Makinde Adebayo Adeniyi

57201493506

Publications - 4

Disease burden attributable to intimate partner violence against females and sexual violence against children in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2023: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023

Amani Alansari Rana Kamal Abu Farha Haroon Ahmed Kamoru Ademola Adedokun Nurudeen A. Adegoke Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika Afolabi Lisa C. Adams Muayyad M. Ahmad Mesfin Abebe Armita Abedi Hubert Amu Anayochukwu Edward Anyasodor Aqeel Ahmad Mohmmad Minwer Alnaeem Williams Agyemang-Duah Alemwork Abie Muhammad Sohail Afzal Danish Ahmad Rotimi Felix Afolabi Saira Afzal Seyyed Shamsadin Athari Samar Abd Elhafeez Mehrunnisha Sharif Ahmed Ayman Ahmed Meriem Abdoun Zufishan Alam Lucas Guimarães Abreu Bright Opoku Ahinkorah Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani Haroon Ahmed Roberto Ariel Abeldaño Zuñiga Asma Ahmed Meshack Achore Hasan Aalruz Bilyaminu Abubakar Sawsan Abuhammad Olumide Abiodun Richard Gyan Aboagye Habeeb Omoponle Adewuyi Mohammad Mahdi Bastan M. D.Abu Bashar Shahid Bashir Oluwatobi E. Adegbile Olumide Thomas Adeleke Miracle Ayomikun Adesina Leticia Akua Adzigbli Hasan Aalruz Aleksandr Y. Aravkin Roberto Ariel Abeldaño Zuñiga Oli Ahmed Elizabeth Oluwatoyin Akin-Odanye Wole Akosile Idorenyin Ubon Akpabio Rasmieh Mustafa Al-Amer Turki M. Alanzi Shereen M. Aleidi Melaku Birhanu Alemu Fadwa Naji Alhalaiqa Hamid Alinejad Rokny Md Al-Mamun Joseph Uy Almazan Mohmmad Minwer Alnaeem Siddig Ibrahim Abdelwahab Babatope Oluwadamilare Adebiyi Makinde Adebayo Adeniyi Mohammad Sharif Ibrahim Alyahya Tarek Tawfik Amin Saeed Amini Sohrab Amiri Jimoh Amzat Asma Ahmed Montaha Al-Iede Intima Alrimawi Saeid Anvari David B. Anderson Luisa S. Flor Cory N. Spencer Jack Cagney Gabriela Fernanda Gil Yonas Abebe Boluwatife Stephen Anuoluwa Jorge Arias de la Torre Benedetta Armocida Alejandra Arrieta Deepavalli Arumuganainar Wesam Taher Almagharbeh Bilal Aslam Prince Atorkey Sachin R. Atre Abadi Hailay Atsbaha Madhu Sudhan Atteraya Ahmed Y. Azzam B. Sheeba Khlood K. Baghlaf Najim Z. Alshahrani Jose Balmori-de-la-Miyar Soham Bandyopadhyay Julie Alaere Atta Asma Ahmed Atif Amin Baig Manish Barik Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo Azadeh Bashiri Tahira Ashraf Yuni Asri Wondu Feyisa Balcha

Publication Name: Lancet

Publication Date: 2026-01-03

Volume: 407

Issue: 10523

Page Range: 31-52

Description:

Background Violence against women and against children are human rights violations with lasting harms to survivors and societies at large. Intimate partner violence (IPV) and sexual violence against children (SVAC) are two major forms of such abuse. Despite their wide-reaching effects on individual and community health, these risk factors have not been adequately prioritised as key drivers of global health burden. Comprehensive x§and reliable estimates of the comparative health burden of IPV and SVAC are urgently needed to inform investments in prevention and support for survivors at both national and global levels. Methods We estimated the prevalence and attributable burden of IPV among females and SVAC among males and females for 204 countries and territories, by age and sex, from 1990 to 2023, as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2023. We searched several global databases for data on self-reported exposure to IPV and SVAC and undertook a systematic review to identify the health outcomes associated with each of these risk factors. We modelled IPV and SVAC prevalence using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, applying data adjustments to account for measurement heterogeneity. We employed burden-of-proof methodology to estimate relative risks for outcomes associated with IPV and SVAC. These estimates informed the calculation of population attributable fractions, which were then used to quantify disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributable to each risk factor. Findings Globally, in 2023, we estimated that 608 million (95% uncertainty interval 518–724) females aged 15 years and older had ever been exposed to IPV, and 1·01 billion (0·764–1·48) individuals aged 15 years and older had experienced sexual violence during childhood. 18·5 million (8·74–30·0) DALYs were attributed to IPV among females and 32·2 million (16·4–52·5) DALYs were attributed to SVAC among males and females in 2023. IPV and SVAC were among the top contributors to the global disease burden in 2023, particularly among females aged 15–49 years, ranking as the fourth and fifth leading risk factors, respectively, for DALYs in this group. Among the eight health outcomes found to be associated with IPV, anxiety disorders and major depressive disorder were the leading causes of IPV-attributed DALYs, accounting for 5·43 million (–1·25 to 14·6) and 3·96 million (1·71 to 6·92) DALYs in 2023, respectively. SVAC was associated with 14 health outcomes, including mental health disorder, substance use disorder, and chronic and infectious disease outcomes. Self-harm and schizophrenia were the leading causes of SVAC-attributed burden, with SVAC accounting for 6·71 million (2·00 to 12·7) DALYs due to self-harm and 4·15 million (–1·92 to 13·1) DALYs due to schizophrenia in 2023. Interpretation IPV and SVAC are substantial contributors to global health burden, and their health consequences span a variety of individual health outcomes. Importantly, mental health disorders account for the greatest share of disease burden among survivors. Investing in prevention of these avoidable risk factors has the potential to avert millions of DALYs and considerable premature mortality each year. Our findings represent strong evidence for global and national leaders to elevate IPV and SVAC among public health priorities. Sustained investments are needed to prevent IPV and SVAC and to implement interventions focused on supporting the complex social and health needs of survivors. Funding Gates Foundation.

Open Access: Yes

DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(25)02503-6

Updated trends in the global prevalence and burden of mental disorders, 1990–2023: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023

Usha Adiga Thilini Chanchala Agampodi Rasmieh Mustafa Al-Amer Marjan Ajami Mohd Adnan Omar Al Omari Fadwa Naji Alhalaiqa Salahdein Aburuz Rufus Adesoji Adedoyin Khurshid Ahmad Rana Kamal Abu Farha Isaac Yeboah Addo Ahmad Y. Abuhelwa Wole Akosile Irfan Ali Nader Al-Dewik Obed Adonteng-Kissi Damian F. Santomauro Lawan Hassan Adamu César Agostinis Sobrinho Nadin M.I. Abdel Razeq Williams Agyemang-Duah Sarah Wulf Hanson Ana M. Mantilla Herrera Shady Abohashem Fahmi Y. Al-Ashwal Tariq A. Alalwan Ayman Ahmed Prince Agwu Fahad D. Algahtani Deldar Morad Abdulah Negar Sadat Ahmadi Makinde Adebayo Adeniyi John J. McGrath Holly E. Erskine Mohammed Albashtawy Khurshid Alam Meshack Achore Olumide Thomas Adeleke Babatope Oluwadamilare Adebiyi Olifan Zewdie Abil Sawsan Abuhammad Abdulelah Mastour Aldhahir David Adedia Rafat Ali Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani Miracle Ayomikun Adesina Sarah Wulf Hanson Hedayat Abbastabar Tauseef Ahmad Oli Ahmed Hasan Aalruz James G. Scott Sajjad Ahmad Zenaw Debasu Addisu Hailey Hagins Jamileh Shadid Giuseppina Affinito Richard Gyan Aboagye Mesfin Abebe Navidha Aggarwal Ali Abdolizadeh David Adzrago Ali M. Alfalki Kamran Ali Kasuni H.M. Akalanka Mohammed Usman Ali Hana J. Abukhadijah Abdullah Alarifi Abdullahi Tunde Aborode Khabir Ahmad Mohammad T. Abuawwad Amani Alansari Habeeb Abiodun Afolabi Ashley E. Akrami Saheed Ayodeji Adekola Moaz Elsayed Abouelmagd Aminu Kende Abubakar Meqdad Saleh Ahmed Paul Anthony Miller Anh Vo Habtamu Abebe Getahun Ashraf Alhumaidi Nuhu Lawan Adamu Nesredin Ahmed Abisola Esther Abdulmalik Mohammad Daud Ali Tajudeen Adesanmi Adebisi Mohammad Ahmmad Mahmoud Al Zoubi Ahmed Abdelrahman Abdelgalil Aram Mahmood Ahmed Hasan Aalruz Syed Anees Ahmed Adamu Adamu Ahmad Suhaib Ahmad Abisola Esther Abdulmalik Roberto Ariel Abeldaño Zuñiga Meklit Girma Abebe Dhikroh Oriyomi Adekola Fahmi Y. Al-Ashwal Darius Jake Roy Salah Al Awaidy Muhammad Nadeem Akhtar Ali Ahmed

