Herold Annie Haakenstad Christopher J.L. Murray Zahra Siavashpour Mohsen Rezaeian Shakiba Ghasemi Assl Atakan Orscelik Yigit Can Senol Michael Zastrozhin Hannah Elizabeth Robinson-Oden Amin Azizan Nazila Rezaei Pegah Salimi Pormehr Amin Sedigh Farshad Shahkarami Kazem Ghaffari Ghazal Arjmand Mahsa Asadi Anar Rasoul Ebrahimi Seyed Ataollah Madinezad Behnaz Niroomand Seyed Kiarash Sadat Rafiei Antonio Olivas-Martinez

Publication Name: Lancet

Publication Date: 2025-07-19

Volume: 406

Issue: 10500

Page Range: 235-260

Description:

Background: Since its inception in 1974, the Essential Programme on Immunization (EPI) has achieved remarkable success, averting the deaths of an estimated 154 million children worldwide through routine childhood vaccination. However, more recent decades have seen persistent coverage inequities and stagnating progress, which have been further amplified by the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2019, WHO set ambitious goals for improving vaccine coverage globally through the Immunization Agenda 2030 (IA2030). Now halfway through the decade, understanding past and recent coverage trends can help inform and reorient strategies for approaching these aims in the next 5 years. Methods: Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2023, this study provides updated global, regional, and national estimates of routine childhood vaccine coverage from 1980 to 2023 for 204 countries and territories for 11 vaccine-dose combinations recommended by WHO for all children globally. Employing advanced modelling techniques, this analysis accounts for data biases and heterogeneity and integrates new methodologies to model vaccine scale-up and COVID-19 pandemic-related disruptions. To contextualise historic coverage trends and gains still needed to achieve the IA2030 coverage targets, we supplement these results with several secondary analyses: (1) we assess the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on vaccine coverage; (2) we forecast coverage of select life-course vaccines up to 2030; and (3) we analyse progress needed to reduce the number of zero-dose children by half between 2023 and 2030. Findings: Overall, global coverage for the original EPI vaccines against diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis (first dose [DTP1] and third dose [DTP3]), measles (MCV1), polio (Pol3), and tuberculosis (BCG) nearly doubled from 1980 to 2023. However, this long-term trend masks recent challenges. Coverage gains slowed between 2010 and 2019 in many countries and territories, including declines in 21 of 36 high-income countries and territories for at least one of these vaccine doses (excluding BCG, which has been removed from routine immunisation schedules in some countries and territories). The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated these challenges, with global rates for these vaccines declining sharply since 2020, and still not returning to pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels as of 2023. Coverage for newer vaccines developed and introduced in more recent years, such as immunisations against pneumococcal disease (PCV3) and rotavirus (complete series; RotaC) and a second dose of the measles vaccine (MCV2), saw continued increases globally during the COVID-19 pandemic due to ongoing introductions and scale-ups, but at slower rates than expected in the absence of the pandemic. Forecasts to 2030 for DTP3, PCV3, and MCV2 suggest that only DTP3 would reach the IA2030 target of 90% global coverage, and only under an optimistic scenario. The number of zero-dose children, proxied as children younger than 1 year who do not receive DTP1, decreased by 74·9% (95% uncertainty interval 72·1–77·3) globally between 1980 and 2019, with most of those declines reached during the 1980s and the 2000s. After 2019, counts of zero-dose children rose to a COVID 19-era peak of 18·6 million (17·6–20·0) in 2021. Most zero-dose children remain concentrated in conflict-affected regions and those with various constraints on resources available to put towards vaccination services, particularly sub-Saharan Africa. As of 2023, more than 50% of the 15·7 million (14·6–17·0) global zero-dose children resided in just eight countries (Nigeria, India, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Somalia, Sudan, Indonesia, and Brazil), emphasising persistent inequities. Interpretation: Our estimates of current vaccine coverage and forecasts to 2030 suggest that achieving IA2030 targets, such as halving zero-dose children compared with 2019 levels and reaching 90% global coverage for life-course vaccines DTP3, PCV3, and MCV2, will require accelerated progress. Substantial increases in coverage are necessary in many countries and territories, with those in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia facing the greatest challenges. Recent declines will need to be reversed to restore previous coverage levels in Latin America and the Caribbean, especially for DTP1, DTP3, and Pol3. These findings underscore the crucial need for targeted, equitable immunisation strategies. Strengthening primary health-care systems, addressing vaccine misinformation and hesitancy, and adapting to local contexts are essential to advancing coverage. COVID-19 pandemic recovery efforts, such as WHO's Big Catch-Up, as well as efforts to bolster routine services must prioritise reaching marginalised populations and target subnational geographies to regain lost ground and achieve global immunisation goals. Funding: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance.

