Ayman Ahmed

57199492030

Publications - 9

Global, regional, and national trends in routine childhood vaccination coverage from 1980 to 2023 with forecasts to 2030: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023

Catherine Bisignano Ashley A. Harris Amanda E. Smith Paulina A. Lindstedt Simeon Okechukwu Ajakwe Olivia D. Nesbit Taylor Noyes Noga Shalev Latera Tesfaye Olana Catherine M. Antony Nancy Fullman Sharareh Eskandarieh Mushood Ahmed Naveed Ahmed Rana Kamal Abu Farha Kamoru Ademola Adedokun Nurudeen A. Adegoke Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika Afolabi Giuseppina Affinito Dolapo Emmanuel Ajala Eman Abu-Gharbieh Reed J.D. Sorensen Chun Wei Yuan Stein Emil Vollset Stephen S. Lim Jonathan F. Mosser Andy Stergachis Farbod Khosravi Sonali Kochhar Armita Abedi Usha Adiga Mitra Abbasifard Mohammad Amin Aalipour Faezeh Abbaspour Tomislav Mestrovic Ripon Kumar Adhikary Mohd Adnan Aqeel Ahmad Dariush Abtahi Simon I. Hay Abdollah Jafarzadeh Williams Agyemang-Duah Hana J. Abukhadijah Danish Ahmad Amin Sharifan Rotimi Felix Afolabi Saira Afzal Emad M. Abdallah Samar Abd Elhafeez Meqdad Saleh Ahmed Muktar Beshir Ahmed Syed Anees Ahmed Khurshid Ahmad Suneth Buddhika Agampodi Tauseef Ahmad Ayman Ahmed Ramy Mohamed Ghazy Sepehr Aghajanian Meriem Abdoun Salahdein Aburuz Lucas Guimarães Abreu Alireza Shakeri Emily Haeuser Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani Sam Byrne Jason Nguyen Catalina Raggi Susan A. McLaughlin Sherief Abd-Elsalam Rana Kamal Abu Farha Hedayat Abbastabar Dmitry Abramov Faezeh Abbaspour Reda Abdel-Hameed Adam Abdullahi Samar Abd ElHafeez Atef Abdelkader Deldar Morad Abdulah Haroon Ahmed Lisa C. Adams Toufik Abdul-Rahman Constanza Elizabeth Aguilera Arriagada Mahsa Ahadi Rabbiya Ahmad Shoaib Ahmad Asrat Agalu Abejew Abdu A. Adamu Juliana Bunmi Adetunji Kulmira Abdykerimova Rahim Abo Kasem Nagah M. Abourashed Mohamed Abouzid Roberto Ariel Abeldaño Zuñiga Anirudh Balakrishna Acharya Juan Manuel Acuna Ousman Adal Meshack Achore Habeeb Abiodun Afolabi Arman Abdous Hasan Aalruz Auwal Abdullahi Bilyaminu Abubakar David Adedia Syed Hani Abidi Hassan Abolhassani Olumide Abiodun Richard Gyan Aboagye Ulric Sena Abonie Abdullahi Tunde Aborode Wakgari Mosisa Abdisa Oyelola A. Adegboye Mohammad Mahdi Bastan Dhiraj Motilal Agarwal Tajudeen Adesanmi Adebisi Oluwatobi E. Adegbile Olumide Thomas Adeleke Hafsa Zia Mache Tsadik Adhana Gizachew Taddesse Akalu Molalegne Bitew Feven Sahle Gebre Alireza Mirkheshti Sohrab Salimi Seyed Mohammad Seyed Alshohadaei Leticia Akua Adzigbli Jiawei He Prince Owusu Adoma Dorsa Salabat Mohamed Jalloh Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar Sina Shool Melika Jameie Jafar Karami Farzad Kompani Mohammad Ali Mansournia Abdolreza Mohammadi Amin Mohsenzadeh Aleksandr Y. Aravkin Omid Dadras Iman M. Talaat Ali H. Mokdad Xiaochen Dai Lalit Dandona Rakhi Dandona Sara Bagheri Fereshteh Baghizadeh Mahdis Bayat Minoo Heidari Almasi Ali Asghar Kolahi Ali Nikoobar Mohammad Mahdi Rashidi Firoozeh Madadi Mehdi Safari Mastooreh Sagharichi Maryam Shayan Zahra Siavashpour Mohsen Rezaeian Shakiba Ghasemi Assl Atakan Orscelik Yigit Can Senol Michael Zastrozhin Amin Azizan Nazila Rezaei Pegah Salimi Pormehr Amin Sedigh Farshad Shahkarami Kazem Ghaffari Georgia Smith Samuel James Herold Annie Haakenstad Christopher J.L. Murray Hannah Elizabeth Robinson-Oden Ghazal Arjmand Mahsa Asadi Anar Rasoul Ebrahimi Seyed Ataollah Madinezad Behnaz Niroomand Seyed Kiarash Sadat Rafiei Antonio Olivas-Martinez

Publication Name: Lancet

Publication Date: 2025-07-19

Volume: 406

Issue: 10500

Page Range: 235-260

Description:

Background: Since its inception in 1974, the Essential Programme on Immunization (EPI) has achieved remarkable success, averting the deaths of an estimated 154 million children worldwide through routine childhood vaccination. However, more recent decades have seen persistent coverage inequities and stagnating progress, which have been further amplified by the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2019, WHO set ambitious goals for improving vaccine coverage globally through the Immunization Agenda 2030 (IA2030). Now halfway through the decade, understanding past and recent coverage trends can help inform and reorient strategies for approaching these aims in the next 5 years. Methods: Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2023, this study provides updated global, regional, and national estimates of routine childhood vaccine coverage from 1980 to 2023 for 204 countries and territories for 11 vaccine-dose combinations recommended by WHO for all children globally. Employing advanced modelling techniques, this analysis accounts for data biases and heterogeneity and integrates new methodologies to model vaccine scale-up and COVID-19 pandemic-related disruptions. To contextualise historic coverage trends and gains still needed to achieve the IA2030 coverage targets, we supplement these results with several secondary analyses: (1) we assess the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on vaccine coverage; (2) we forecast coverage of select life-course vaccines up to 2030; and (3) we analyse progress needed to reduce the number of zero-dose children by half between 2023 and 2030. Findings: Overall, global coverage for the original EPI vaccines against diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis (first dose [DTP1] and third dose [DTP3]), measles (MCV1), polio (Pol3), and tuberculosis (BCG) nearly doubled from 1980 to 2023. However, this long-term trend masks recent challenges. Coverage gains slowed between 2010 and 2019 in many countries and territories, including declines in 21 of 36 high-income countries and territories for at least one of these vaccine doses (excluding BCG, which has been removed from routine immunisation schedules in some countries and territories). The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated these challenges, with global rates for these vaccines declining sharply since 2020, and still not returning to pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels as of 2023. Coverage for newer vaccines developed and introduced in more recent years, such as immunisations against pneumococcal disease (PCV3) and rotavirus (complete series; RotaC) and a second dose of the measles vaccine (MCV2), saw continued increases globally during the COVID-19 pandemic due to ongoing introductions and scale-ups, but at slower rates than expected in the absence of the pandemic. Forecasts to 2030 for DTP3, PCV3, and MCV2 suggest that only DTP3 would reach the IA2030 target of 90% global coverage, and only under an optimistic scenario. The number of zero-dose children, proxied as children younger than 1 year who do not receive DTP1, decreased by 74·9% (95% uncertainty interval 72·1–77·3) globally between 1980 and 2019, with most of those declines reached during the 1980s and the 2000s. After 2019, counts of zero-dose children rose to a COVID 19-era peak of 18·6 million (17·6–20·0) in 2021. Most zero-dose children remain concentrated in conflict-affected regions and those with various constraints on resources available to put towards vaccination services, particularly sub-Saharan Africa. As of 2023, more than 50% of the 15·7 million (14·6–17·0) global zero-dose children resided in just eight countries (Nigeria, India, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Somalia, Sudan, Indonesia, and Brazil), emphasising persistent inequities. Interpretation: Our estimates of current vaccine coverage and forecasts to 2030 suggest that achieving IA2030 targets, such as halving zero-dose children compared with 2019 levels and reaching 90% global coverage for life-course vaccines DTP3, PCV3, and MCV2, will require accelerated progress. Substantial increases in coverage are necessary in many countries and territories, with those in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia facing the greatest challenges. Recent declines will need to be reversed to restore previous coverage levels in Latin America and the Caribbean, especially for DTP1, DTP3, and Pol3. These findings underscore the crucial need for targeted, equitable immunisation strategies. Strengthening primary health-care systems, addressing vaccine misinformation and hesitancy, and adapting to local contexts are essential to advancing coverage. COVID-19 pandemic recovery efforts, such as WHO's Big Catch-Up, as well as efforts to bolster routine services must prioritise reaching marginalised populations and target subnational geographies to regain lost ground and achieve global immunisation goals. Funding: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance.

