Rufus Adesoji Adedoyin
55947572800
Publications - 2
Burden of 375 diseases and injuries, risk-attributable burden of 88 risk factors, and healthy life expectancy in 204 countries and territories, including 660 subnational locations, 1990–2023: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023
Jeza Muhamad Abdul Aziz
Shehab Uddin Al Abid
Niveen M.E. Abu-Rmeileh
Rana Kamal Abu Farha
Cristiana Abbafati
Barkhad Aden Abdeeq
Nadin M.I. Abdel Razeq
Mohammed Altigani Abdalla
Ahmed Abdelrahman Abdelgalil
Wael M. Abdel-Rahman
Reda Abdel-Hameed
Michael Abdelmasseh
Aminu Kende Abubakar
Kamoru Ademola Adedokun
Nurudeen A. Adegoke
Isaac Ayodeji Adesina
Ashraf Nabiel Abdalla
Raghu Ram Achar
Habtamu Abebe Getahun
Eman Abu-Gharbieh
Lisa C. Adams
Armita Abedi
Usha Adiga
Mitra Abbasifard
Mohammad Amin Aalipour
A. Bhoomadevi
Hazim S. Ababneh
Ukachukwu O. Abaraogu
Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader
Ripon Kumar Adhikary
Mohd Adnan
Dariush Abtahi
Simon I. Hay
Kanyin Liane Ong
Damian F. Santomauro
Biruk Beletew Abate
Hasan Aalruz
Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari
Sepideh Abdi
Roberto Ariel Abeldaño Zuñiga
Mohammad Abdollahi
E. S. Abhilash
Alemwork Abie
Hana J. Abukhadijah
Nasir Abbas
Ilana N. Ackerman
Mesafint Molla Adane
Zenaw Debasu Addisu
Rufus Adesoji Adedoyin
Emad M. Abdallah
Samar Abd Elhafeez
Olorunsola Israel Adeyomoye
Meriem Abdoun
Salahdein Aburuz
Mahmoud Abdelnabi
Lucas Guimarães Abreu
Apurba Acharya
Lawan Hassan Adamu
Oluwafemi Atanda Adeagbo
Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani
Sherief Abd-Elsalam
Adam Abdullahi
Deldar Morad Abdulah
Toufik Abdul-Rahman
Asrat Agalu Abejew
Fuad Hamdi A. Abuadas
Kulmira Abdykerimova
Aidin Abedi
Olugbenga Olusola Abiodun
Shady Abohashem
Nagah M. Abourashed
Mohamed Abouzid
Dmitry Abramov
Roberto Ariel Abeldaño Zuñiga
Anirudh Balakrishna Acharya
Juan Manuel Acuna
Ousman Adal
Arman Abdous
Hasan Aalruz
Auwal Abdullahi
Bilyaminu Abubakar
Isaac Yeboah Addo
Sawsan Abuhammad
David Adedia
Syed Hani Abidi
Hassan Abolhassani
Olumide Abiodun
Richard Gyan Aboagye
Ulric Sena Abonie
Habeeb Omoponle Adewuyi
Oyelola A. Adegboye
Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji
Ahmad Y. Abuhelwa
Dina Abushanab
Tajudeen Adesanmi Adebisi
Oluwatobi E. Adegbile
Olumide Thomas Adeleke
Miracle Ayomikun Adesina
Temitayo Esther Adeyeoluwa
Leticia Akua Adzigbli
Nasir Abbas
Prince Owusu Adoma
Kishor Adhikari
Salahdein Aburuz
Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader
Publication Name: Lancet
Publication Date: 2025-10-18
Volume: 406
Issue: 10513
Page Range: 1873-1922
Description:
Background For more than three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has provided a framework to quantify health loss due to diseases, injuries, and associated risk factors. This paper presents GBD 2023 findings on disease and injury burden and risk-attributable health loss, offering a global audit of the state of world health to inform public health priorities. This work captures the evolving landscape of health metrics across age groups, sexes, and locations, while reflecting on the remaining post-COVID-19 challenges to achieving our collective global health ambitions. Methods The GBD 2023 combined analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 375 diseases and injuries, and risk-attributable burden associated with 88 modifiable risk factors. Of the more than 310 000 total data sources used for all GBD 2023 (about 30% of which were new to this estimation round), more than 120 000 sources were used for estimation of disease and injury burden and 59 000 for risk factor estimation, and included vital registration systems, surveys, disease registries, and published scientific literature. Data were analysed using previously established modelling approaches, such as disease modelling meta-regression version 2.1 (DisMod-MR 2.1) and comparative risk assessment methods. Diseases and injuries were categorised into four levels on the basis of the established GBD cause hierarchy, as were risk factors using the GBD risk hierarchy. Estimates stratified by age, sex, location, and year from 1990 to 2023 were focused on disease-specific time trends over the 2010–23 period and presented as counts (to three significant figures) and age-standardised rates per 100 000 person-years (to one decimal place). For each measure, 95% uncertainty intervals [UIs] were calculated with the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile ordered values from a 250-draw distribution. Findings Total numbers of global DALYs grew 6·1% (95% UI 4·0–8·1), from 2·64 billion (2·46–2·86) in 2010 to 2·80 billion (2·57–3·08) in 2023, but age-standardised DALY rates, which account for population growth and ageing, decreased by 12·6% (11·0–14·1), revealing large long-term health improvements. Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) contributed 1·45 billion (1·31–1·61) global DALYs in 2010, increasing to 1·80 billion (1·63–2·03) in 2023, alongside a concurrent 4·1% (1·9–6·3) reduction in age-standardised rates. Based on DALY counts, the leading level 3 NCDs in 2023 were ischaemic heart disease (193 million [176–209] DALYs), stroke (157 million [141–172]), and diabetes (90·2 million [75·2–107]), with the largest increases in age-standardised rates since 2010 occurring for anxiety disorders (62·8% [34·0–107·5]), depressive disorders (26·3% [11·6–42·9]), and diabetes (14·9% [7·5–25·6]). Remarkable health gains were made for communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases, with DALYs falling from 874 million (837–917) in 2010 to 681 million (642–736) in 2023, and a 25·8% (22·6–28·7) reduction in age-standardised DALY rates. During the COVID-19 pandemic, DALYs due to CMNN diseases rose but returned to pre-pandemic levels by 2023. From 2010 to 2023, decreases in age-standardised rates for CMNN diseases were led by rate decreases of 49·1% (32·7–61·0) for diarrhoeal diseases, 42·9% (38·0–48·0) for HIV/AIDS, and 42·2% (23·6–56·6) for tuberculosis. Neonatal disorders and lower respiratory infections remained the leading level 3 CMNN causes globally in 2023, although both showed notable rate decreases from 2010, declining by 16·5% (10·6–22·0) and 24·8% (7·4–36·7), respectively. Injury-related age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 15·6% (10·7–19·8) over the same period. Differences in burden due to NCDs, CMNN diseases, and injuries persisted across age, sex, time, and location. Based on our risk analysis, nearly 50% (1·27 billion [1·18–1·38]) of the roughly 2·80 billion total global DALYs in 2023 were attributable to the 88 risk factors analysed in GBD. Globally, the five level 3 risk factors contributing the highest proportion of risk-attributable DALYs were high systolic blood pressure (SBP), particulate matter pollution, high fasting plasma glucose (FPG), smoking, and low birthweight and short gestation—with high SBP accounting for 8·4% (6·9–10·0) of total DALYs. Of the three overarching level 1 GBD risk factor categories—behavioural, metabolic, and environmental and occupational—risk-attributable DALYs rose between 2010 and 2023 only for metabolic risks, increasing by 30·7% (24·8–37·3); however, age-standardised DALY rates attributable to metabolic risks decreased by 6·7% (2·0–11·0) over the same period. For all but three of the 25 leading level 3 risk factors, age-standardised rates dropped between 2010 and 2023—eg, declining by 54·4% (38·7–65·3) for unsafe sanitation, 50·5% (33·3–63·1) for unsafe water source, and 45·2% (25·6–72·0) for no access to handwashing facility, and by 44·9% (37·3–53·5) for child growth failure. The three leading level 3 risk factors for which age-standardised attributable DALY rates rose were high BMI (10·5% [0·1 to 20·9]), drug use (8·4% [2·6 to 15·3]), and high FPG (6·2% [–2·7 to 15·6]; non-significant). Interpretation Our findings underscore the complex and dynamic nature of global health challenges. Since 2010, there have been large decreases in burden due to CMNN diseases and many environmental and behavioural risk factors, juxtaposed with sizeable increases in DALYs attributable to metabolic risk factors and NCDs in growing and ageing populations. This long-observed consequence of the global epidemiological transition was only temporarily interrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic. The substantially decreasing CMNN disease burden, despite the 2008 global financial crisis and pandemic-related disruptions, is one of the greatest collective public health successes known. However, these achievements are at risk of being reversed due to major cuts to development assistance for health globally, the effects of which will hit low-income countries with high burden the hardest. Without sustained investment in evidence-based interventions and policies, progress could stall or reverse, leading to widespread human costs and geopolitical instability. Moreover, the rising NCD burden necessitates intensified efforts to mitigate exposure to leading risk factors—eg, air pollution, smoking, and metabolic risks, such as high SBP, BMI, and FPG—including policies that promote food security, healthier diets, physical activity, and equitable and expanded access to potential treatments, such as GLP-1 receptor agonists. Decisive, coordinated action is needed to address long-standing yet growing health challenges, including depressive and anxiety disorders. Yet this can be only part of the solution. Our response to the NCD syndemic—the complex interaction of multiple health risks, social determinants, and systemic challenges—will define the future landscape of global health. To ensure human wellbeing, economic stability, and social equity, global action to sustain and advance health gains must prioritise reducing disparities by addressing socioeconomic and demographic determinants, ensuring equitable health-care access, tackling malnutrition, strengthening health systems, and improving vaccination coverage. We live in times of great opportunity. Funding Gates Foundation and Bloomberg Philanthropies.
