Damian F. Santomauro

56912450700

Publications - 2

Burden of 375 diseases and injuries, risk-attributable burden of 88 risk factors, and healthy life expectancy in 204 countries and territories, including 660 subnational locations, 1990–2023: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023

Jeza Muhamad Abdul Aziz Shehab Uddin Al Abid Niveen M.E. Abu-Rmeileh Rana Kamal Abu Farha Cristiana Abbafati Barkhad Aden Abdeeq Mohammed Altigani Abdalla Nadin M.I. Abdel Razeq Ahmed Abdelrahman Abdelgalil Wael M. Abdel-Rahman Reda Abdel-Hameed Aminu Kende Abubakar Michael Abdelmasseh Kamoru Ademola Adedokun Nurudeen A. Adegoke Isaac Ayodeji Adesina Ashraf Nabiel Abdalla Raghu Ram Achar Habtamu Abebe Getahun Eman Abu-Gharbieh Lisa C. Adams Armita Abedi Usha Adiga Mitra Abbasifard Mohammad Amin Aalipour A. Bhoomadevi Hazim S. Ababneh Ukachukwu O. Abaraogu Dariush Abtahi Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader Ripon Kumar Adhikary Mohd Adnan Simon I. Hay Kanyin Liane Ong Damian F. Santomauro Biruk Beletew Abate Hasan Aalruz Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari Sepideh Abdi Roberto Ariel Abeldaño Zuñiga Mohammad Abdollahi E. S. Abhilash Alemwork Abie Hana J. Abukhadijah Nasir Abbas Ilana N. Ackerman Mesafint Molla Adane Zenaw Debasu Addisu Rufus Adesoji Adedoyin Emad M. Abdallah Samar Abd Elhafeez Olorunsola Israel Adeyomoye Meriem Abdoun Salahdein Aburuz Mahmoud Abdelnabi Lucas Guimarães Abreu Apurba Acharya Lawan Hassan Adamu Oluwafemi Atanda Adeagbo Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani Sherief Abd-Elsalam Adam Abdullahi Deldar Morad Abdulah Toufik Abdul-Rahman Asrat Agalu Abejew Fuad Hamdi A. Abuadas Kulmira Abdykerimova Aidin Abedi Olugbenga Olusola Abiodun Shady Abohashem Nagah M. Abourashed Mohamed Abouzid Dmitry Abramov Roberto Ariel Abeldaño Zuñiga Juan Manuel Acuna Anirudh Balakrishna Acharya Ousman Adal Hasan Aalruz Arman Abdous Auwal Abdullahi Bilyaminu Abubakar Isaac Yeboah Addo Sawsan Abuhammad David Adedia Syed Hani Abidi Olumide Abiodun Hassan Abolhassani Richard Gyan Aboagye Ulric Sena Abonie Habeeb Omoponle Adewuyi Oyelola A. Adegboye Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji Ahmad Y. Abuhelwa Dina Abushanab Tajudeen Adesanmi Adebisi Oluwatobi E. Adegbile Olumide Thomas Adeleke Miracle Ayomikun Adesina Temitayo Esther Adeyeoluwa Leticia Akua Adzigbli Nasir Abbas Prince Owusu Adoma Kishor Adhikari Salahdein Aburuz Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader

Publication Name: Lancet

Publication Date: 2025-10-18

Volume: 406

Issue: 10513

Page Range: 1873-1922

Description:

Background For more than three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has provided a framework to quantify health loss due to diseases, injuries, and associated risk factors. This paper presents GBD 2023 findings on disease and injury burden and risk-attributable health loss, offering a global audit of the state of world health to inform public health priorities. This work captures the evolving landscape of health metrics across age groups, sexes, and locations, while reflecting on the remaining post-COVID-19 challenges to achieving our collective global health ambitions. Methods The GBD 2023 combined analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 375 diseases and injuries, and risk-attributable burden associated with 88 modifiable risk factors. Of the more than 310 000 total data sources used for all GBD 2023 (about 30% of which were new to this estimation round), more than 120 000 sources were used for estimation of disease and injury burden and 59 000 for risk factor estimation, and included vital registration systems, surveys, disease registries, and published scientific literature. Data were analysed using previously established modelling approaches, such as disease modelling meta-regression version 2.1 (DisMod-MR 2.1) and comparative risk assessment methods. Diseases and injuries were categorised into four levels on the basis of the established GBD cause hierarchy, as were risk factors using the GBD risk hierarchy. Estimates stratified by age, sex, location, and year from 1990 to 2023 were focused on disease-specific time trends over the 2010–23 period and presented as counts (to three significant figures) and age-standardised rates per 100 000 person-years (to one decimal place). For each measure, 95% uncertainty intervals [UIs] were calculated with the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile ordered values from a 250-draw distribution. Findings Total numbers of global DALYs grew 6·1% (95% UI 4·0–8·1), from 2·64 billion (2·46–2·86) in 2010 to 2·80 billion (2·57–3·08) in 2023, but age-standardised DALY rates, which account for population growth and ageing, decreased by 12·6% (11·0–14·1), revealing large long-term health improvements. Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) contributed 1·45 billion (1·31–1·61) global DALYs in 2010, increasing to 1·80 billion (1·63–2·03) in 2023, alongside a concurrent 4·1% (1·9–6·3) reduction in age-standardised rates. Based on DALY counts, the leading level 3 NCDs in 2023 were ischaemic heart disease (193 million [176–209] DALYs), stroke (157 million [141–172]), and diabetes (90·2 million [75·2–107]), with the largest increases in age-standardised rates since 2010 occurring for anxiety disorders (62·8% [34·0–107·5]), depressive disorders (26·3% [11·6–42·9]), and diabetes (14·9% [7·5–25·6]). Remarkable health gains were made for communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases, with DALYs falling from 874 million (837–917) in 2010 to 681 million (642–736) in 2023, and a 25·8% (22·6–28·7) reduction in age-standardised DALY rates. During the COVID-19 pandemic, DALYs due to CMNN diseases rose but returned to pre-pandemic levels by 2023. From 2010 to 2023, decreases in age-standardised rates for CMNN diseases were led by rate decreases of 49·1% (32·7–61·0) for diarrhoeal diseases, 42·9% (38·0–48·0) for HIV/AIDS, and 42·2% (23·6–56·6) for tuberculosis. Neonatal disorders and lower respiratory infections remained the leading level 3 CMNN causes globally in 2023, although both showed notable rate decreases from 2010, declining by 16·5% (10·6–22·0) and 24·8% (7·4–36·7), respectively. Injury-related age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 15·6% (10·7–19·8) over the same period. Differences in burden due to NCDs, CMNN diseases, and injuries persisted across age, sex, time, and location. Based on our risk analysis, nearly 50% (1·27 billion [1·18–1·38]) of the roughly 2·80 billion total global DALYs in 2023 were attributable to the 88 risk factors analysed in GBD. Globally, the five level 3 risk factors contributing the highest proportion of risk-attributable DALYs were high systolic blood pressure (SBP), particulate matter pollution, high fasting plasma glucose (FPG), smoking, and low birthweight and short gestation—with high SBP accounting for 8·4% (6·9–10·0) of total DALYs. Of the three overarching level 1 GBD risk factor categories—behavioural, metabolic, and environmental and occupational—risk-attributable DALYs rose between 2010 and 2023 only for metabolic risks, increasing by 30·7% (24·8–37·3); however, age-standardised DALY rates attributable to metabolic risks decreased by 6·7% (2·0–11·0) over the same period. For all but three of the 25 leading level 3 risk factors, age-standardised rates dropped between 2010 and 2023—eg, declining by 54·4% (38·7–65·3) for unsafe sanitation, 50·5% (33·3–63·1) for unsafe water source, and 45·2% (25·6–72·0) for no access to handwashing facility, and by 44·9% (37·3–53·5) for child growth failure. The three leading level 3 risk factors for which age-standardised attributable DALY rates rose were high BMI (10·5% [0·1 to 20·9]), drug use (8·4% [2·6 to 15·3]), and high FPG (6·2% [–2·7 to 15·6]; non-significant). Interpretation Our findings underscore the complex and dynamic nature of global health challenges. Since 2010, there have been large decreases in burden due to CMNN diseases and many environmental and behavioural risk factors, juxtaposed with sizeable increases in DALYs attributable to metabolic risk factors and NCDs in growing and ageing populations. This long-observed consequence of the global epidemiological transition was only temporarily interrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic. The substantially decreasing CMNN disease burden, despite the 2008 global financial crisis and pandemic-related disruptions, is one of the greatest collective public health successes known. However, these achievements are at risk of being reversed due to major cuts to development assistance for health globally, the effects of which will hit low-income countries with high burden the hardest. Without sustained investment in evidence-based interventions and policies, progress could stall or reverse, leading to widespread human costs and geopolitical instability. Moreover, the rising NCD burden necessitates intensified efforts to mitigate exposure to leading risk factors—eg, air pollution, smoking, and metabolic risks, such as high SBP, BMI, and FPG—including policies that promote food security, healthier diets, physical activity, and equitable and expanded access to potential treatments, such as GLP-1 receptor agonists. Decisive, coordinated action is needed to address long-standing yet growing health challenges, including depressive and anxiety disorders. Yet this can be only part of the solution. Our response to the NCD syndemic—the complex interaction of multiple health risks, social determinants, and systemic challenges—will define the future landscape of global health. To ensure human wellbeing, economic stability, and social equity, global action to sustain and advance health gains must prioritise reducing disparities by addressing socioeconomic and demographic determinants, ensuring equitable health-care access, tackling malnutrition, strengthening health systems, and improving vaccination coverage. We live in times of great opportunity. Funding Gates Foundation and Bloomberg Philanthropies.