Open Access: Yes

DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(25)01037-2

The global, regional, and national burden of cancer, 1990–2023, with forecasts to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023

Amani Alansari Ibukun Modupe Adesiyan Abdallah H.A. Abd Al Magied Mohammed Altigani Abdalla Arash Abdollahi Wael M. Abdel-Rahman Aminu Kende Abubakar Ahmed Abu-Zaid Kamoru Ademola Adedokun Nurudeen A. Adegoke Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika Afolabi Mohadese Ahmadzade Anisuddin Ahmed Fahmi Y. Al-Ashwal Dolapo Emmanuel Ajala Ashraf Nabiel Abdalla Raghu Ram Achar Eman Abu-Gharbieh Lisa C. Adams Muayyad M. Ahmad Maryam Abbasalipour bashash Mesfin Abebe Armita Abedi Sajjad Ahmad Syed Anees Ahmed Usha Adiga Faisal Ahmad Sajjad Ahmad A. Bhoomadevi Aqeel Ahmad Lisa M. Force Hasan Aalruz Kayleigh Bhangdia Jonathan M. Kocarnik Miranda L. May Feleke Doyore Agide Andrew Crist Williams Agyemang-Duah Roland Eghoghosoa Akhigbe Karolina Akinosoglou Omar Al Omari Alemwork Abie Hana J. Abukhadijah Muhammad Sohail Afzal Danish Ahmad Amir Mahmoud Ahmadzade Salah Al Awaidy Nasir Abbas Maryam Abbasalipour bashash Hanadi Al Hamad Syed Mahfuz Al Hasan Samar Abd Elhafeez Navidha Aggarwal Gasha Salih Ahmed Mehrunnisha Sharif Ahmed Meqdad Saleh Ahmed Muktar Beshir Ahmed Nesredin Ahmed Marjan Ajami Mohammad Al Qadire Syed Anees Ahmed Khurshid Ahmad Suneth Buddhika Agampodi César Agostinis Sobrinho Tauseef Ahmad Elham Ahmadi Ayman Ahmed Meriem Abdoun Salahdein Aburuz Yazan Al Thaher Zufishan Alam Lucas Guimarães Abreu Lawan Hassan Adamu Bhoomadevi A Louise Penberthy Natalie Pritchett Alistair Acheson Lee Deitesfeld Ahmed M. Afifi Bright Opoku Ahinkorah Fatemeh Afrashteh Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani Juan Manuel Acuna Arman Abdous Hasan Aalruz Auwal Abdullahi Bilyaminu Abubakar Isaac Yeboah Addo Syed Hani Abidi Hassan Abolhassani Olumide Abiodun Richard Gyan Aboagye Ulric Sena Abonie Habeeb Omoponle Adewuyi Parsa Abdi Wakgari Mosisa Abdisa Luai A. Ahmed Victor Adekanmbi Ibrar Ahmed Daba Abdissa Arya Afrooghe Omar Ali Mohammed Al Zaabi Khurshid Alam Leticia Akua Adzigbli Nasir Abbas Prince Owusu Adoma Khurshid Ahmad

Publication Name: Lancet

Publication Date: 2025-10-11

Volume: 406

Issue: 10512

Page Range: 1565-1586

Description:

Background: Cancer is a leading cause of death globally. Accurate cancer burden information is crucial for policy planning, but many countries do not have up-to-date cancer surveillance data. To inform global cancer-control efforts, we used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023 framework to generate and analyse estimates of cancer burden for 47 cancer types or groupings by age, sex, and 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2023, cancer burden attributable to selected risk factors from 1990 to 2023, and forecasted cancer burden up to 2050. Methods: Cancer estimation in GBD 2023 used data from population-based cancer registration systems, vital registration systems, and verbal autopsies. Cancer mortality was estimated using ensemble models, with incidence informed by mortality estimates and mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Prevalence estimates were generated from modelled survival estimates, then multiplied by disability weights to estimate years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were estimated by multiplying age-specific cancer deaths by the GBD standard life expectancy at the age of death. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were calculated as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. We used the GBD 2023 comparative risk assessment framework to estimate cancer burden attributable to 44 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. To forecast cancer burden from 2024 to 2050, we used the GBD 2023 forecasting framework, which included forecasts of relevant risk factor exposures and used Socio-demographic Index as a covariate for forecasting the proportion of each cancer not affected by these risk factors. Progress towards the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target 3.4 aim to reduce non-communicable disease mortality by a third between 2015 and 2030 was estimated for cancer. Findings: In 2023, excluding non-melanoma skin cancers, there were 18·5 million (95% uncertainty interval 16·4 to 20·7) incident cases of cancer and 10·4 million (9·65 to 10·9) deaths, contributing to 271 million (255 to 285) DALYs globally. Of these, 57·9% (56·1 to 59·8) of incident cases and 65·8% (64·3 to 67·6) of cancer deaths occurred in low-income to upper-middle-income countries based on World Bank income group classifications. Cancer was the second leading cause of deaths globally in 2023 after cardiovascular diseases. There were 4·33 million (3·85 to 4·78) risk-attributable cancer deaths globally in 2023, comprising 41·7% (37·8 to 45·4) of all cancer deaths. Risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 72·3% (57·1 to 86·8) from 1990 to 2023, whereas overall global cancer deaths increased by 74·3% (62·2 to 86·2) over the same period. The reference forecasts (the most likely future) estimate that in 2050 there will be 30·5 million (22·9 to 38·9) cases and 18·6 million (15·6 to 21·5) deaths from cancer globally, 60·7% (41·9 to 80·6) and 74·5% (50·1 to 104·2) increases from 2024, respectively. These forecasted increases in deaths are greater in low-income and middle-income countries (90·6% [61·0 to 127·0]) compared with high-income countries (42·8% [28·3 to 58·6]). Most of these increases are likely due to demographic changes, as age-standardised death rates are forecast to change by –5·6% (–12·8 to 4·6) between 2024 and 2050 globally. Between 2015 and 2030, the probability of dying due to cancer between the ages of 30 years and 70 years was forecasted to have a relative decrease of 6·5% (3·2 to 10·3). Interpretation: Cancer is a major contributor to global disease burden, with increasing numbers of cases and deaths forecasted up to 2050 and a disproportionate growth in burden in countries with scarce resources. The decline in age-standardised mortality rates from cancer is encouraging but insufficient to meet the SDG target set for 2030. Effectively and sustainably addressing cancer burden globally will require comprehensive national and international efforts that consider health systems and context in the development and implementation of cancer-control strategies across the continuum of prevention, diagnosis, and treatment. Funding: Gates Foundation, St Jude Children's Research Hospital, and St Baldrick's Foundation.