Open Access: Yes

DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(25)01037-2

Global, Regional, and National Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases and Risk Factors in 204 Countries and Territories, 1990-2023

Nermeen Abu-Elala Rana Kamal Abu Farha Madineh Abbasi Abdallah H.A. Abd Al Magied Kamoru Ademola Adedokun Nurudeen A. Adegoke Eman Abu-Gharbieh Lisa C. Adams Mesfin Abebe Armita Abedi Mohammad Amin Aalipour A. Bhoomadevi Bedru J. Abafita Ukachukwu O. Abaraogu Dariush Abtahi Ripon Kumar Adhikary Mohd Adnan Hasan Aalruz E. S. Abhilash Hana J. Abukhadijah Muhammad Sohail Afzal Nasir Abbas Bedru J. Abafita Tanin Adl Parvar César Agostinis Sobrinho Saira Afzal Samar Abd Elhafeez Navidha Aggarwal Olorunsola Israel Adeyomoye Nermeen Abu-Elala Prof Bhoomadevi A Benjamin A. Stark Nicole K. DeCleene Prerna Agarwal Emily C. Desai Johnathan M. Hsu Catherine O. Johnson Laura Lara-Castor Suneth Buddhika Agampodi Sepehr Aghajanian Prof Ahmed Abdelalim Salahdein Aburuz Omar M. Abdelfattah Prof Reda Abdel-Hameed Prof Wael M Abdel-Rahman Mahmoud Abdelnabi Lucas Guimarães Abreu Prof Olumide Abiodun Rui Adão Mujahid Abdullah Apurba Acharya Aminu Kende Kende Abubakar Ibrahim Jatau Abubakar Swetha Acharya Charles Oluwaseun Adetunji Rishan Adha Wirawan Adikusuma Lawan Hassan Adamu Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani Gina Agarwal Ahmed M. Afifi Fatemeh Afrashteh Hedayat Abbastabar Samar Abd ElHafeez Asrat Agalu Abejew Kulmira Abdykerimova Aidin Abedi Olugbenga Olusola Abiodun Shady Abohashem Rahim Abo Kasem Nagah M. Abourashed Dmitry Abramov Anirudh Balakrishna Acharya Meshack Achore Ousman Adal Habeeb Abiodun Afolabi Hasan Aalruz Arman Abdous Auwal Abdullahi Isaac Yeboah Addo David Adedia Hassan Abolhassani Richard Gyan Aboagye Ulric Sena Abonie Abdullahi Tunde Aborode Parsa Abdi Wakgari Mosisa Abdisa Victor Adekanmbi Kate E. LeGrand Mohammad Abavisani Oladimeji Muritala Adebayo Oyelola A. Adegboye Daba Abdissa Mohammadreza Abbasian Arya Afrooghe Dhiraj Motilal Agarwal Temesgen Anjulo Ageru Dina Abushanab Tajudeen Adesanmi Adebisi Oluwatobi E. Adegbile Olumide Thomas Adeleke David Adzrago Leticia Akua Adzigbli Nasir Abbas Prince Owusu Adoma Kishor Adhikari Salahdein Aburuz

Publication Name: Journal of the American College of Cardiology

Publication Date: 2025-12-02

Volume: 86

Issue: 22

Page Range: 2167-2243

Description:

Background: Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the leading cause of mortality and are among the foremost causes of disability globally. CVD burden has continued to increase in most countries since 1990, with trends driven by changing exposures to harmful risk factors, population growth, and population aging. Objectives: We report estimates of global, national, and subnational CVD burden, including 18 subdiseases and 12 associated modifiable risk factors. We analyzed change in CVD burden from 1990 to 2023 and identified drivers of change including population growth, population aging, and risk factor exposure. Methods: The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 study, a multinational collaborative research study, quantified burden due to 375 diseases including CVD burden and identified drivers of change from 1990 to 2023 using all available data and statistical models. GBD 2023 estimated the population-level burden of diseases in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2023. Results: CVDs were the leading cause of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and deaths estimated in the GBD. As of 2023, there were 437 million (95% UI: 401 to 465 million) CVD DALYs globally, a 1.4-fold increase from the number in 1990 of 320 million (292 to 344 million). Ischemic heart disease, intracerebral hemorrhage, ischemic stroke, and hypertensive heart disease were the leading cardiovascular causes of DALYs in 2023 globally. As of 2023, age-standardized CVD DALY rates were highest in low and low-middle Socio-demographic Index (SDI) settings and lowest in high SDI settings. The number of CVD deaths increased globally from 13.1 million (95% UI: 12.2 to 14.0 million) in 1990 to 19.2 million (95% UI: 17.4 to 20.4 million) in 2023. The number of prevalent cases of CVD more than doubled since 1990, with 311 million (95% UI: 294 to 333 million) prevalent cases of CVD in 1990 and 626 million (95% UI: 591 to 672 million) prevalent cases in 2023 globally. A total of 79.6% (95% UI: 75.7% to 82.5%) of CVD burden is attributable to modifiable risk factors 347 million [95% UI: 318 to 373 million] DALYs in 2023). Globally, high systolic blood pressure, dietary risks, high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and air pollution were the modifiable risks responsible for most attributable CVD burden in 2023. Since 1990, changes in exposure to modifiable risk factors have had mixed effects on CVD burden, with increases in high body mass index, high fasting plasma glucose, and low physical activity leading to higher burden, while reductions in tobacco usage have mitigated some of these increases. Population growth and population aging were the main drivers of the increasing burden since 1990, adding 128 million (95% UI: 115 to 139 million) and 139 million (95% UI: 126 to 151 million) CVD DALYs to the increase in CVD burden since 1990. Conclusions: CVD remains the leading cause of disease burden and death worldwide with the greatest burden in low, low-middle, and middle SDI regions. Large variation exists in CVD burden even for countries at similar levels of development, a gap explained substantially by known, modifiable risk factors that are inadequately controlled. The decades-long increase in CVD burden was the result of population growth, population aging, and increased exposure to a subset of risk factors led by metabolic risks. Countries will need to adopt effective health system and public health strategies if they are to progress in achieving global goals to reduce the burden of CVD.