Publication Name: Lancet

Publication Date: 2026-05-23

Volume: 407

Issue: 10543

Page Range: 2040-2064

Description:

Background The 2023 iteration of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) estimated prevalence, incidence, and health burden for 375 diseases and injuries, including 12 mental disorders. We assess past, current, and emerging trends in the prevalence and burden of mental disorders across sexes and age groups, for 21 regions, 204 countries and territories, and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile, from 1990 to 2023. Methods Mental disorders included in GBD 2023 were anxiety disorders, major depressive disorder, dysthymia, bipolar disorder, schizophrenia, autism spectrum disorders, conduct disorder, attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, anorexia nervosa, bulimia nervosa, idiopathic developmental intellectual disability, and a residual category of other mental disorders. A literature review identified epidemiological data for each disorder. These were analysed via a Bayesian meta-regression to estimate prevalence by disorder, sex, age, location, and year. Disorder-specific prevalence was multiplied by disability weights representing the severity of health loss associated with each disorder to estimate years lived with disability (YLDs). Deaths due to anorexia nervosa were assessed with a Cause of Death Ensemble modelling strategy to estimate deaths by sex, age, location, and year, and then multiplied by the standard life expectancy at age of death to estimate years of life lost (YLLs). YLDs equalled disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for all mental disorders except anorexia nervosa (the only mental disorder considered as an underlying cause of death in GBD), for which DALYs represented the sum of YLDs and YLLs. We presented prevalence, deaths, YLDs, YLLs, and DALYs as counts, age-specific rates per 100 000 population, and age-standardised rates per 100 000 population. Findings We estimated 1·17 billion (95% uncertainty interval 1·06–1·31) prevalent cases of mental disorders globally in 2023, equivalent to an age-standardised prevalence rate of 14 210·7 cases (12 849·5–15 940·1) per 100 000 population. These estimates represented a 95·5% (75·0–121·2) increase in prevalent cases and 24·2% (11·4–41·4) increase in age-standardised prevalence rate between 1990 and 2023. All mental disorders showed increases in prevalent cases between 1990 and 2023, while notable increases were seen in age-standardised prevalence rates for anxiety disorders, major depressive disorder, dysthymia, anorexia nervosa, bulimia nervosa, schizophrenia, and conduct disorder. There were an estimated 171 million (127–228) DALYs due to mental disorders globally across sex and age in 2023, equivalent to an age-standardised DALY rate of 2070·5 DALYs (1519·1–2750·5) per 100 000 population. Mental disorders contributed to 6·1% (4·8–7·6) of all-cause DALYs in 2023, making them the fifth leading cause of global DALYs (up from 12th in 1990). DALYs were almost entirely composed of YLDs. Mental disorders were the leading cause of YLDs in 2023 (up from second in 1990), explaining 17·3% (14·8–20·6) of all-cause global YLDs. Leading causes of mental disorder DALYs were anxiety disorders (ranked 11th among the 304 diseases and injuries at Level 4 of the GBD cause hierarchy), major depressive disorder (15th), and schizophrenia (41st). Globally in 2023, mental disorder age-standardised DALY rates were higher among females (2239·6 [1643·7–3014·1] per 100 000) than among males (1900·2 [1399·8–2510·8] per 100 000), and peaked in the 15–19 years age group (2617·3 [1850·6–3696·8] per 100 000). All locations showed increased mental disorder DALY rates in 2023 compared with 1990, ranging across countries and territories from 1302·4 (952·7–1683·7) per 100 000 in Viet Nam to 3555·8 (2661·9–4715·0) per 100 000 in the Netherlands. Across SDI quintiles, DALY rates ranged from 1853·0 (1352·1–2469·3) per 100 000 for middle SDI to 2184·1 (1606·1–2890·3) per 100 000 for high SDI. Interpretation A significant health burden was imposed by mental disorders in all countries and territories in 2023, irrespective of the health resources available. In some instances, this burden has increased over time and is unevenly distributed across populations. Stronger surveillance systems, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries, are required. Additionally, we need more coordinated and inclusive policies to reduce the burden through early treatment and prevention, tailored to sex and age differences across locations. Responding to the mental health needs of our global population, especially those most vulnerable, is an obligation, not a choice. Funding Gates Foundation, Queensland Health, and University of Queensland.