Open Access: Yes
Updated trends in the global prevalence and burden of mental disorders, 1990–2023: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023
Usha Adiga
Thilini Chanchala Agampodi
Rasmieh Mustafa Al-Amer
Marjan Ajami
Mohd Adnan
Omar Al Omari
Fadwa Naji Alhalaiqa
Salahdein Aburuz
Rufus Adesoji Adedoyin
Khurshid Ahmad
Rana Kamal Abu Farha
Isaac Yeboah Addo
Ahmad Y. Abuhelwa
Wole Akosile
Irfan Ali
Nader Al-Dewik
Obed Adonteng-Kissi
Damian F. Santomauro
Lawan Hassan Adamu
César Agostinis Sobrinho
Nadin M.I. Abdel Razeq
Williams Agyemang-Duah
Sarah Wulf Hanson
Ana M. Mantilla Herrera
Shady Abohashem
Fahmi Y. Al-Ashwal
Tariq A. Alalwan
Ayman Ahmed
Prince Agwu
Fahad D. Algahtani
Deldar Morad Abdulah
Negar Sadat Ahmadi
Makinde Adebayo Adeniyi
John J. McGrath
Holly E. Erskine
Mohammed Albashtawy
Khurshid Alam
Meshack Achore
Olumide Thomas Adeleke
Babatope Oluwadamilare Adebiyi
Olifan Zewdie Abil
Sawsan Abuhammad
Abdulelah Mastour Aldhahir
David Adedia
Rafat Ali
Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani
Miracle Ayomikun Adesina
Sarah Wulf Hanson
Hedayat Abbastabar
Tauseef Ahmad
Oli Ahmed
Hasan Aalruz
James G. Scott
Sajjad Ahmad
Zenaw Debasu Addisu
Hailey Hagins
Jamileh Shadid
Giuseppina Affinito
Richard Gyan Aboagye
Mesfin Abebe
Navidha Aggarwal
Ali Abdolizadeh
David Adzrago
Ali M. Alfalki
Kamran Ali
Kasuni H.M. Akalanka
Mohammed Usman Ali
Hana J. Abukhadijah
Abdullah Alarifi
Abdullahi Tunde Aborode
Khabir Ahmad
Mohammad T. Abuawwad
Amani Alansari
Habeeb Abiodun Afolabi
Ashley E. Akrami
Saheed Ayodeji Adekola
Moaz Elsayed Abouelmagd
Aminu Kende Abubakar
Meqdad Saleh Ahmed
Paul Anthony Miller
Anh Vo
Habtamu Abebe Getahun
Ashraf Alhumaidi
Nuhu Lawan Adamu
Nesredin Ahmed
Abisola Esther Abdulmalik
Mohammad Daud Ali
Tajudeen Adesanmi Adebisi
Mohammad Ahmmad Mahmoud Al Zoubi
Ahmed Abdelrahman Abdelgalil
Aram Mahmood Ahmed
Hasan Aalruz
Syed Anees Ahmed
Adamu Adamu Ahmad
Suhaib Ahmad
Abisola Esther Abdulmalik
Roberto Ariel Abeldaño Zuñiga
Meklit Girma Abebe
Dhikroh Oriyomi Adekola
Fahmi Y. Al-Ashwal
Darius Jake Roy
Salah Al Awaidy
Muhammad Nadeem Akhtar
Ali Ahmed
Publication Name: Lancet
Publication Date: 2026-05-23
Volume: 407
Issue: 10543
Page Range: 2040-2064
Description:
Background The 2023 iteration of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) estimated prevalence, incidence, and health burden for 375 diseases and injuries, including 12 mental disorders. We assess past, current, and emerging trends in the prevalence and burden of mental disorders across sexes and age groups, for 21 regions, 204 countries and territories, and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile, from 1990 to 2023. Methods Mental disorders included in GBD 2023 were anxiety disorders, major depressive disorder, dysthymia, bipolar disorder, schizophrenia, autism spectrum disorders, conduct disorder, attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, anorexia nervosa, bulimia nervosa, idiopathic developmental intellectual disability, and a residual category of other mental disorders. A literature review identified epidemiological data for each disorder. These were analysed via a Bayesian meta-regression to estimate prevalence by disorder, sex, age, location, and year. Disorder-specific prevalence was multiplied by disability weights representing the severity of health loss associated with each disorder to estimate years lived with disability (YLDs). Deaths due to anorexia nervosa were assessed