Open Access: Yes

DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(25)01635-6

The burden of bacterial antimicrobial resistance in the WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region 1990–2021: a cross-country systematic analysis with forecasts to 2050

Haroon Ahmed Armita Abedi Hmwe Hmwe Kyu Gisela Robles Aguilar Nicole Davis Weaver Eve E. Wool Shahkaar Aziz Tomislav Mestrovic Khalil Azizian Lucien R. Swetschinski Neeraj Bedi Aqeel Ahmad Hiba Jawdat Barqawi James A. Berkley Kenneth Chukwuemeka Iregbu Nabi Jomehzadeh Faisal Ismail Abdollah Jafarzadeh Mahsa Jalili Reza Jalilzadeh Yengejeh Elham Jamshidi Daniel T. Araki Anna Gershberg Hayoon Authia Gray B Chieh Han Jessica Andretta Mendes Jason R. Andrews Amir Mahmoud Ahmadzade Kevin S. Ikuta Rasool Haddadi Mostafa Hadei Sobia Ahsan Halim Emily Rosenblad Zahid Ali Liaqat Ali Abid Ali Syed Shujait Ali Sabah Al-Marwani Omar Almidani Ayesha Fahim Ali Fatehizadeh Muhammed Shaffi Fazaludeen Koya Alireza Feizkhah Saira Afzal Rami H. Al-Rifai Jaffar A. Al-Tawfiq Karem H. Alzoubi Seyyed Shamsadin Athari Maha Moh'd Wahbi Atout Sina Azadnajafabad Natalia V. Bhattacharjee Colin Stewart Brown Ben S. Cooper Sama Ghoba Konstantinos Giannakis Kamal Hezam Mehdi Hosseinzadeh Rebecca L. Hsu Nawfal R. Hussein Mohammad Tarique Imam Omar Makram DE, DF Elaheh Malakan Rad Florian Marks Barney McManigal Yasser Bustanji Christiane Dolecek Abdelaziz Ed-Dra Iman El Sayed Waseem El-Huneidi Christelle Elias Zul Kamal Hengameh Kasraei Faham Khamesipour Nihar Ranjan Dash Muhammed Elhadi Sally Ellis Mohsen Naghavi Ayman Ahmed Ramy Mohamed Ghazy Denise O. Garrett Samer Hamidi Ahmed I. Hasaballah Ibrahim Elsohaby Salahdein Aburuz Babak Eshrati Feriha Fatima Khidri Suwimon Khusuwan Mohammed Kuddus Mansour Adam Mahmoud Sherief Abd-Elsalam Haroon Ahmed Abid Ali Hasan Aalruz Nabi Jomehzadeh Hassan Abolhassani Zarrin Basharat Jalal Arabloo Mosab Arafat Tim Eckmanns Andrea Haekyung Haselbeck Simon Hay B, C Rumina Syeda Hasan Hamidreza Hasani Salahdein Aburuz Mohammad Tarique Imam

Publication Name: Lancet Public Health

Publication Date: 2025-11-01

Volume: 10

Issue: 11

Page Range: e955-e970

Description:

Background Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is an urgent global crisis and one of the world's most complex challenges. Although there is increasing evidence of its impact on human mortality and morbidity, precise burden estimation has many challenges, and thus far has been elusive for the Eastern Mediterranean Region. Here, we present a comprehensive time-trend analysis of regional and country-level AMR burden estimates in the WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR), between 1990 and 2021, with forecasts up to 2050. Methods We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributable to and associated with AMR for 11 infectious syndromes, 22 bacterial pathogens, and 84 pathogen–drug combinations for the WHO EMR and each of its countries from 1990 to 2021. Data were obtained from mortality registries, surveillance systems, hospital records, systematic literature reviews, and other sources. We based our modelling approach on five broad components: the number of deaths in which infection had a role, the proportion of infectious deaths attributable to a given infectious syndrome, the proportion of infectious syndrome deaths attributable to a given pathogen, the percentage of a given pathogen resistant to an antimicrobial drug of interest, and the excess risk of mortality (or duration of an infection) associated with this resistance. These components were then used to estimate the disease burden by using two counterfactual scenarios: deaths and DALYs attributable to AMR (considering an alternative scenario where drug-resistant infections are replaced with susceptible infections), and deaths and DALYs associated with AMR (considering an alternative scenario where infections would not occur at all). Predictive statistical modelling was applied to generate estimates of AMR burden for each country. We also generated AMR burden forecasts up to 2050. We generated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for the final estimates by taking the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles across 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline, and models were cross-validated for out-of-sample predictive validity. Findings We estimated 380 000 deaths (95% UI 332 000–426 000) associated with bacterial AMR and 92 800 deaths (78 300–111 000) attributable to bacterial AMR in the EMR in 2021. In the past 31 years, there was considerable variation in AMR mortality trends across countries of the region and different age groups. Between 1990 and 2021, associated deaths among children younger than 5 years decreased by 50·0% (38·2–62·0), while those among adults aged 70 and older rose by over 85·7% (95% UI 57·0–115·7). Six pathogens were identified as the primary generators of burden: Streptococcus pneumoniae, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Escherichia coli, Staphylococcus aureus, Acinetobacter baumannii , and Pseudomonas aeruginosa . A substantial increase in the AMR burden due to S aureus was observed between 1990 (28 200 deaths [21 600–34 000]) and 2021 (49 500 deaths [43 100–56 200]); consequently, in 2021, methicillin-resistant S aureus was a leading pathogen–drug combination for most countries in the region for deaths and DALYs attributable to, and associated with AMR. Somalia had the highest age-standardised mortality rates in the region: for deaths attributable to and associated with AMR per 100 000 population in both 1990 and 2021; conversely, the country with the lowest burden in the EMR was Qatar. By 2050, the number of deaths attributable to AMR in region is forecasted to reach 187 000 (157 000–223 000) and deaths associated with AMR were projected to reach 752 000 (629 000–879 000). Interpretation Our study shows that bacterial AMR has been a serious public health threat in the EMR for more than 30 years, with a substantial fatal and non-fatal burden for priority bacterial pathogens and pathogen–drug combinations. The magnitude of this issue, future projects, and the inadequate response capacity in many countries underscore the need for more stringent regional leadership in this field. The insights gained from this study can direct targeted mitigation strategies for individual countries within the region, aiding in resource allocation and funding decisions, and emphasising the need for collaborative multisectoral endeavours among nations to address this issue. Funding Wellcome Trust, and the UK Department of Health and Social Care using aid funding managed by the Fleming Fund.