Open Access: Yes

DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(25)01637-X

Updated trends in the global prevalence and burden of mental disorders, 1990–2023: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023

Usha Adiga Thilini Chanchala Agampodi Rasmieh Mustafa Al-Amer Marjan Ajami Mohd Adnan Omar Al Omari Fadwa Naji Alhalaiqa Salahdein Aburuz Rufus Adesoji Adedoyin Khurshid Ahmad Rana Kamal Abu Farha Isaac Yeboah Addo Ahmad Y. Abuhelwa Wole Akosile Irfan Ali Nader Al-Dewik Obed Adonteng-Kissi Damian F. Santomauro Lawan Hassan Adamu César Agostinis Sobrinho Nadin M.I. Abdel Razeq Williams Agyemang-Duah Sarah Wulf Hanson Ana M. Mantilla Herrera Shady Abohashem Fahmi Y. Al-Ashwal Tariq A. Alalwan Ayman Ahmed Prince Agwu Fahad D. Algahtani Deldar Morad Abdulah Negar Sadat Ahmadi Makinde Adebayo Adeniyi John J. McGrath Holly E. Erskine Mohammed Albashtawy Khurshid Alam Meshack Achore Olumide Thomas Adeleke Babatope Oluwadamilare Adebiyi Olifan Zewdie Abil Sawsan Abuhammad Abdulelah Mastour Aldhahir David Adedia Rafat Ali Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani Miracle Ayomikun Adesina Sarah Wulf Hanson Hedayat Abbastabar Tauseef Ahmad Oli Ahmed Hasan Aalruz James G. Scott Sajjad Ahmad Zenaw Debasu Addisu Hailey Hagins Jamileh Shadid Giuseppina Affinito Richard Gyan Aboagye Mesfin Abebe Navidha Aggarwal Ali Abdolizadeh David Adzrago Ali M. Alfalki Kamran Ali Kasuni H.M. Akalanka Mohammed Usman Ali Hana J. Abukhadijah Abdullah Alarifi Abdullahi Tunde Aborode Khabir Ahmad Mohammad T. Abuawwad Amani Alansari Habeeb Abiodun Afolabi Ashley E. Akrami Saheed Ayodeji Adekola Moaz Elsayed Abouelmagd Aminu Kende Abubakar Meqdad Saleh Ahmed Paul Anthony Miller Anh Vo Habtamu Abebe Getahun Ashraf Alhumaidi Nuhu Lawan Adamu Nesredin Ahmed Abisola Esther Abdulmalik Mohammad Daud Ali Tajudeen Adesanmi Adebisi Mohammad Ahmmad Mahmoud Al Zoubi Ahmed Abdelrahman Abdelgalil Aram Mahmood Ahmed Hasan Aalruz Syed Anees Ahmed Adamu Adamu Ahmad Suhaib Ahmad Abisola Esther Abdulmalik Roberto Ariel Abeldaño Zuñiga Meklit Girma Abebe Dhikroh Oriyomi Adekola Fahmi Y. Al-Ashwal Darius Jake Roy Salah Al Awaidy Muhammad Nadeem Akhtar Ali Ahmed

