Background Breast cancer is a leading cause of mortality and morbidity among females worldwide. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023, we provided an updated comprehensive assessment of the epidemiological trends, disease burden, and risk factors associated with breast cancer globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2023. Methods Breast cancer incidence, mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were estimated by age and sex for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2023. Mortality estimates were generated using GBD Cause of Death Ensemble models, leveraging data from population-based cancer registration systems, vital registration systems, and verbal autopsies. Mortality-to-incidence ratios were calculated to derive both mortality and incidence estimates. Prevalence was calculated by combining incidence and modelled survival estimates. YLLs were established by multiplying age-specific deaths with the GBD standard life expectancy at the age of death. YLDs were estimated by applying disability weights to prevalence estimates. The sum of YLLs and YLDs equalled the number of DALYs. Breast cancer burden attributable to seven risk factors was examined through the comparative risk assessment framework. The GBD forecasting framework was used to forecast breast cancer incidence and mortality from 2024 to 2050. Age-standardised rates were calculated for each metric using the GBD 2023 world standard population. Findings In 2023, there were an estimated 2·30 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·01 to 2·61) breast cancer incident cases, 764 000 deaths (672 000 to 854 000), and 24·1 million (21·3 to 27·5) DALYs among females globally. In the World Bank low-income group, where a low age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR) was estimated (44·2 per 100 000 person-years [31·2 to 58·4]), the age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR) was the highest (24·1 per 100 000 [16·8 to 31·9]). The highest ASIR was in the high-income group (75·7 per 100 000 [67·1 to 84·0]), and the lowest ASMR was in the upper-middle-income group (11·2 per 100 000 [10·2 to 12·3]). Between 1990 and 2023, the ASIR in the low-income group increased by 147·2% (38·1 to 271·7), compared with a 1·2% (–11·5 to 17·2) change in the high-income group. The ASMR decreased in the high-income group, changing by –29·9% (–33·6 to –25·9), but increased by 99·3% (12·5 to 202·9) in the low-income group. The increase in age-standardised DALY rates followed that of ASMRs. Risk factors such as dietary risks, tobacco use, and high fasting plasma glucose contributed to 28·3% (16·6 to 38·9) of breast cancer DALYs in 2023. The risk factors with a decrease in attributable DALYs between 1990 and 2023 were high alcohol use and tobacco. By 2050, the global incident cases of breast cancer among females were forecast to reach 3·56 million (2·29 to 4·83), with 1·37 million (0·841 to 2·02) deaths. Interpretation The stable incidence and declining mortality rates of female breast cancer in high-income nations reflect success in screening, diagnosis, and treatment. In contrast, the concurrent rise in incidence and mortality in other regions signals health system deficits. Without effective interventions, many countries will fall short of the WHO Global Breast Cancer Initiative's ambitious target of achieving an annual reduction of 2·5% in age-standardised mortality rates by 2040. The mounting breast cancer burden, disproportionately affecting some of the world's most vulnerable populations, will further exacerbate health inequalities across the globe without decisive immediate action. Funding Gates Foundation, St Jude Children's Research Hospital.

Background The 2023 iteration of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) estimated prevalence, incidence, and health burden for 375 diseases and injuries, including 12 mental disorders. We assess past, current, and emerging trends in the prevalence and burden of mental disorders across sexes and age groups, for 21 regions, 204 countries and territories, and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile, from 1990 to 2023. Methods Mental disorders included in GBD 2023 were anxiety disorders, major depressive disorder, dysthymia, bipolar disorder, schizophrenia, autism spectrum disorders, conduct disorder, attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, anorexia nervosa, bulimia nervosa, idiopathic developmental intellectual disability, and a residual category of other mental disorders. A literature review identified epidemiological data for each disorder. These were analysed via a Bayesian meta-regression to estimate prevalence by disorder, sex, age, location, and year. Disorder-specific prevalence was multiplied by disability weights representing the severity of health loss associated with each disorder to estimate years lived with disability (YLDs). Deaths due to anorexia nervosa were assessed with a Cause of Death Ensemble modelling strategy to estimate deaths by sex, age, location, and year, and then multiplied by the standard life expectancy at age of death to estimate years of life lost (YLLs). YLDs equalled disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for all mental disorders except anorexia nervosa (the only mental disorder considered as an underlying cause of death in