Open Access: Yes

DOI: 10.1016/S2468-2667(25)00201-4

Global, regional, and national burden of chronic kidney disease in adults, 1990–2023, and its attributable risk factors: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023

Mohamad Amin Bakhshali Shoshana H. Ballew Ovidiu Constantin Baltatu Maciej Banach Mainak Bardhan Ahmed Abdelrahman Abdelgalil Saurav Basu Bekalu Mekonen Belay Makda Abate Belew Aminu K. Bello Luis Belo Amiel Nazer C. Bermudez Nurudeen A. Adegoke Fahmi Y. Al-Ashwal Nelson Alvis-Guzman Yaser Mohammed Al-Worafi Adel Sharaf Al-Zubairi Masoud Aman Mohammadi Hubert Amu Abhishek Anil Sajjad Ahmad Sulaimon O. Araromi Geminn Louis Carace Apostol Walter Appati Neeraj Bedi Filippos Anagnostakis Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader Anayochukwu Edward Anyasodor Hiba Jawdat Barqawi Amir Mahmoud Ahmadzade Salah Al Awaidy Syed Shujait Ali Omar Almidani Hanadi Al Hamad Syed Mahfuz Al Hasan Karem H. Alzoubi Maha Moh'd Wahbi Atout Samar Abd Elhafeez Sajjad Ahmad Nesredin Ahmed Marjan Ajami Ayman Ahmed Salahdein Aburuz Yazan Al Thaher Ashagre Molla Assaye Khursheed Aurangzeb Adedapo Wasiu Awotidebe Domenico Azzolino Lucas Guimarães Abreu Bright Opoku Ahinkorah Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani Olugbenga Olusola Abiodun Dmitry Abramov Hasan Aalruz Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani Bilyaminu Abubakar Isaac Yeboah Addo Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani Oyelola A. Adegboye Muhammad Badar Mohammad Mahdi Bastan Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula Sonu Bhaskar M. D.Abu Bashar Shahid Bashir Temitayo Esther Adeyeoluwa Johan Ärnlöv Bernard Kwadwo Yeboah Asiamah-Asare Patrick B. Mark Hasan Aalruz Lauryn K. Stafford Morgan E. Grams Hansani Madushika Abeywickrama Mohammed Mehdi Abrar Khabir Ahmad Ali Ahmadi Aram Mahmood Ahmed Priyadarshini Bhattacharjee Jasvinder Singh Bhatti Aleksandr Y. Aravkin Salahdein Aburuz Mohammed Z. Allouh Mohammadreza Akbari Oluwasefunmi Akeju Mohammed Ahmed Akkaif Ziyad Al-Aly Mohammed Albashtawy Shereen M. Aleidi Ali M. Alfalki Fadwa Naji Alhalaiqa Khalid A. Alhasan Endale Alemayehu Ali Rafat Ali Syed Yusuf Ali Maha Moh d.Wahbi Atout Mohammed Z. Allouh Khaldoon Aied Alnawafleh Sadat Abdulla Aziz Wesam Taher Almagharbeh Awais Altaf Samah W. Al-Jabi Najim Z. Alshahrani Jesu Arockiaraj Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader Shahzaib Ahmed Syed Anees Ahmed Yuni Asri Ajay Nagesh Bhat Sadat Abdulla Aziz

Publication Name: Lancet

Publication Date: 2025-11-22

Volume: 406

Issue: 10518

Page Range: 2461-2482

Description:

Background Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is common and ranks among the leading causes of mortality and morbidity. This analysis aimed to present global CKD estimates using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023 to inform evidence-based policies for CKD identification and treatment. Methods This analysis focused on adults aged 20 years and older over the period 1990 to 2023, from 204 countries and territories. Data sources used were published literature, vital registration systems, kidney failure treatment registries, and household surveys. Estimates of CKD burden, including deaths, incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), were produced using a Cause of Death Ensemble model and a Bayesian meta-regression analytical tool. A comparative risk assessment approach estimated the proportion of cardiovascular deaths attributable to impaired kidney function and estimated risk factors for CKD. Findings Globally, in 2023, 788 million (95% uncertainty interval 743–843) people aged 20 years and older were estimated to have CKD, up from 378 million (354–407) in 1990. The global age-standardised prevalence of CKD in adults was 14·2% (13·4–15·2), a relative rise of 3·5% (2·7–4·1) from 1990. The region with the highest age-standardised prevalence was north Africa and the Middle East (18·0%; 16·9–19·4). Most people had stage 1–3 CKD, with a combined prevalence of 13·9% (13·1–15·0). In 2023, CKD was the ninth leading cause of death globally, accounting for 1·48 million (1·30–1·65) deaths, and the 12th leading cause of DALYs, with an age-standardised DALY rate of 769·2 (691·8–857·4) per 100 000. Impaired kidney function as a risk factor accounted for 11·5% (8·4–14·5) of cardiovascular deaths. High fasting plasma glucose, body-mass index, and systolic blood pressure were all leading risk factors for CKD DALYs. Interpretation CKD is a major global health issue, with rising prevalence and increasing importance as a cause of death and as a risk factor for cardiovascular death. A better understating of aetiology, appropriate screening, and implementation programmes are needed to translate advances in CKD treatment into improved patient outcomes. Funding Gates Foundation, Wellcome, US National Kidney Foundation, and US National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases.

Open Access: Yes

DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(25)01853-7

Disease burden attributable to intimate partner violence against females and sexual violence against children in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2023: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023