Open Access: Yes

DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(26)00519-2

Global burden of enteric infectious diseases, diarrhoeal diseases, and corresponding aetiologies, 1990–2023: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023

Usha Adiga Emad M. Abdallah Dariush Abtahi Eman Abu-Gharbieh Amr Selim Abu Lila Siddig Ibrahim Abdelwahab Rashad Abdul-Ghani Anirudh Balakrishna Acharya Mohd Adnan Lorainne Tudor Car Victor Adekanmbi Reda Abdel-Hameed Asrat Agalu Abejew Ayo Stephen Adebowale Samar Abd Elhafeez Jeza Muhamad Abdul Aziz Ripon Kumar Adhikary Muhammad Sohail Afzal Nermeen Abu-Elala Auwal Abdullahi Rana Kamal Abu Farha Isaac Yeboah Addo Ahmad Y. Abuhelwa Victor Ibukun Agbajelola Zeleke Dutamo Agde Obed Adonteng-Kissi Piyush Agrawal Swetha Acharya Charles Oluwaseun Adetunji Lisa C. Adams Fuad Hamdi A. Abuadas Madineh Abbasi Omar Ahmed Abdelwahab Nurudeen A. Adegoke Jiawei He Makinde Adebayo Adeniyi Austin Carter Abdu A. Adamu Rezheen Fatah Abdulrahman Olumide Thomas Adeleke Feleke Doyore Agide Babatope Oluwadamilare Adebiyi Olifan Zewdie Abil Samuel B. Albertson Dina Abushanab Sawsan Abuhammad David Adedia Kamoru Ademola Adedokun Percival Delali Delali Agordoh A. Bhoomadevi Catherine Bisignano Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani Oluwawemimo Oluseun Adebowale Ebenezer Afrifa-Yamoah Hasan Aalruz Avina Vongpradith Samuel M. Ostroff Richard Gyan Aboagye Molalign Aligaz Aligaz Adisu Melese Shenkut Abebe Navidha Aggarwal Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader Arman Abdous Nagah M. Abourashed Toufik Abdul-Rahman Belete Muluadam Admassie Regina Mae Villanueva Dominguez Hana J. Abukhadijah Abdullahi Tunde Aborode Abdulrakib Abdulrahim Abdelmuhsin Abdelgadir Hassan Abolhassani Adedeji Adenusi Saheed Ayodeji Adekola Yirgalem Abere Shairyar Afzal Oluwatobi E. Adegbile None Abdullah Sadik Abdulwehab Belayneh Jejaw Abate Aishah Fadila Adamu Syed Hani Abidi Tajudeen Adesanmi Adebisi Kulmira Abdykerimova Wakgari Mosisa Abdisa Alqassem H. Abuarqoub Ahmed Abdelrahman Abdelgalil Amanda Movo Rofiat Adewumi Adewumi Aderinoye-Rabiu Hasan Aalruz Krishna Prasad Acharya Meklit Girma Abebe Abdulbasit Sherfa Abduljelil Bhoomadevi A Ahmed AH Abdellatif Nermeen Abu-Elala Adekola George Adepoju Zirak Ahmed Abdulrahman Kalkidan Yibeltal Admassu Yau Adamu Nagah M. Abourashed Daniel Adeyemi Adepoju Olumide Abiodun Saira Afzal

Publication Name: Lancet Infectious Diseases

Publication Date: 2026-01-01

Volume: Unknown

Issue: Unknown

Page Range: Unknown

Description:

Background: Enteric infectious diseases claim more than 1 million lives annually and are among the top ten causes of death in children younger than 5 years. Remarkable global investment has been dedicated to enteric infectious disease prevention and control; however, the shifting global health landscape is testing the continuance of progress. To evaluate the current status and guide future interventions, we present the latest epidemiological estimates of enteric infectious diseases from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023 and assess progress towards the Global Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Pneumonia and Diarrhoea (GAPPD) mortality target of fewer than 20 deaths per 100 000 children younger than 5 years by 2025. Methods: We quantified the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of enteric infectious diseases by age, sex, and year across 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2023. In GBD 2023, the following were considered under the category of enteric infectious diseases: diarrhoeal diseases, enteric fever (typhoid and paratyphoid), invasive non-typhoidal Salmonella spp (iNTS) infections, and other intestinal infectious diseases. We also examined 15 aetiologies contributing to diarrhoeal diseases. Incidence and prevalence were estimated with DisMod-MR (version 2.1), a Bayesian meta-regression tool, drawing on data from systematic reviews, population-based surveys, claims data, and hospital sources. Cause-specific mortality was modelled with Cause of Death Ensemble Modelling based on data from sources including vital registration, mortality surveillance, verbal autopsy, and minimally invasive tissue sampling. Years of life lost and years lived with disability were computed and combined to derive DALYs. For aetiology-specific estimation, population-attributable fractions (PAFs) for 15 pathogens were derived with a counterfactual framework. Point estimates and 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated from 250 draws from the posterior distribution. Findings: In 2023, enteric infectious diseases resulted in an estimated 1·27 million (95% UI 0·963–1·68) deaths globally, declining from 3·69 million (3·04–4·56) in 1990. The global age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR) decreased from 74·1 (62·0–92·9) per 100 000 population to 16·4 (12·6–21·3) per 100 000 population during the same period. Diarrhoeal diseases accounted for most deaths in 2023 (1·11 million [0·811–1·54]), followed by enteric fever and iNTS. South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa remained the most affected regions in 2023, with 599 000 (441 000–882 000) and 501 000 (373 000–648 000) deaths due to enteric infectious diseases, respectively, predominantly from diarrhoeal disease. Rotavirus was the leading cause of all-age diarrhoeal disease deaths (PAF 16·3% [12·0–21·5]), followed by norovirus (10·2% [2·4–17·0]) and Shigella spp (9·3% [5·4–15·2]). Among children younger than 5 years, PAFs of deaths due to diarrhoeal diseases were 40·2% (32·5–48·5) for rotavirus, 24·0% (15·1–36·7) for Shigella spp, and 23·4% (13·7–34·3) for adenovirus. Across 204 countries and territories, 141 met the GAPPD mortality target in 2023. The driving aetiologies among countries that did not meet the target in 2023 varied slightly by GBD super-region, but the highest or second-highest number of deaths in children younger than 5 years were consistently attributed to rotavirus. Astrovirus and sapovirus, newly included in GBD 2023, were responsible for 24 600 (6290–49 000) and 18 800 (4650–44 400) deaths, respectively, in 2023, mainly in children younger than 5 years. Interpretation: Our findings show that mortality and ASMRs of enteric infectious diseases declined substantially between 1990 and 2023. This decline is consistent with the expansion of public health measures and broader socioeconomic development. However, the burden in 2023 remains considerably high, with the highest mortality concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia. Considering that more than a quarter of all countries had yet to meet the GAPPD mortality target in 2023, sustained efforts are needed to address the persistent burden in affected countries and to adapt to the changing global health landscape. Funding: Gates Foundation.

Open Access: Yes

DOI: 10.1016/S1473-3099(26)00194-5

Global, regional, and national burden of tuberculosis and multidrug-resistant tuberculosis by HIV status, 1990–2023: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023

Usha Adiga Emad M. Abdallah Meriem Abdoun Eman Abu-Gharbieh Amr Selim Abu Lila Siddig Ibrahim Abdelwahab Rashad Abdul-Ghani Anirudh Balakrishna Acharya Mohd Adnan Victor Adekanmbi Dhiraj Motilal Agarwal Asrat Agalu Abejew Samar Abd Elhafeez Jeza Muhamad Abdul Aziz Ripon Kumar Adhikary Muhammad Sohail Afzal Auwal Abdullahi Ukachukwu O. Abaraogu Rana Kamal Abu Farha Isaac Yeboah Addo Bilyaminu Abubakar Ahmad Y. Abuhelwa Olatunji O. Adetokunboh Ali Abuhaliema Obed Adonteng-Kissi Lawan Hassan Adamu Sherief Abd-Elsalam Swetha Acharya Williams Agyemang-Duah Mei Fong Liew Charles Oluwaseun Adetunji Juliana Bunmi Adetunji Aseel Aburub Deldar Morad Abdulah Abiola Victor Adepoju Jiawei He Makinde Adebayo Adeniyi Abdu A. Adamu Rezheen Fatah Abdulrahman Olumide Thomas Adeleke Feleke Doyore Agide Jorge R. Ledesma Babatope Oluwadamilare Adebiyi Olifan Zewdie Abil Sawsan Abuhammad Kamoru Ademola Adedokun Percival Delali Delali Agordoh Oluwawemimo Oluseun Adebowale Arailym Abilbayeva Ebenezer Afrifa-Yamoah Yasir M. Abdulateef Abdul Momin Rizwan Ahmad Mai Abdel Haleem Abusalah Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika Afolabi Samuel M. Ostroff Richard Gyan Aboagye Molalign Aligaz Aligaz Adisu Shimaa M. Aboelnaga Huong Thi Chu Navidha Aggarwal Wondimnew Desalegn Addis Ridwan Olamilekan Adesola Ali Abdolizadeh Arman Abdous Nagah M. Abourashed Prince Owusu Adoma Gizachew Beykaso Agafari Belete Muluadam Admassie Regina Mae Villanueva Dominguez Hana J. Abukhadijah Abdullahi Tunde Aborode Meixin Zhang Jianing Ma Abdulrakib Abdulrahim Hassan Abolhassani Saheed Ayodeji Adekola Sophie Mei Lin Whikehart Oluwatobi E. Adegbile Habtamu Abebe Getahun Nuhu Lawan Adamu None Abdullah Sadik Abdulwehab Belayneh Jejaw Abate Megan Verma Syed Hani Abidi Tajudeen Adesanmi Adebisi Wakgari Mosisa Abdisa Amanda Movo Mahdi Aghaalikhani Yasir M. Abdulateef Krishna Prasad Acharya Adamu Adamu Ahmad Hassan A. Abdou Zirak Ahmed Abdulrahman Nagah M. Abourashed Hatem A Eltaly Mazhar Abbas Vijay K. Aggarwal Adnan Ahmad Nermeen Abu-Elala Olumide Abiodun Saira Afzal