GBD), for which DALYs represented the sum of YLDs and YLLs. We presented prevalence, deaths, YLDs, YLLs, and DALYs as counts, age-specific rates per 100 000 population, and age-standardised rates per 100 000 population. Findings We estimated 1·17 billion (95% uncertainty interval 1·06–1·31) prevalent cases of mental disorders globally in 2023, equivalent to an age-standardised prevalence rate of 14 210·7 cases (12 849·5–15 940·1) per 100 000 population. These estimates represented a 95·5% (75·0–121·2) increase in prevalent cases and 24·2% (11·4–41·4) increase in age-standardised prevalence rate between 1990 and 2023. All mental disorders showed increases in prevalent cases between 1990 and 2023, while notable increases were seen in age-standardised prevalence rates for anxiety disorders, major depressive disorder, dysthymia, anorexia nervosa, bulimia nervosa, schizophrenia, and conduct disorder. There were an estimated 171 million (127–228) DALYs due to mental disorders globally across sex and age in 2023, equivalent to an age-standardised DALY rate of 2070·5 DALYs (1519·1–2750·5) per 100 000 population. Mental disorders contributed to 6·1% (4·8–7·6) of all-cause DALYs in 2023, making them the fifth leading cause of global DALYs (up from 12th in 1990). DALYs were almost entirely composed of YLDs. Mental disorders were the leading cause of YLDs in 2023 (up from second in 1990), explaining 17·3% (14·8–20·6) of all-cause global YLDs. Leading causes of mental disorder DALYs were anxiety disorders (ranked 11th among the 304 diseases and injuries at Level 4 of the GBD cause hierarchy), major depressive disorder (15th), and schizophrenia (41st). Globally in 2023, mental disorder age-standardised DALY rates were higher among females (2239·6 [1643·7–3014·1] per 100 000) than among males (1900·2 [1399·8–2510·8] per 100 000), and peaked in the 15–19 years age group (2617·3 [1850·6–3696·8] per 100 000). All locations showed increased mental disorder DALY rates in 2023 compared with 1990, ranging across countries and territories from 1302·4 (952·7–1683·7) per 100 000 in Viet Nam to 3555·8 (2661·9–4715·0) per 100 000 in the Netherlands. Across SDI quintiles, DALY rates ranged from 1853·0 (1352·1–2469·3) per 100 000 for middle SDI to 2184·1 (1606·1–2890·3) per 100 000 for high SDI. Interpretation A significant health burden was imposed by mental disorders in all countries and territories in 2023, irrespective of the health resources available. In some instances, this burden has increased over time and is unevenly distributed across populations. Stronger surveillance systems, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries, are required. Additionally, we need more coordinated and inclusive policies to reduce the burden through early treatment and prevention, tailored to sex and age differences across locations. Responding to the mental health needs of our global population, especially those most vulnerable, is an obligation, not a choice. Funding Gates Foundation, Queensland Health, and University of Queensland.

Background: Enteric infectious diseases claim more than 1 million lives annually and are among the top ten causes of death in children younger than 5 years. Remarkable global investment has been dedicated to enteric infectious disease prevention and control; however, the shifting global health landscape is testing the continuance of progress. To evaluate the current status and guide future interventions, we present the latest epidemiological estimates of enteric infectious diseases from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023 and assess progress towards the Global Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Pneumonia and Diarrhoea (GAPPD) mortality target of fewer than 20 deaths per 100 000 children younger than 5 years by 2025. Methods: We quantified the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of enteric infectious diseases by age, sex, and year across 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2023. In GBD 2023, the following were considered under the category of enteric infectious diseases: diarrhoeal diseases, enteric fever (typhoid and paratyphoid), invasive non-typhoidal Salmonella spp (iNTS) infections, and other intestinal infectious diseases. We also examined 15 aetiologies contributing to diarrhoeal diseases. Incidence and prevalence were estimated with DisMod-MR (version 2.1), a Bayesian meta-regression tool, drawing on data from systematic reviews, population-based surveys, claims data, and hospital sources. Cause-specific mortality was modelled with Cause of Death Ensemble Modelling based on data from sources including vital registration, mortality surveillance, verbal autopsy, and minimally invasive tissue sampling. Years of life lost and years lived with disability were computed and combined to derive DALYs. For aetiology-specific estimation, population-attributable fractions (PAFs) for 15 pathogens were derived with a counterfactual framework. Point estimates and 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated from 250 draws from the posterior distribution. Findings: In 2023, enteric infectious diseases resulted in an estimated 1·27 million (95% UI 0·963–1·68) deaths globally, declining from 3·69 million (3·04–4·56) in 1990. The global age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR) decreased from 74·1 (62·0–92·9) per 