Amani Alansari Rana Kamal Abu Farha Haroon Ahmed Kamoru Ademola Adedokun Nurudeen A. Adegoke Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika Afolabi Lisa C. Adams Muayyad M. Ahmad Mesfin Abebe Armita Abedi Hubert Amu Anayochukwu Edward Anyasodor Aqeel Ahmad Williams Agyemang-Duah Mohmmad Minwer Alnaeem Alemwork Abie Muhammad Sohail Afzal Danish Ahmad Rotimi Felix Afolabi Saira Afzal Seyyed Shamsadin Athari Samar Abd Elhafeez Mehrunnisha Sharif Ahmed Ayman Ahmed Meriem Abdoun Zufishan Alam Lucas Guimarães Abreu Bright Opoku Ahinkorah Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani Haroon Ahmed Roberto Ariel Abeldaño Zuñiga Asma Ahmed Meshack Achore Hasan Aalruz Bilyaminu Abubakar Sawsan Abuhammad Olumide Abiodun Richard Gyan Aboagye Habeeb Omoponle Adewuyi Mohammad Mahdi Bastan M. D.Abu Bashar Shahid Bashir Oluwatobi E. Adegbile Olumide Thomas Adeleke Miracle Ayomikun Adesina Leticia Akua Adzigbli Hasan Aalruz Aleksandr Y. Aravkin Roberto Ariel Abeldaño Zuñiga Oli Ahmed Elizabeth Oluwatoyin Akin-Odanye Wole Akosile Idorenyin Ubon Akpabio Rasmieh Mustafa Al-Amer Shereen M. Aleidi Turki M. Alanzi Fadwa Naji Alhalaiqa Melaku Birhanu Alemu Hamid Alinejad Rokny Md Al-Mamun Joseph Uy Almazan Siddig Ibrahim Abdelwahab Babatope Oluwadamilare Adebiyi Makinde Adebayo Adeniyi Mohmmad Minwer Alnaeem Mohammad Sharif Ibrahim Alyahya Tarek Tawfik Amin Luisa S. Flor Cory N. Spencer Jack Cagney Gabriela Fernanda Gil Asma Ahmed Saeed Amini Sohrab Amiri Jimoh Amzat David B. Anderson Montaha Al-Iede Intima Alrimawi Saeid Anvari Yonas Abebe Boluwatife Stephen Anuoluwa Jorge Arias de la Torre Benedetta Armocida Alejandra Arrieta Wesam Taher Almagharbeh Deepavalli Arumuganainar Bilal Aslam Prince Atorkey Sachin R. Atre Abadi Hailay Atsbaha Madhu Sudhan Atteraya Ahmed Y. Azzam B. Sheeba Khlood K. Baghlaf Najim Z. Alshahrani Jose Balmori-de-la-Miyar Soham Bandyopadhyay Julie Alaere Atta Asma Ahmed Atif Amin Baig Manish Barik Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo Azadeh Bashiri Tahira Ashraf Yuni Asri Wondu Feyisa Balcha

Publication Name: Lancet

Publication Date: 2026-01-03

Volume: 407

Issue: 10523

Page Range: 31-52

Description:

Background Violence against women and against children are human rights violations with lasting harms to survivors and societies at large. Intimate partner violence (IPV) and sexual violence against children (SVAC) are two major forms of such abuse. Despite their wide-reaching effects on individual and community health, these risk factors have not been adequately prioritised as key drivers of global health burden. Comprehensive x§and reliable estimates of the comparative health burden of IPV and SVAC are urgently needed to inform investments in prevention and support for survivors at both national and global levels. Methods We estimated the prevalence and attributable burden of IPV among females and SVAC among males and females for 204 countries and territories, by age and sex, from 1990 to 2023, as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2023. We searched several global databases for data on self-reported exposure to IPV and SVAC and undertook a systematic review to identify the health outcomes associated with each of these risk factors. We modelled IPV and SVAC prevalence using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, applying data adjustments to account for measurement heterogeneity. We employed burden-of-proof methodology to estimate relative risks for outcomes associated with IPV and SVAC. These estimates informed the calculation of population attributable fractions, which were then used to quantify disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributable to each risk factor. Findings Globally, in 2023, we estimated that 608 million (95% uncertainty interval 518–724) females aged 15 years and older had ever been exposed to IPV, and 1·01 billion (0·764–1·48) individuals aged 15 years and older had experienced sexual violence during childhood. 18·5 million (8·74–30·0) DALYs were attributed to IPV among females and 32·2 million (16·4–52·5) DALYs were attributed to SVAC among males and females in 2023. IPV and SVAC were among the top contributors to the global disease burden in 2023, particularly among females aged 15–49 years, ranking as the fourth and fifth leading risk factors, respectively, for DALYs in this group. Among the eight health outcomes found to be associated with IPV, anxiety disorders and major depressive disorder were the leading causes of IPV-attributed DALYs, accounting for 5·43 million (–1·25 to 14·6) and 3·96 million (1·71 to 6·92) DALYs in 2023, respectively. SVAC was associated with 14 health outcomes, including mental health disorder, substance use disorder, and chronic and infectious disease outcomes. Self-harm and schizophrenia were the leading causes of SVAC-attributed burden, with SVAC accounting for 6·71 million (2·00 to 12·7) DALYs due to self-harm and 4·15 million (–1·92 to 13·1) DALYs due to schizophrenia in 2023. Interpretation IPV and SVAC are substantial contributors to global health burden, and their health consequences span a variety of individual health outcomes. Importantly, mental health disorders account for the greatest share of disease burden among survivors. Investing in prevention of these avoidable risk factors has the potential to avert millions of DALYs and considerable premature mortality each year. Our findings represent strong evidence for global and national leaders to elevate IPV and SVAC among public health priorities. Sustained investments are needed to prevent IPV and SVAC and to implement interventions focused on supporting the complex social and health needs of survivors. Funding Gates Foundation.

Open Access: Yes

DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(25)02503-6

Global, regional, and national burden of breast cancer among females, 1990–2023, with forecasts to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023

Usha Adiga Meriem Abdoun Eman Abu-Gharbieh Anisuddin Ahmed Siddig Ibrahim Abdelwahab Roland Eghoghosoa Akhigbe Marjan Ajami Mohd Adnan Victor Adekanmbi Mehrandokht Abedini Reda Abdel-Hameed Samar Abd Elhafeez Rabail Alam Muhammad Sohail Afzal Jonathan M. Kocarnik Auwal Abdullahi Ukachukwu O. Abaraogu Khurshid Ahmad Rana Kamal Abu Farha Isaac Yeboah Addo Bilyaminu Abubakar Juan Manuel Acuna Nasir Abbas Hanadi Al Hamad César Agostinis Sobrinho Habeeb Omoponle Adewuyi Swetha Acharya Williams Agyemang-Duah Lisa C. Adams Fuad Hamdi A. Abuadas Dagninet Derebe Abie Ali Ahmadi Yazan Al Thaher Bright Opoku Ahinkorah Natalie Pritchett Nurudeen A. Adegoke Ayman Ahmed Deldar Morad Abdulah Kedir Hussein Abegaz Syed Mahfuz Al Hasan Mohammad Al Qadire Danish Ahmad Mohammed Albashtawy Feleke Doyore Agide Babatope Oluwadamilare Adebiyi Armita Abedi Dina Abushanab David Adedia Muktar Beshir Ahmed Kamoru Ademola Adedokun A. Bhoomadevi Muayyad M. Ahmad Aqeel Ahmad Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani Miracle Ayomikun Adesina Domenico Albano Ulric Sena Abonie Mai Abdel Haleem Abusalah Hasan Aalruz Kayleigh Bhangdia Temitayo Esther Adeyeoluwa Gasha Salih Ahmed Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika Afolabi Louise Penberthy Richard Gyan Aboagye Mesfin Abebe Mahnaz Ahmadi Hazim S. Ababneh Zhanar Abu Toufik Abdul-Rahman Naveed Ahmed Hana J. Abukhadijah Leticia Akua Adzigbli Alistair Acheson Alemwork Abie Mehrunnisha Sharif Ahmed Hassan Abolhassani Arash Abdollahi Dolapo Emmanuel Ajala Saheed Ayodeji Adekola Aminu Kende Abubakar Abebaw Alamrew Lee Deitesfeld Austin J. Ahlstrom Meqdad Saleh Ahmed None Abdullah Mohammed Mehdi Abrar Mohammad Ahmmad Mahmoud Al Zoubi Kulmira Abdykerimova Andrew Crist Miranda L. May Aram Mahmood Ahmed Sepideh Abdi Hasan Aalruz Syed Anees Ahmed Haroon Ahmed Zhanar Abu MD Faisal Ahmed Bhoomadevi A Salah Al Awaidy Wael M. Abdel-Rahman Olumide Abiodun Muhammad Nadeem Akhtar