with a Cause of Death Ensemble modelling strategy to estimate deaths by sex, age, location, and year, and then multiplied by the standard life expectancy at age of death to estimate years of life lost (YLLs). YLDs equalled disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for all mental disorders except anorexia nervosa (the only mental disorder considered as an underlying cause of death in GBD), for which DALYs represented the sum of YLDs and YLLs. We presented prevalence, deaths, YLDs, YLLs, and DALYs as counts, age-specific rates per 100 000 population, and age-standardised rates per 100 000 population. Findings We estimated 1·17 billion (95% uncertainty interval 1·06–1·31) prevalent cases of mental disorders globally in 2023, equivalent to an age-standardised prevalence rate of 14 210·7 cases (12 849·5–15 940·1) per 100 000 population. These estimates represented a 95·5% (75·0–121·2) increase in prevalent cases and 24·2% (11·4–41·4) increase in age-standardised prevalence rate between 1990 and 2023. All mental disorders showed increases in prevalent cases between 1990 and 2023, while notable increases were seen in age-standardised prevalence rates for anxiety disorders, major depressive disorder, dysthymia, anorexia nervosa, bulimia nervosa, schizophrenia, and conduct disorder. There were an estimated 171 million (127–228) DALYs due to mental disorders globally across sex and age in 2023, equivalent to an age-standardised DALY rate of 2070·5 DALYs (1519·1–2750·5) per 100 000 population. Mental disorders contributed to 6·1% (4·8–7·6) of all-cause DALYs in 2023, making them the fifth leading cause of global DALYs (up from 12th in 1990). DALYs were almost entirely composed of YLDs. Mental disorders were the leading cause of YLDs in 2023 (up from second in 1990), explaining 17·3% (14·8–20·6) of all-cause global YLDs. Leading causes of mental disorder DALYs were anxiety disorders (ranked 11th among the 304 diseases and injuries at Level 4 of the GBD cause hierarchy), major depressive disorder (15th), and schizophrenia (41st). Globally in 2023, mental disorder age-standardised DALY rates were higher among females (2239·6 [1643·7–3014·1] per 100 000) than among males (1900·2 [1399·8–2510·8] per 100 000), and peaked in the 15–19 years age group (2617·3 [1850·6–3696·8] per 100 000). All locations showed increased mental disorder DALY rates in 2023 compared with 1990, ranging across countries and territories from 1302·4 (952·7–1683·7) per 100 000 in Viet Nam to 3555·8 (2661·9–4715·0) per 100 000 in the Netherlands. Across SDI quintiles, DALY rates ranged from 1853·0 (1352·1–2469·3) per 100 000 for middle SDI to 2184·1 (1606·1–2890·3) per 100 000 for high SDI. Interpretation A significant health burden was imposed by mental disorders in all countries and territories in 2023, irrespective of the health resources available. In some instances, this burden has increased over time and is unevenly distributed across populations. Stronger surveillance systems, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries, are required. Additionally, we need more coordinated and inclusive policies to reduce the burden through early treatment and prevention, tailored to sex and age differences across locations. Responding to the mental health needs of our global population, especially those most vulnerable, is an obligation, not a choice. Funding Gates Foundation, Queensland Health, and University of Queensland.
Open Access: Yes