Open Access: Yes

DOI: 10.1016/j.jacc.2025.08.015

Global burden of lower respiratory infections and aetiologies, 1990–2023: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023

Usha Adiga Emad M. Abdallah Dariush Abtahi Meriem Abdoun Eman Abu-Gharbieh Siddig Ibrahim Abdelwahab Anurag Agrawal Anirudh Balakrishna Acharya Mohd Adnan Victor Adekanmbi Asrat Agalu Abejew Samar Abd Elhafeez Jeza Muhamad Abdul Aziz Ripon Kumar Adhikary Nermeen Abu-Elala Auwal Abdullahi Khurshid Ahmad Rana Kamal Abu Farha Isaac Yeboah Addo Ahmad Y. Abuhelwa Nadin M.I. Abdel Razeq Sherief Abd-Elsalam Swetha Acharya Williams Agyemang-Duah Lucien R. Swetschinski Charles Oluwaseun Adetunji Juliana Bunmi Adetunji Lisa C. Adams Usman Abubakar Fuad Hamdi A. Abuadas Ali Ahmadi Ashraf Nabiel Abdalla Bright Opoku Ahinkorah Nurudeen A. Adegoke Deldar Morad Abdulah Jiawei He Austin Carter Danish Ahmad Atef Abdelkader Meshack Achore Olumide Thomas Adeleke Olifan Zewdie Abil Armita Abedi Dina Abushanab Mostafa M. Abdrabou Eve E. Wool David Adedia Kamoru Ademola Adedokun Percival Delali Delali Agordoh Muayyad M. Ahmad Aqeel Ahmad Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani Miracle Ayomikun Adesina Hedayat Abbastabar Tauseef Ahmad Ulric Sena Abonie Rabbiya Ahmad Hasan Aalruz Mohammed Altigani Abdalla Atman Adiba Chieh Han Sajjad Ahmad Mache Tsadik Adhana Rose Grace Bender Giuseppina Affinito Richard Gyan Aboagye Mohammad Amin Aalipour Sarah Brooke Sirota Mahnaz Ahmadi Navidha Aggarwal Ahmed A.J. Jabbar Ridwan Olamilekan Adesola Arman Abdous Nagah M. Abourashed Zhanar Abu Toufik Abdul-Rahman Mahsa Ahadi Ousman Adal Gizachew Beykaso Agafari Regina Mae Villanueva Dominguez Hana J. Abukhadijah Abdullahi Tunde Aborode Rabbiya Ahmad Daniel T. Araki Hassan Abolhassani Aminu Kende Abubakar Idowu Peter Adewumi Nermeen Abu-Elala Habtamu Abebe Getahun None Abdullah Faisal Ahmad Syed Hani Abidi Zahra Abbasi Dolatabadi Tajudeen Adesanmi Adebisi Kulmira Abdykerimova Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani Amanda Movo Hasan Aalruz Nagah M. Abourashed Zhanar Abu Atman Adiba Atef Abdelkader Krishna Prasad Acharya Adamu Adamu Ahmad Ijaz Ahmad Olumide Abiodun Saira Afzal Ali Ahmed

Publication Name: Lancet Infectious Diseases

Publication Date: 2026-04-01

Volume: 26

Issue: 4

Page Range: 343-361

Description:

Background: Lower respiratory infections (LRIs) remain the world's leading infectious cause of death. This analysis from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023 provides global, regional, and national estimates of LRI incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with attribution to 26 pathogens, including 11 newly modelled pathogens, across 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2023. With new data and revised modelling techniques, these estimates serve as an update and expansion to GBD 2021. Through these estimates, we also aimed to assess progress towards the 2025 Global Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Pneumonia and Diarrhoea (GAPPD) target for pneumonia mortality in children younger than 5 years. Methods: Mortality from LRIs, defined as physician-diagnosed pneumonia or bronchiolitis, was estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model with data from vital registration, verbal autopsy, surveillance, and minimally invasive tissue sampling. The Bayesian meta-regression tool DisMod-MR 2.1 was used to model overall morbidity due to LRIs. DALYs were calculated as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs) for all locations, years, age groups, and sexes. We modelled pathogen-specific case-fatality ratios (CFRs) for each age group and location using splined binomial regression to create internally consistent estimates of incidence and mortality proportions attributable to viral, fungal, parasitic, and bacterial pathogens. Progress was assessed towards the GAPPD target of less than three deaths from pneumonia per 1000 livebirths, which is roughly equivalent to a mortality rate of less than 60 deaths per 100 000 children younger than 5 years. Findings: In 2023, LRIs were responsible for 2·50 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·24–2·81) deaths and 98·7 million (87·7–112) DALYs, with children younger than 5 years and adults aged 70 years and older carrying the highest burden. LRI mortality in children younger than 5 years fell by 33·4% (10·4–47·4) since 2010, with a global mortality rate of 94·8 (75·6–116·4) per 100 000 person-years in 2023. Among adults aged 70 years and older, the burden remained substantial with only marginal declines since 2010. A mortality rate of less than 60 deaths per 100 000 for children younger than 5 years was met by 129 of the 204 modelled countries in 2023. At a super-regional level, sub-Saharan Africa had an aggregate mortality rate in children younger than 5 years (hereafter referred to as under-5 mortality rate) furthest from the GAPPD target. Streptococcus pneumoniae continued to account for the largest number of LRI deaths globally (634 000 [95% UI 565 000–721 000] deaths or 25·3% [24·5–26·1] of all LRI deaths), followed by Staphylococcus aureus (271 000 [243 000–298 000] deaths or 10·9% [10·3–11·3]), and Klebsiella pneumoniae (228 000 [204 000–261 000] deaths or 9·1% [8·8–9·5]). Among pathogens newly modelled in this study, non-tuberculous mycobacteria (responsible for 177 000 [95% UI 155 000–201 000] deaths) and Aspergillus spp (responsible for 67 800 [59 900–75 900] deaths) emerged as important contributors. Altogether, the 11 newly modelled pathogens accounted for approximately 22% of LRI deaths. Interpretation: This comprehensive analysis underscores both the gains achieved through vaccination and the challenges that remain in controlling the LRI burden globally. Furthermore, it demonstrates persistent disparities in disease burden, with the highest mortality rates concentrated in countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Globally, as well as in these high-burden locations, the under-5 LRI mortality rate remains well above the GAPPD target. Progress towards this target requires equitable access to vaccines and preventive therapies—including newer interventions such as respiratory syncytial virus monoclonal antibodies—and health systems capable of early diagnosis and treatment. Expanding surveillance of emerging pathogens, strengthening adult immunisation programmes, and combating vaccine hesitancy are also crucial. As the global population ages, the dual challenge of sustaining gains in child survival while addressing the rising vulnerability in older adults will shape future pneumonia control strategies. Funding: Gates Foundation.