Publication Name: Lancet Oncology

Publication Date: 2026-03-01

Volume: 27

Issue: 3

Page Range: 302-326

Description:

Background Breast cancer is a leading cause of mortality and morbidity among females worldwide. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023, we provided an updated comprehensive assessment of the epidemiological trends, disease burden, and risk factors associated with breast cancer globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2023. Methods Breast cancer incidence, mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were estimated by age and sex for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2023. Mortality estimates were generated using GBD Cause of Death Ensemble models, leveraging data from population-based cancer registration systems, vital registration systems, and verbal autopsies. Mortality-to-incidence ratios were calculated to derive both mortality and incidence estimates. Prevalence was calculated by combining incidence and modelled survival estimates. YLLs were established by multiplying age-specific deaths with the GBD standard life expectancy at the age of death. YLDs were estimated by applying disability weights to prevalence estimates. The sum of YLLs and YLDs equalled the number of DALYs. Breast cancer burden attributable to seven risk factors was examined through the comparative risk assessment framework. The GBD forecasting framework was used to forecast breast cancer incidence and mortality from 2024 to 2050. Age-standardised rates were calculated for each metric using the GBD 2023 world standard population. Findings In 2023, there were an estimated 2·30 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·01 to 2·61) breast cancer incident cases, 764 000 deaths (672 000 to 854 000), and 24·1 million (21·3 to 27·5) DALYs among females globally. In the World Bank low-income group, where a low age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR) was estimated (44·2 per 100 000 person-years [31·2 to 58·4]), the age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR) was the highest (24·1 per 100 000 [16·8 to 31·9]). The highest ASIR was in the high-income group (75·7 per 100 000 [67·1 to 84·0]), and the lowest ASMR was in the upper-middle-income group (11·2 per 100 000 [10·2 to 12·3]). Between 1990 and 2023, the ASIR in the low-income group increased by 147·2% (38·1 to 271·7), compared with a 1·2% (–11·5 to 17·2) change in the high-income group. The ASMR decreased in the high-income group, changing by –29·9% (–33·6 to –25·9), but increased by 99·3% (12·5 to 202·9) in the low-income group. The increase in age-standardised DALY rates followed that of ASMRs. Risk factors such as dietary risks, tobacco use, and high fasting plasma glucose contributed to 28·3% (16·6 to 38·9) of breast cancer DALYs in 2023. The risk factors with a decrease in attributable DALYs between 1990 and 2023 were high alcohol use and tobacco. By 2050, the global incident cases of breast cancer among females were forecast to reach 3·56 million (2·29 to 4·83), with 1·37 million (0·841 to 2·02) deaths. Interpretation The stable incidence and declining mortality rates of female breast cancer in high-income nations reflect success in screening, diagnosis, and treatment. In contrast, the concurrent rise in incidence and mortality in other regions signals health system deficits. Without effective interventions, many countries will fall short of the WHO Global Breast Cancer Initiative's ambitious target of achieving an annual reduction of 2·5% in age-standardised mortality rates by 2040. The mounting breast cancer burden, disproportionately affecting some of the world's most vulnerable populations, will further exacerbate health inequalities across the globe without decisive immediate action. Funding Gates Foundation, St Jude Children's Research Hospital.

Open Access: Yes

DOI: 10.1016/S1470-2045(25)00730-2

Global burden of cancer in children and adolescents aged 0–19 years, 1990–2023: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023

Jasvinder Singh Bhatti Sayeh Ezzikouri Ali Hasanpour- Dehkordi Takeshi Fukumoto Seyyed Shamsadin Athari Hala Rashad Elhabashy Aleksandr Y. Aravkin Paul Narh Doku Dariush Haghmorad Theophilus I. Emeto Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe Nermin Ghith Anis Ahmad Chaudhary Mahwish Arooj Hamidreza Hasani Robert Kaba Alhassan Salahdein Aburuz Lucas Guimarães Abreu Saeid Anvari Muhammad Sohail Afzal Jonathan M. Kocarnik Mosab Arafat Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan Hanadi Al Hamad Ayesha Fahim Mohammad Farahmand Lisa M. Force Adewale Oluwaseun Fadaka Nadia M. Hamdy Demelash Areda Veer Bala Gupta Maha Moh'd Wahbi Atout Natalie Pritchett Souad Bouaoud Ayman Ahmed Aso Mohammad Darwesh Cem Bilgin Dong Woo Choi Wafa A. Aldhaleei Awais Altaf Ferrán Catalá-López Danish Ahmad Bashir Dabo Rakhi Dandona Mohammed Albashtawy Mohamed Abouzid Omotayo Francis Fagbule Shirin Barati Soham Bandyopadhyay Ahmed Y. Azzam Abdulfatai Aremu Teferi Gebru Gebremeskel Arvin Haj-Mirzaian Catherine Bisignano Aragaw Tesfaw Desale Benedetta Armocida Hasan Aalruz Kayleigh Bhangdia Isaac Sunday Chukwu Md Kamrul Hasan Promit Ananyo Chakraborty Louise Penberthy Maryam Bemanalizadeh Robert Kokou Dowou Giulia Carreras Xiaochen Dai Maysaa El Sayed Zaki Johannes Haubold Mohammad Asghari-Jafarabadi Fatemeh Afrashteh John Dube Ali Hasanpour- Dehkordi Shahkaar Aziz Logan M. Glasstetter Genanew K. Getahun Sri Harsha Boppana Alistair Acheson Chiranjib Chakraborty Saroja Devi Geetha Razieh Bahreini Yohannes Habtegiorgis Abate Sabah Al-Marwani Mohammad Farahmand Mohammad Mahdi Bastan Samuel Demissie Darcho Thao Huynh Phuong Do Miglas Welay Gebregergis Lee Deitesfeld Abdel Rahman E'mar Mohammed Elshaer Lemessa Assefa A. Ayana Chadi Eltaha Awoke Derbie Habteyohannes Abid Ali Safwat Aly Nguyen Hoang Anh Andrew Crist Miranda L. May Maha Moh d.Wahbi Atout Hasan Aalruz Syed Anees Ahmed Demelash Areda Mohammad Farahmand Lalit Dandona Karem H. Alzoubi Yasser Bustanji

Publication Name: Lancet

Publication Date: 2026-04-04

Volume: 407

Issue: 10536

Page Range: 1360-1373

Description:

Background Information on childhood cancer burden is crucial for effective cancer policy planning. Unfortunately, observed paediatric cancer data are not available in every country, and previous global burden estimates have not discretely reported several common cancers of childhood. We aimed to inform efforts to address childhood cancer burden globally by analysing results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023, which now include nine additional cancer causes compared with previous GBD analyses. Methods GBD 2023 data sources for cancer estimation included population-based cancer registries, vital registration systems, and verbal autopsies. For childhood cancers (defined as those occurring at ages 0–19 years), mortality was estimated using cancer-specific ensemble models and incidence was estimated using mortality estimates and modelled mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were estimated by multiplying age-specific cancer deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age of death. Prevalence was estimated using survival estimates modelled from MIRs and multiplied by sequelae-specific disability weights to estimate years lived with disability (YLDs). Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were estimated as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. Estimates are presented globally and by geographical and resource groupings, and all estimates are presented with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). Findings Globally, in 2023, there were an estimated 377 000 incident childhood cancer cases (95% UI 288 000–489 000), 144 000 deaths (131 000–162 000), and 11·7 million (10·7–13·2) DALYs due to childhood cancer. Deaths due to childhood cancer decreased by 27·0% (15·5–36·1) globally, from 197 000 (173 000–218 000) in 1990, but increased in the WHO African region by 55·6% (25·5–92·4), from 31 500 (24 900–38 500) to 49 000 (42 600–58 200) between 1990 and 2023. In 2023, age-standardised YLLs due to childhood cancer were inversely correlated with country-level Socio-demographic Index. Childhood cancer was the eighth-leading cause of childhood deaths and the ninth-leading cause of DALYs among all cancers in 2023. The percentage of DALYs due to uncategorised childhood cancers was reduced from 26·5% (26·5–26·5) in GBD 2017 to 10·5% (8·1–13·1) with the addition of the nine new cancer causes. Target cancers for the WHO Global Initiative for Childhood Cancer (GICC) comprised 47·3% (42·2–52·0) of global childhood cancer deaths in 2023. Interpretation Global childhood cancer burden remains a substantial contributor to global childhood disease and cancer burden and is disproportionately weighted towards resource-limited settings. The estimation of additional cancer types relevant in childhood provides a step towards alignment with WHO GICC targets. Efforts to decrease global childhood cancer burden should focus on addressing the inequities in burden worldwide and support comprehensive improvements along the childhood cancer diagnosis and care continuum. Funding St Jude Children's Research Hospital, Gates Foundation, and St Baldrick's Foundation.

Open Access: Yes

DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(26)00200-X

Global, regional, and national burden of meningitis, its risk factors, and aetiologies, 1990–2023: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023

Usha Adiga Emad M. Abdallah Dariush Abtahi Meriem Abdoun Eman Abu-Gharbieh Anirudh Balakrishna Acharya Mohd Adnan Mitra Abbasifard Victor Adekanmbi Asrat Agalu Abejew Oyelola A. Adegboye Samar Abd Elhafeez Jeza Muhamad Abdul Aziz Muhammad Sohail Afzal Nermeen Abu-Elala Auwal Abdullahi Khurshid Ahmad Rana Kamal Abu Farha Isaac Yeboah Addo Ahmad Y. Abuhelwa Nadin M.I. Abdel Razeq Sherief Abd-Elsalam Swetha Acharya Williams Agyemang-Duah Samir Abu Rumeileh Lucien R. Swetschinski Juliana Bunmi Adetunji Lisa C. Adams Fuad Hamdi A. Abuadas Madineh Abbasi Ali Ahmadi Omar Ahmed Abdelwahab Bright Opoku Ahinkorah Nurudeen A. Adegoke Ayman Ahmed Negar Sadat Ahmadi Rezheen Fatah Abdulrahman Danish Ahmad Meshack Achore Olumide Thomas Adeleke Olifan Zewdie Abil Armita Abedi Dina Abushanab Sawsan Abuhammad Mostafa M. Abdrabou Eve E. Wool David Adedia Kamoru Ademola Adedokun Muayyad M. Ahmad Aqeel Ahmad Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani Miracle Ayomikun Adesina Hedayat Abbastabar Tauseef Ahmad Hasan Aalruz Avina Vongpradith Mohammed Altigani Abdalla Temitayo Esther Adeyeoluwa Atman Adiba Chieh Han Sajjad Ahmad Gasha Salih Ahmed Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika Afolabi Rose Grace Bender Giuseppina Affinito Sepehr Aghajanian Richard Gyan Aboagye Rahim Abo Kasem Mohammad Amin Aalipour Sarah Brooke Sirota Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader Ahmed A.J. Jabbar Ridwan Olamilekan Adesola Arman Abdous Nagah M. Abourashed Zhanar Abu Toufik Abdul-Rahman Prince Owusu Adoma Gizachew Beykaso Agafari Regina Mae Villanueva Dominguez Hana J. Abukhadijah Abdullahi Tunde Aborode Ibrahim Banaru Abubakar Mehrunnisha Sharif Ahmed Sepideh Ahmadi Amir Mahmoud Ahmadzade Daniel T. Araki Hassan Abolhassani Aminu Kende Abubakar Idowu Peter Adewumi Faisal Ahmad Abisola Esther Abdulmalik Syed Hani Abidi Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani Amanda Movo Hasan Aalruz Haroon Ahmed Faezeh Abbaspour Krishna Prasad Acharya Suhaib Ahmad Zhanar Abu Abisola Esther Abdulmalik Olumide Abiodun Saira Afzal

Publication Name: Lancet Neurology

Publication Date: 2026-05-01

Volume: 25

Issue: 5

Page Range: 451-468

Description:

Background: Meningitis remains the leading infectious cause of neurological disabilities globally, disproportionately affecting children younger than 5 years and populations in the African meningitis belt. Whereas previous global estimates focused on ten pathogen categories, this study presents the most comprehensive analysis to date, assessing the meningitis burden attributable to 17 causative pathogens based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023 framework. Methods: GBD is a systematic, scientific effort aimed at quantifying the comparative magnitude of health loss caused by diseases, injuries, and risk factors across age groups, sexes, and geographical locations over time. We estimated meningitis mortality using the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) and morbidity using DisMod-MR 2.1, incorporating data from vital registration, verbal autopsy, surveillance, hospital data, and systematic reviews. Aetiology-specific estimates were generated with pathogen-linked case-fatality ratios and splined binomial regression models. Risk factor attribution was based on established risk–outcome pairs and population attributable fractions. Findings: In 2023, there were 259 000 (95% uncertainty interval 202 000–335 000) global deaths and 2·54 million (2·20–2·93) incident cases of meningitis. Children younger than 5 years accounted for more than a third of deaths (86 600 [53 300–149 000]). Streptococcus pneumoniae, Neisseria meningitidis, non-polio enteroviruses, and other viruses were the leading causes of death, while non-polio enteroviruses caused the most cases. The four WHO-defined preventable meningitis pathogens of interest (S pneumoniae, N meningitidis, Haemophilus influenzae, and Group B streptococcus) contributed to 98 700 deaths (77 000–127 000) and 594 000 cases (514 000–686 000). Low birthweight, short gestation, and household air pollution were the top risk factors for meningitis-related mortality. Interpretation: Although mortality and incidence have declined significantly since 1990, progress is insufficient to meet WHO 2030 targets. Despite marked progress in reducing bacterial meningitis via global vaccination campaigns, a substantial meningitis burden persists, attributable both to common pathogens such as S pneumoniae and N meningitidis and to emerging non-bacterial pathogens such as Candida spp and drug-resistant fungi. Achieving WHO goals will require sustained investment in surveillance, vaccination, maternal screening, and health-system strengthening, especially in high-burden settings. Funding: Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, and UK Department of Health and Social Care.