100 000 population to 16·4 (12·6–21·3) per 100 000 population during the same period. Diarrhoeal diseases accounted for most deaths in 2023 (1·11 million [0·811–1·54]), followed by enteric fever and iNTS. South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa remained the most affected regions in 2023, with 599 000 (441 000–882 000) and 501 000 (373 000–648 000) deaths due to enteric infectious diseases, respectively, predominantly from diarrhoeal disease. Rotavirus was the leading cause of all-age diarrhoeal disease deaths (PAF 16·3% [12·0–21·5]), followed by norovirus (10·2% [2·4–17·0]) and Shigella spp (9·3% [5·4–15·2]). Among children younger than 5 years, PAFs of deaths due to diarrhoeal diseases were 40·2% (32·5–48·5) for rotavirus, 24·0% (15·1–36·7) for Shigella spp, and 23·4% (13·7–34·3) for adenovirus. Across 204 countries and territories, 141 met the GAPPD mortality target in 2023. The driving aetiologies among countries that did not meet the target in 2023 varied slightly by GBD super-region, but the highest or second-highest number of deaths in children younger than 5 years were consistently attributed to rotavirus. Astrovirus and sapovirus, newly included in GBD 2023, were responsible for 24 600 (6290–49 000) and 18 800 (4650–44 400) deaths, respectively, in 2023, mainly in children younger than 5 years. Interpretation: Our findings show that mortality and ASMRs of enteric infectious diseases declined substantially between 1990 and 2023. This decline is consistent with the expansion of public health measures and broader socioeconomic development. However, the burden in 2023 remains considerably high, with the highest mortality concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia. Considering that more than a quarter of all countries had yet to meet the GAPPD mortality target in 2023, sustained efforts are needed to address the persistent burden in affected countries and to adapt to the changing global health landscape. Funding: Gates Foundation.

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading global cause of death from a single infectious agent. Recent reductions in global health funding have threatened TB control, making comprehensive assessment of TB, HIV-related TB, and drug-resistant TB burdens before these disruptions essential for shaping effective responses. The WHO End TB Strategy sets targets of a 95% reduction in TB deaths and a 90% reduction in TB incidence between 2015 and 2035. Using results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023, this study aims to assess the burden of TB and multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB) across 204 countries and territories, and to evaluate progress towards the WHO End TB incidence and mortality targets. Methods: We quantified TB mortality using the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling platform with global vital registration, surveillance, verbal autopsy, and minimally invasive tissue sampling data. For TB morbidity estimation, we simultaneously modelled incidence, prevalence, and mortality by age and sex using DisMod-MR 2.1. A population attributable fraction (PAF) approach was applied to stratify morbidity and mortality estimates by HIV and drug-resistance status. We also calculated disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) as the sum of years of life lost and years lived with disability. For the risk factor analysis, a comparative risk assessment framework was used and PAFs were derived for alcohol use, smoking, and high fasting plasma glucose to determine the proportion of TB burden associated with these risk factors. Findings: In 2023, there were an estimated 9·11 million (95% uncertainty interval 8·04–10·3) incident cases of all-form TB, 1·22 million (0·98–1·49) deaths, and 54·6 million (43·8–65·5) DALYs globally. HIV-related TB comprised 781 000 (690 000–879 000) incident cases and 210 000 (142 000–279 000) deaths, contributing 11·0 million (7·56–14·3) DALYs. MDR-TB accounted for 466 000 (198 000–1 080 000) incident cases, 102 000 (31 700–238 000) deaths, and 3·96 million (1·31–9·01) DALYs. From 2015 to 2023, global all-form TB incidence rates declined by 19·2% (17·8–20·5) and deaths declined by 22·6% (4·7–35·7); declines were larger for drug-susceptible TB than for MDR-TB. Sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia had the highest mortality burdens in 2023; reductions in all-form TB incidence and mortality were uneven between 2000 and 2023, with limited progress in both measures in Latin America and the Caribbean. Removing smoking, alcohol use, and high fasting plasma glucose would reduce global TB deaths to 768 000 (592 000–970 000) and DALYs to 34·9 million (27·8–43·8) in 2023; MDR-TB deaths would decrease to 77 200 (23 400–183 000) and DALYs to 3·12 million (1·03–7·29). Interpretation: Global progress towards WHO End TB targets is disparate and fragile. Although many regions achieved meaningful gains, others have stagnated in recent years. The complexity of TB prevention is amplified by divergent MDR-TB trends, the persistent burden of HIV, and growing exposure to modifiable risk factors. Recent volatility in global health financing threatens to further destabilise this vulnerable epidemiological landscape; concerted action is urgently needed to temper disruptions and preserve progress. Funding: Gates Foundation.