Open Access: Yes

DOI: 10.1016/S1473-3099(25)00689-9

Global, regional, and national burden of meningitis, its risk factors, and aetiologies, 1990–2023: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023

Usha Adiga Emad M. Abdallah Dariush Abtahi Meriem Abdoun Eman Abu-Gharbieh Anirudh Balakrishna Acharya Mohd Adnan Mitra Abbasifard Victor Adekanmbi Asrat Agalu Abejew Oyelola A. Adegboye Samar Abd Elhafeez Jeza Muhamad Abdul Aziz Muhammad Sohail Afzal Nermeen Abu-Elala Auwal Abdullahi Khurshid Ahmad Rana Kamal Abu Farha Isaac Yeboah Addo Ahmad Y. Abuhelwa Nadin M.I. Abdel Razeq Sherief Abd-Elsalam Swetha Acharya Williams Agyemang-Duah Samir Abu Rumeileh Lucien R. Swetschinski Juliana Bunmi Adetunji Lisa C. Adams Fuad Hamdi A. Abuadas Madineh Abbasi Ali Ahmadi Omar Ahmed Abdelwahab Bright Opoku Ahinkorah Nurudeen A. Adegoke Ayman Ahmed Negar Sadat Ahmadi Rezheen Fatah Abdulrahman Danish Ahmad Meshack Achore Olumide Thomas Adeleke Olifan Zewdie Abil Armita Abedi Dina Abushanab Sawsan Abuhammad Mostafa M. Abdrabou Eve E. Wool David Adedia Kamoru Ademola Adedokun Muayyad M. Ahmad Aqeel Ahmad Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani Miracle Ayomikun Adesina Hedayat Abbastabar Tauseef Ahmad Hasan Aalruz Avina Vongpradith Mohammed Altigani Abdalla Temitayo Esther Adeyeoluwa Atman Adiba Chieh Han Sajjad Ahmad Gasha Salih Ahmed Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika Afolabi Rose Grace Bender Giuseppina Affinito Sepehr Aghajanian Richard Gyan Aboagye Rahim Abo Kasem Mohammad Amin Aalipour Sarah Brooke Sirota Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader Ahmed A.J. Jabbar Ridwan Olamilekan Adesola Arman Abdous Nagah M. Abourashed Zhanar Abu Toufik Abdul-Rahman Prince Owusu Adoma Gizachew Beykaso Agafari Regina Mae Villanueva Dominguez Hana J. Abukhadijah Abdullahi Tunde Aborode Ibrahim Banaru Abubakar Mehrunnisha Sharif Ahmed Sepideh Ahmadi Amir Mahmoud Ahmadzade Daniel T. Araki Hassan Abolhassani Aminu Kende Abubakar Idowu Peter Adewumi Faisal Ahmad Abisola Esther Abdulmalik Syed Hani Abidi Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani Amanda Movo Hasan Aalruz Haroon Ahmed Faezeh Abbaspour Krishna Prasad Acharya Suhaib Ahmad Zhanar Abu Abisola Esther Abdulmalik Olumide Abiodun Saira Afzal

Publication Name: Lancet Neurology

Publication Date: 2026-05-01

Volume: 25

Issue: 5

Page Range: 451-468

Description:

Background: Meningitis remains the leading infectious cause of neurological disabilities globally, disproportionately affecting children younger than 5 years and populations in the African meningitis belt. Whereas previous global estimates focused on ten pathogen categories, this study presents the most comprehensive analysis to date, assessing the meningitis burden attributable to 17 causative pathogens based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023 framework. Methods: GBD is a systematic, scientific effort aimed at quantifying the comparative magnitude of health loss caused by diseases, injuries, and risk factors across age groups, sexes, and geographical locations over time. We estimated meningitis mortality using the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) and morbidity using DisMod-MR 2.1, incorporating data from vital registration, verbal autopsy, surveillance, hospital data, and systematic reviews. Aetiology-specific estimates were generated with pathogen-linked case-fatality ratios and splined binomial regression models. Risk factor attribution was based on established risk–outcome pairs and population attributable fractions. Findings: In 2023, there were 259 000 (95% uncertainty interval 202 000–335 000) global deaths and 2·54 million (2·20–2·93) incident cases of meningitis. Children younger than 5 years accounted for more than a third of deaths (86 600 [53 300–149 000]). Streptococcus pneumoniae, Neisseria meningitidis, non-polio enteroviruses, and other viruses were the leading causes of death, while non-polio enteroviruses caused the most cases. The four WHO-defined preventable meningitis pathogens of interest (S pneumoniae, N meningitidis, Haemophilus influenzae, and Group B streptococcus) contributed to 98 700 deaths (77 000–127 000) and 594 000 cases (514 000–686 000). Low birthweight, short gestation, and household air pollution were the top risk factors for meningitis-related mortality. Interpretation: Although mortality and incidence have declined significantly since 1990, progress is insufficient to meet WHO 2030 targets. Despite marked progress in reducing bacterial meningitis via global vaccination campaigns, a substantial meningitis burden persists, attributable both to common pathogens such as S pneumoniae and N meningitidis and to emerging non-bacterial pathogens such as Candida spp and drug-resistant fungi. Achieving WHO goals will require sustained investment in surveillance, vaccination, maternal screening, and health-system strengthening, especially in high-burden settings. Funding: Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, and UK Department of Health and Social Care.

Open Access: Yes

DOI: 10.1016/S1474-4422(26)00101-8

Updated trends in the global prevalence and burden of mental disorders, 1990–2023: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023

Usha Adiga Thilini Chanchala Agampodi Rasmieh Mustafa Al-Amer Marjan Ajami Mohd Adnan Omar Al Omari Fadwa Naji Alhalaiqa Salahdein Aburuz Rufus Adesoji Adedoyin Khurshid Ahmad Rana Kamal Abu Farha Isaac Yeboah Addo Ahmad Y. Abuhelwa Wole Akosile Irfan Ali Nader Al-Dewik Obed Adonteng-Kissi Damian F. Santomauro Lawan Hassan Adamu César Agostinis Sobrinho Nadin M.I. Abdel Razeq Williams Agyemang-Duah Sarah Wulf Hanson Ana M. Mantilla Herrera Shady Abohashem Fahmi Y. Al-Ashwal Tariq A. Alalwan Ayman Ahmed Prince Agwu Fahad D. Algahtani Deldar Morad Abdulah Negar Sadat Ahmadi Makinde Adebayo Adeniyi John J. McGrath Holly E. Erskine Mohammed Albashtawy Khurshid Alam Meshack Achore Olumide Thomas Adeleke Babatope Oluwadamilare Adebiyi Olifan Zewdie Abil Sawsan Abuhammad Abdulelah Mastour Aldhahir David Adedia Rafat Ali Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani Miracle Ayomikun Adesina Sarah Wulf Hanson Hedayat Abbastabar Tauseef Ahmad Oli Ahmed Hasan Aalruz James G. Scott Sajjad Ahmad Zenaw Debasu Addisu Hailey Hagins Jamileh Shadid Giuseppina Affinito Richard Gyan Aboagye Mesfin Abebe Navidha Aggarwal Ali Abdolizadeh David Adzrago Ali M. Alfalki Kamran Ali Kasuni H.M. Akalanka Mohammed Usman Ali Hana J. Abukhadijah Abdullah Alarifi Abdullahi Tunde Aborode Khabir Ahmad Mohammad T. Abuawwad Amani Alansari Habeeb Abiodun Afolabi Ashley E. Akrami Saheed Ayodeji Adekola Moaz Elsayed Abouelmagd Aminu Kende Abubakar Meqdad Saleh Ahmed Paul Anthony Miller Anh Vo Habtamu Abebe Getahun Ashraf Alhumaidi Nuhu Lawan Adamu Nesredin Ahmed Abisola Esther Abdulmalik Mohammad Daud Ali Tajudeen Adesanmi Adebisi Mohammad Ahmmad Mahmoud Al Zoubi Ahmed Abdelrahman Abdelgalil Aram Mahmood Ahmed Hasan Aalruz Syed Anees Ahmed Adamu Adamu Ahmad Suhaib Ahmad Abisola Esther Abdulmalik Roberto Ariel Abeldaño Zuñiga Meklit Girma Abebe Dhikroh Oriyomi Adekola Fahmi Y. Al-Ashwal Darius Jake Roy Salah Al Awaidy Muhammad Nadeem Akhtar Ali Ahmed

Publication Name: Lancet

Publication Date: 2026-05-23

Volume: 407

Issue: 10543

Page Range: 2040-2064

Description:

Background The 2023 iteration of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) estimated prevalence, incidence, and health burden for 375 diseases and injuries, including 12 mental disorders. We assess past, current, and emerging trends in the prevalence and burden of mental disorders across sexes and age groups, for 21 regions, 204 countries and territories, and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile, from 1990 to 2023. Methods Mental disorders included in GBD 2023 were anxiety disorders, major depressive disorder, dysthymia, bipolar disorder, schizophrenia, autism spectrum disorders, conduct disorder, attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, anorexia nervosa, bulimia nervosa, idiopathic developmental intellectual disability, and a residual category of other mental disorders. A literature review identified epidemiological data for each disorder. These were analysed via a Bayesian meta-regression to estimate prevalence by disorder, sex, age, location, and year. Disorder-specific prevalence was multiplied by disability weights representing the severity of health loss associated with each disorder to estimate years lived with disability (YLDs). Deaths due to anorexia nervosa were assessed with a Cause of Death Ensemble modelling strategy to estimate deaths by sex, age, location, and year, and then multiplied by the standard life expectancy at age of death to estimate years of life lost (YLLs). YLDs equalled disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for all mental disorders except anorexia nervosa (the only mental disorder considered as an underlying cause of death in GBD), for which DALYs represented the sum of YLDs and YLLs. We presented prevalence, deaths, YLDs, YLLs, and DALYs as counts, age-specific rates per 100 000 population, and age-standardised rates per 100 000 population. Findings We estimated 1·17 billion (95% uncertainty interval 1·06–1·31) prevalent cases of mental disorders globally in 2023, equivalent to an age-standardised prevalence rate of 14 210·7 cases (12 849·5–15 940·1) per 100 000 population. These estimates represented a 95·5% (75·0–121·2) increase in prevalent cases and 24·2% (11·4–41·4) increase in age-standardised prevalence rate between 1990 and 2023. All mental disorders showed increases in prevalent cases between 1990 and 2023, while notable increases were seen in age-standardised prevalence rates for anxiety disorders, major depressive disorder, dysthymia, anorexia nervosa, bulimia nervosa, schizophrenia, and conduct disorder. There were an estimated 171 million (127–228) DALYs due to mental disorders globally across sex and age in 2023, equivalent to an age-standardised DALY rate of 2070·5 DALYs (1519·1–2750·5) per 100 000 population. Mental disorders contributed to 6·1% (4·8–7·6) of all-cause DALYs in 2023, making them the fifth leading cause of global DALYs (up from 12th in 1990). DALYs were almost entirely composed of YLDs. Mental disorders were the leading cause of YLDs in 2023 (up from second in 1990), explaining 17·3% (14·8–20·6) of all-cause global YLDs. Leading causes of mental disorder DALYs were anxiety disorders (ranked 11th among the 304 diseases and injuries at Level 4 of the GBD cause hierarchy), major depressive disorder (15th), and schizophrenia (41st). Globally in 2023, mental disorder age-standardised DALY rates were higher among females (2239·6 [1643·7–3014·1] per 100 000) than among males (1900·2 [1399·8–2510·8] per 100 000), and peaked in the 15–19 years age group (2617·3 [1850·6–3696·8] per 100 000). All locations showed increased mental disorder DALY rates in 2023 compared with 1990, ranging across countries and territories from 1302·4 (952·7–1683·7) per 100 000 in Viet Nam to 3555·8 (2661·9–4715·0) per 100 000 in the Netherlands. Across SDI quintiles, DALY rates ranged from 1853·0 (1352·1–2469·3) per 100 000 for middle SDI to 2184·1 (1606·1–2890·3) per 100 000 for high SDI. Interpretation A significant health burden was imposed by mental disorders in all countries and territories in 2023, irrespective of the health resources available. In some instances, this burden has increased over time and is unevenly distributed across populations. Stronger surveillance systems, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries, are required. Additionally, we need more coordinated and inclusive policies to reduce the burden through early treatment and prevention, tailored to sex and age differences across locations. Responding to the mental health needs of our global population, especially those most vulnerable, is an obligation, not a choice. Funding Gates Foundation, Queensland Health, and University of Queensland.

Open Access: Yes

DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(26)00519-2

Global burden of enteric infectious diseases, diarrhoeal diseases, and corresponding aetiologies, 1990–2023: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023

Usha Adiga Emad M. Abdallah Dariush Abtahi Eman Abu-Gharbieh Amr Selim Abu Lila Siddig Ibrahim Abdelwahab Rashad Abdul-Ghani Anirudh Balakrishna Acharya Mohd Adnan Lorainne Tudor Car Victor Adekanmbi Reda Abdel-Hameed Asrat Agalu Abejew Ayo Stephen Adebowale Samar Abd Elhafeez Jeza Muhamad Abdul Aziz Ripon Kumar Adhikary Muhammad Sohail Afzal Nermeen Abu-Elala Auwal Abdullahi Rana Kamal Abu Farha Isaac Yeboah Addo Ahmad Y. Abuhelwa Victor Ibukun Agbajelola Zeleke Dutamo Agde Obed Adonteng-Kissi Piyush Agrawal Swetha Acharya Charles Oluwaseun Adetunji Lisa C. Adams Fuad Hamdi A. Abuadas Madineh Abbasi Omar Ahmed Abdelwahab Nurudeen A. Adegoke Jiawei He Makinde Adebayo Adeniyi Austin Carter Abdu A. Adamu Rezheen Fatah Abdulrahman Olumide Thomas Adeleke Feleke Doyore Agide Babatope Oluwadamilare Adebiyi Olifan Zewdie Abil Samuel B. Albertson Dina Abushanab Sawsan Abuhammad David Adedia Kamoru Ademola Adedokun Percival Delali Delali Agordoh A. Bhoomadevi Catherine Bisignano Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani Oluwawemimo Oluseun Adebowale Ebenezer Afrifa-Yamoah Hasan Aalruz Avina Vongpradith Samuel M. Ostroff Richard Gyan Aboagye Molalign Aligaz Aligaz Adisu Melese Shenkut Abebe Navidha Aggarwal Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader Arman Abdous Nagah M. Abourashed Toufik Abdul-Rahman Belete Muluadam Admassie Regina Mae Villanueva Dominguez Hana J. Abukhadijah Abdullahi Tunde Aborode Abdulrakib Abdulrahim Abdelmuhsin Abdelgadir Hassan Abolhassani Adedeji Adenusi Saheed Ayodeji Adekola Yirgalem Abere Shairyar Afzal Oluwatobi E. Adegbile None Abdullah Sadik Abdulwehab Belayneh Jejaw Abate Aishah Fadila Adamu Syed Hani Abidi Tajudeen Adesanmi Adebisi Kulmira Abdykerimova Wakgari Mosisa Abdisa Alqassem H. Abuarqoub Ahmed Abdelrahman Abdelgalil Amanda Movo Rofiat Adewumi Adewumi Aderinoye-Rabiu Hasan Aalruz Krishna Prasad Acharya Meklit Girma Abebe Abdulbasit Sherfa Abduljelil Bhoomadevi A Ahmed AH Abdellatif Nermeen Abu-Elala Adekola George Adepoju Zirak Ahmed Abdulrahman Kalkidan Yibeltal Admassu Yau Adamu Nagah M. Abourashed Daniel Adeyemi Adepoju Olumide Abiodun Saira Afzal