Publication Name: Lancet

Publication Date: 2026-05-23

Volume: 407

Issue: 10543

Page Range: 2040-2064

Description:

Background The 2023 iteration of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) estimated prevalence, incidence, and health burden for 375 diseases and injuries, including 12 mental disorders. We assess past, current, and emerging trends in the prevalence and burden of mental disorders across sexes and age groups, for 21 regions, 204 countries and territories, and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile, from 1990 to 2023. Methods Mental disorders included in GBD 2023 were anxiety disorders, major depressive disorder, dysthymia, bipolar disorder, schizophrenia, autism spectrum disorders, conduct disorder, attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, anorexia nervosa, bulimia nervosa, idiopathic developmental intellectual disability, and a residual category of other mental disorders. A literature review identified epidemiological data for each disorder. These were analysed via a Bayesian meta-regression to estimate prevalence by disorder, sex, age, location, and year. Disorder-specific prevalence was multiplied by disability weights representing the severity of health loss associated with each disorder to estimate years lived with disability (YLDs). Deaths due to anorexia nervosa were assessed with a Cause of Death Ensemble modelling strategy to estimate deaths by sex, age, location, and year, and then multiplied by the standard life expectancy at age of death to estimate years of life lost (YLLs). YLDs equalled disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for all mental disorders except anorexia nervosa (the only mental disorder considered as an underlying cause of death in GBD), for which DALYs represented the sum of YLDs and YLLs. We presented prevalence, deaths, YLDs, YLLs, and DALYs as counts, age-specific rates per 100 000 population, and age-standardised rates per 100 000 population. Findings We estimated 1·17 billion (95% uncertainty interval 1·06–1·31) prevalent cases of mental disorders globally in 2023, equivalent to an age-standardised prevalence rate of 14 210·7 cases (12 849·5–15 940·1) per 100 000 population. These estimates represented a 95·5% (75·0–121·2) increase in prevalent cases and 24·2% (11·4–41·4) increase in age-standardised prevalence rate between 1990 and 2023. All mental disorders showed increases in prevalent cases between 1990 and 2023, while notable increases were seen in age-standardised prevalence rates for anxiety disorders, major depressive disorder, dysthymia, anorexia nervosa, bulimia nervosa, schizophrenia, and conduct disorder. There were an estimated 171 million (127–228) DALYs due to mental disorders globally across sex and age in 2023, equivalent to an age-standardised DALY rate of 2070·5 DALYs (1519·1–2750·5) per 100 000 population. Mental disorders contributed to 6·1% (4·8–7·6) of all-cause DALYs in 2023, making them the fifth leading cause of global DALYs (up from 12th in 1990). DALYs were almost entirely composed of YLDs. Mental disorders were the leading cause of YLDs in 2023 (up from second in 1990), explaining 17·3% (14·8–20·6) of all-cause global YLDs. Leading causes of mental disorder DALYs were anxiety disorders (ranked 11th among the 304 diseases and injuries at Level 4 of the GBD cause hierarchy), major depressive disorder (15th), and schizophrenia (41st). Globally in 2023, mental disorder age-standardised DALY rates were higher among females (2239·6 [1643·7–3014·1] per 100 000) than among males (1900·2 [1399·8–2510·8] per 100 000), and peaked in the 15–19 years age group (2617·3 [1850·6–3696·8] per 100 000). All locations showed increased mental disorder DALY rates in 2023 compared with 1990, ranging across countries and territories from 1302·4 (952·7–1683·7) per 100 000 in Viet Nam to 3555·8 (2661·9–4715·0) per 100 000 in the Netherlands. Across SDI quintiles, DALY rates ranged from 1853·0 (1352·1–2469·3) per 100 000 for middle SDI to 2184·1 (1606·1–2890·3) per 100 000 for high SDI. Interpretation A significant health burden was imposed by mental disorders in all countries and territories in 2023, irrespective of the health resources available. In some instances, this burden has increased over time and is unevenly distributed across populations. Stronger surveillance systems, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries, are required. Additionally, we need more coordinated and inclusive policies to reduce the burden through early treatment and prevention, tailored to sex and age differences across locations. Responding to the mental health needs of our global population, especially those most vulnerable, is an obligation, not a choice. Funding Gates Foundation, Queensland Health, and University of Queensland.

Open Access: Yes

DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(26)00519-2