Open Access: Yes

DOI: 10.1016/S1474-4422(26)00101-8

Updated trends in the global prevalence and burden of mental disorders, 1990–2023: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023

Usha Adiga Thilini Chanchala Agampodi Rasmieh Mustafa Al-Amer Marjan Ajami Mohd Adnan Omar Al Omari Fadwa Naji Alhalaiqa Salahdein Aburuz Rufus Adesoji Adedoyin Khurshid Ahmad Rana Kamal Abu Farha Isaac Yeboah Addo Ahmad Y. Abuhelwa Wole Akosile Irfan Ali Nader Al-Dewik Obed Adonteng-Kissi Damian F. Santomauro Lawan Hassan Adamu César Agostinis Sobrinho Nadin M.I. Abdel Razeq Williams Agyemang-Duah Sarah Wulf Hanson Ana M. Mantilla Herrera Shady Abohashem Fahmi Y. Al-Ashwal Tariq A. Alalwan Ayman Ahmed Prince Agwu Fahad D. Algahtani Deldar Morad Abdulah Negar Sadat Ahmadi Makinde Adebayo Adeniyi John J. McGrath Holly E. Erskine Mohammed Albashtawy Khurshid Alam Meshack Achore Olumide Thomas Adeleke Babatope Oluwadamilare Adebiyi Olifan Zewdie Abil Sawsan Abuhammad Abdulelah Mastour Aldhahir David Adedia Rafat Ali Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani Miracle Ayomikun Adesina Sarah Wulf Hanson Hedayat Abbastabar Tauseef Ahmad Oli Ahmed Hasan Aalruz James G. Scott Sajjad Ahmad Zenaw Debasu Addisu Hailey Hagins Jamileh Shadid Giuseppina Affinito Richard Gyan Aboagye Mesfin Abebe Navidha Aggarwal Ali Abdolizadeh David Adzrago Ali M. Alfalki Kamran Ali Kasuni H.M. Akalanka Mohammed Usman Ali Hana J. Abukhadijah Abdullah Alarifi Abdullahi Tunde Aborode Khabir Ahmad Mohammad T. Abuawwad Amani Alansari Habeeb Abiodun Afolabi Ashley E. Akrami Saheed Ayodeji Adekola Moaz Elsayed Abouelmagd Aminu Kende Abubakar Meqdad Saleh Ahmed Paul Anthony Miller Anh Vo Habtamu Abebe Getahun Ashraf Alhumaidi Nuhu Lawan Adamu Nesredin Ahmed Abisola Esther Abdulmalik Mohammad Daud Ali Tajudeen Adesanmi Adebisi Mohammad Ahmmad Mahmoud Al Zoubi Ahmed Abdelrahman Abdelgalil Aram Mahmood Ahmed Hasan Aalruz Syed Anees Ahmed Adamu Adamu Ahmad Suhaib Ahmad Abisola Esther Abdulmalik Roberto Ariel Abeldaño Zuñiga Meklit Girma Abebe Dhikroh Oriyomi Adekola Fahmi Y. Al-Ashwal Darius Jake Roy Salah Al Awaidy Muhammad Nadeem Akhtar Ali Ahmed

Publication Name: Lancet

Publication Date: 2026-05-23

Volume: 407

Issue: 10543

Page Range: 2040-2064

Description:

Background The 2023 iteration of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) estimated prevalence, incidence, and health burden for 375 diseases and injuries, including 12 mental disorders. We assess past, current, and emerging trends in the prevalence and burden of mental disorders across sexes and age groups, for 21 regions, 204 countries and territories, and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile, from 1990 to 2023. Methods Mental disorders included in GBD 2023 were anxiety disorders, major depressive disorder, dysthymia, bipolar disorder, schizophrenia, autism spectrum disorders, conduct disorder, attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, anorexia nervosa, bulimia nervosa, idiopathic developmental intellectual disability, and a residual category of other mental disorders. A literature review identified epidemiological data for each disorder. These were analysed via a Bayesian meta-regression to estimate prevalence by disorder, sex, age, location, and year. Disorder-specific prevalence was multiplied by disability weights representing the severity of health loss associated with each disorder to estimate years lived with disability (YLDs). Deaths due to anorexia nervosa were assessed with a Cause of Death Ensemble modelling strategy to estimate deaths by sex, age, location, and year, and then multiplied by the standard life expectancy at age of death to estimate years of life lost (YLLs). YLDs equalled disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for all mental disorders except anorexia nervosa (the only mental disorder considered as an underlying cause of death in GBD), for which DALYs represented the sum of YLDs and YLLs. We presented prevalence, deaths, YLDs, YLLs, and DALYs as counts, age-specific rates per 100 000 population, and age-standardised rates per 100 000 population. Findings We estimated 1·17 billion (95% uncertainty interval 1·06–1·31) prevalent cases of mental disorders globally in 2023, equivalent to an age-standardised prevalence rate of 14 210·7 cases (12 849·5–15 940·1) per 100 000 population. These estimates represented a 95·5% (75·0–121·2) increase in prevalent cases and 24·2% (11·4–41·4) increase in age-standardised prevalence rate between 1990 and 2023. All mental disorders showed increases in prevalent cases between 1990 and 2023, while notable increases were seen in age-standardised prevalence rates for anxiety disorders, major depressive disorder, dysthymia, anorexia nervosa, bulimia nervosa, schizophrenia, and conduct disorder. There were an estimated 171 million (127–228) DALYs due to mental disorders globally across sex and age in 2023, equivalent to an age-standardised DALY rate of 2070·5 DALYs (1519·1–2750·5) per 100 000 population. Mental disorders contributed to 6·1% (4·8–7·6) of all-cause DALYs in 2023, making them the fifth leading cause of global DALYs (up from 12th in 1990). DALYs were almost entirely composed of YLDs. Mental disorders were the leading cause of YLDs in 2023 (up from second in 1990), explaining 17·3% (14·8–20·6) of all-cause global YLDs. Leading causes of mental disorder DALYs were anxiety disorders (ranked 11th among the 304 diseases and injuries at Level 4 of the GBD cause hierarchy), major depressive disorder (15th), and schizophrenia (41st). Globally in 2023, mental disorder age-standardised DALY rates were higher among females (2239·6 [1643·7–3014·1] per 100 000) than among males (1900·2 [1399·8–2510·8] per 100 000), and peaked in the 15–19 years age group (2617·3 [1850·6–3696·8] per 100 000). All locations showed increased mental disorder DALY rates in 2023 compared with 1990, ranging across countries and territories from 1302·4 (952·7–1683·7) per 100 000 in Viet Nam to 3555·8 (2661·9–4715·0) per 100 000 in the Netherlands. Across SDI quintiles, DALY rates ranged from 1853·0 (1352·1–2469·3) per 100 000 for middle SDI to 2184·1 (1606·1–2890·3) per 100 000 for high SDI. Interpretation A significant health burden was imposed by mental disorders in all countries and territories in 2023, irrespective of the health resources available. In some instances, this burden has increased over time and is unevenly distributed across populations. Stronger surveillance systems, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries, are required. Additionally, we need more coordinated and inclusive policies to reduce the burden through early treatment and prevention, tailored to sex and age differences across locations. Responding to the mental health needs of our global population, especially those most vulnerable, is an obligation, not a choice. Funding Gates Foundation, Queensland Health, and University of Queensland.

Open Access: Yes

DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(26)00519-2