Publication Name: Lancet Infectious Diseases

Publication Date: 2026-01-01

Volume: Unknown

Issue: Unknown

Page Range: Unknown

Description:

Background: Enteric infectious diseases claim more than 1 million lives annually and are among the top ten causes of death in children younger than 5 years. Remarkable global investment has been dedicated to enteric infectious disease prevention and control; however, the shifting global health landscape is testing the continuance of progress. To evaluate the current status and guide future interventions, we present the latest epidemiological estimates of enteric infectious diseases from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023 and assess progress towards the Global Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Pneumonia and Diarrhoea (GAPPD) mortality target of fewer than 20 deaths per 100 000 children younger than 5 years by 2025. Methods: We quantified the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of enteric infectious diseases by age, sex, and year across 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2023. In GBD 2023, the following were considered under the category of enteric infectious diseases: diarrhoeal diseases, enteric fever (typhoid and paratyphoid), invasive non-typhoidal Salmonella spp (iNTS) infections, and other intestinal infectious diseases. We also examined 15 aetiologies contributing to diarrhoeal diseases. Incidence and prevalence were estimated with DisMod-MR (version 2.1), a Bayesian meta-regression tool, drawing on data from systematic reviews, population-based surveys, claims data, and hospital sources. Cause-specific mortality was modelled with Cause of Death Ensemble Modelling based on data from sources including vital registration, mortality surveillance, verbal autopsy, and minimally invasive tissue sampling. Years of life lost and years lived with disability were computed and combined to derive DALYs. For aetiology-specific estimation, population-attributable fractions (PAFs) for 15 pathogens were derived with a counterfactual framework. Point estimates and 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated from 250 draws from the posterior distribution. Findings: In 2023, enteric infectious diseases resulted in an estimated 1·27 million (95% UI 0·963–1·68) deaths globally, declining from 3·69 million (3·04–4·56) in 1990. The global age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR) decreased from 74·1 (62·0–92·9) per 100 000 population to 16·4 (12·6–21·3) per 100 000 population during the same period. Diarrhoeal diseases accounted for most deaths in 2023 (1·11 million [0·811–1·54]), followed by enteric fever and iNTS. South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa remained the most affected regions in 2023, with 599 000 (441 000–882 000) and 501 000 (373 000–648 000) deaths due to enteric infectious diseases, respectively, predominantly from diarrhoeal disease. Rotavirus was the leading cause of all-age diarrhoeal disease deaths (PAF 16·3% [12·0–21·5]), followed by norovirus (10·2% [2·4–17·0]) and Shigella spp (9·3% [5·4–15·2]). Among children younger than 5 years, PAFs of deaths due to diarrhoeal diseases were 40·2% (32·5–48·5) for rotavirus, 24·0% (15·1–36·7) for Shigella spp, and 23·4% (13·7–34·3) for adenovirus. Across 204 countries and territories, 141 met the GAPPD mortality target in 2023. The driving aetiologies among countries that did not meet the target in 2023 varied slightly by GBD super-region, but the highest or second-highest number of deaths in children younger than 5 years were consistently attributed to rotavirus. Astrovirus and sapovirus, newly included in GBD 2023, were responsible for 24 600 (6290–49 000) and 18 800 (4650–44 400) deaths, respectively, in 2023, mainly in children younger than 5 years. Interpretation: Our findings show that mortality and ASMRs of enteric infectious diseases declined substantially between 1990 and 2023. This decline is consistent with the expansion of public health measures and broader socioeconomic development. However, the burden in 2023 remains considerably high, with the highest mortality concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia. Considering that more than a quarter of all countries had yet to meet the GAPPD mortality target in 2023, sustained efforts are needed to address the persistent burden in affected countries and to adapt to the changing global health landscape. Funding: Gates Foundation.

Open Access: Yes

DOI: 10.1016/S1473-3099(26)00194-5

Global, regional, and national burden of tuberculosis and multidrug-resistant tuberculosis by HIV status, 1990–2023: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023

Usha Adiga Emad M. Abdallah Meriem Abdoun Eman Abu-Gharbieh Amr Selim Abu Lila Siddig Ibrahim Abdelwahab Rashad Abdul-Ghani Anirudh Balakrishna Acharya Mohd Adnan Victor Adekanmbi Dhiraj Motilal Agarwal Asrat Agalu Abejew Samar Abd Elhafeez Jeza Muhamad Abdul Aziz Ripon Kumar Adhikary Muhammad Sohail Afzal Auwal Abdullahi Ukachukwu O. Abaraogu Rana Kamal Abu Farha Isaac Yeboah Addo Bilyaminu Abubakar Ahmad Y. Abuhelwa Olatunji O. Adetokunboh Ali Abuhaliema Obed Adonteng-Kissi Lawan Hassan Adamu Sherief Abd-Elsalam Swetha Acharya Williams Agyemang-Duah Mei Fong Liew Charles Oluwaseun Adetunji Juliana Bunmi Adetunji Aseel Aburub Deldar Morad Abdulah Abiola Victor Adepoju Jiawei He Makinde Adebayo Adeniyi Abdu A. Adamu Rezheen Fatah Abdulrahman Olumide Thomas Adeleke Feleke Doyore Agide Jorge R. Ledesma Babatope Oluwadamilare Adebiyi Olifan Zewdie Abil Sawsan Abuhammad Kamoru Ademola Adedokun Percival Delali Delali Agordoh Oluwawemimo Oluseun Adebowale Arailym Abilbayeva Ebenezer Afrifa-Yamoah Yasir M. Abdulateef Abdul Momin Rizwan Ahmad Mai Abdel Haleem Abusalah Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika Afolabi Samuel M. Ostroff Richard Gyan Aboagye Molalign Aligaz Aligaz Adisu Shimaa M. Aboelnaga Huong Thi Chu Navidha Aggarwal Wondimnew Desalegn Addis Ridwan Olamilekan Adesola Ali Abdolizadeh Arman Abdous Nagah M. Abourashed Prince Owusu Adoma Gizachew Beykaso Agafari Belete Muluadam Admassie Regina Mae Villanueva Dominguez Hana J. Abukhadijah Abdullahi Tunde Aborode Meixin Zhang Jianing Ma Abdulrakib Abdulrahim Hassan Abolhassani Saheed Ayodeji Adekola Sophie Mei Lin Whikehart Oluwatobi E. Adegbile Habtamu Abebe Getahun Nuhu Lawan Adamu None Abdullah Sadik Abdulwehab Belayneh Jejaw Abate Megan Verma Syed Hani Abidi Tajudeen Adesanmi Adebisi Wakgari Mosisa Abdisa Amanda Movo Mahdi Aghaalikhani Yasir M. Abdulateef Krishna Prasad Acharya Adamu Adamu Ahmad Hassan A. Abdou Zirak Ahmed Abdulrahman Nagah M. Abourashed Hatem A Eltaly Mazhar Abbas Vijay K. Aggarwal Adnan Ahmad Nermeen Abu-Elala Olumide Abiodun Saira Afzal

Publication Name: Lancet Infectious Diseases

Publication Date: 2026-01-01

Volume: Unknown

Issue: Unknown

Page Range: Unknown

Description:

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading global cause of death from a single infectious agent. Recent reductions in global health funding have threatened TB control, making comprehensive assessment of TB, HIV-related TB, and drug-resistant TB burdens before these disruptions essential for shaping effective responses. The WHO End TB Strategy sets targets of a 95% reduction in TB deaths and a 90% reduction in TB incidence between 2015 and 2035. Using results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023, this study aims to assess the burden of TB and multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB) across 204 countries and territories, and to evaluate progress towards the WHO End TB incidence and mortality targets. Methods: We quantified TB mortality using the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling platform with global vital registration, surveillance, verbal autopsy, and minimally invasive tissue sampling data. For TB morbidity estimation, we simultaneously modelled incidence, prevalence, and mortality by age and sex using DisMod-MR 2.1. A population attributable fraction (PAF) approach was applied to stratify morbidity and mortality estimates by HIV and drug-resistance status. We also calculated disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) as the sum of years of life lost and years lived with disability. For the risk factor analysis, a comparative risk assessment framework was used and PAFs were derived for alcohol use, smoking, and high fasting plasma glucose to determine the proportion of TB burden associated with these risk factors. Findings: In 2023, there were an estimated 9·11 million (95% uncertainty interval 8·04–10·3) incident cases of all-form TB, 1·22 million (0·98–1·49) deaths, and 54·6 million (43·8–65·5) DALYs globally. HIV-related TB comprised 781 000 (690 000–879 000) incident cases and 210 000 (142 000–279 000) deaths, contributing 11·0 million (7·56–14·3) DALYs. MDR-TB accounted for 466 000 (198 000–1 080 000) incident cases, 102 000 (31 700–238 000) deaths, and 3·96 million (1·31–9·01) DALYs. From 2015 to 2023, global all-form TB incidence rates declined by 19·2% (17·8–20·5) and deaths declined by 22·6% (4·7–35·7); declines were larger for drug-susceptible TB than for MDR-TB. Sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia had the highest mortality burdens in 2023; reductions in all-form TB incidence and mortality were uneven between 2000 and 2023, with limited progress in both measures in Latin America and the Caribbean. Removing smoking, alcohol use, and high fasting plasma glucose would reduce global TB deaths to 768 000 (592 000–970 000) and DALYs to 34·9 million (27·8–43·8) in 2023; MDR-TB deaths would decrease to 77 200 (23 400–183 000) and DALYs to 3·12 million (1·03–7·29). Interpretation: Global progress towards WHO End TB targets is disparate and fragile. Although many regions achieved meaningful gains, others have stagnated in recent years. The complexity of TB prevention is amplified by divergent MDR-TB trends, the persistent burden of HIV, and growing exposure to modifiable risk factors. Recent volatility in global health financing threatens to further destabilise this vulnerable epidemiological landscape; concerted action is urgently needed to temper disruptions and preserve progress. Funding: Gates Foundation.

Open Access: Yes

DOI: 10.1016/S1473-3099(26)00295-1