Publication Name: Lancet Infectious Diseases

Publication Date: 2026-01-01

Volume: Unknown

Issue: Unknown

Page Range: Unknown

Description:

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading global cause of death from a single infectious agent. Recent reductions in global health funding have threatened TB control, making comprehensive assessment of TB, HIV-related TB, and drug-resistant TB burdens before these disruptions essential for shaping effective responses. The WHO End TB Strategy sets targets of a 95% reduction in TB deaths and a 90% reduction in TB incidence between 2015 and 2035. Using results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023, this study aims to assess the burden of TB and multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB) across 204 countries and territories, and to evaluate progress towards the WHO End TB incidence and mortality targets. Methods: We quantified TB mortality using the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling platform with global vital registration, surveillance, verbal autopsy, and minimally invasive tissue sampling data. For TB morbidity estimation, we simultaneously modelled incidence, prevalence, and mortality by age and sex using DisMod-MR 2.1. A population attributable fraction (PAF) approach was applied to stratify morbidity and mortality estimates by HIV and drug-resistance status. We also calculated disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) as the sum of years of life lost and years lived with disability. For the risk factor analysis, a comparative risk assessment framework was used and PAFs were derived for alcohol use, smoking, and high fasting plasma glucose to determine the proportion of TB burden associated with these risk factors. Findings: In 2023, there were an estimated 9·11 million (95% uncertainty interval 8·04–10·3) incident cases of all-form TB, 1·22 million (0·98–1·49) deaths, and 54·6 million (43·8–65·5) DALYs globally. HIV-related TB comprised 781 000 (690 000–879 000) incident cases and 210 000 (142 000–279 000) deaths, contributing 11·0 million (7·56–14·3) DALYs. MDR-TB accounted for 466 000 (198 000–1 080 000) incident cases, 102 000 (31 700–238 000) deaths, and 3·96 million (1·31–9·01) DALYs. From 2015 to 2023, global all-form TB incidence rates declined by 19·2% (17·8–20·5) and deaths declined by 22·6% (4·7–35·7); declines were larger for drug-susceptible TB than for MDR-TB. Sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia had the highest mortality burdens in 2023; reductions in all-form TB incidence and mortality were uneven between 2000 and 2023, with limited progress in both measures in Latin America and the Caribbean. Removing smoking, alcohol use, and high fasting plasma glucose would reduce global TB deaths to 768 000 (592 000–970 000) and DALYs to 34·9 million (27·8–43·8) in 2023; MDR-TB deaths would decrease to 77 200 (23 400–183 000) and DALYs to 3·12 million (1·03–7·29). Interpretation: Global progress towards WHO End TB targets is disparate and fragile. Although many regions achieved meaningful gains, others have stagnated in recent years. The complexity of TB prevention is amplified by divergent MDR-TB trends, the persistent burden of HIV, and growing exposure to modifiable risk factors. Recent volatility in global health financing threatens to further destabilise this vulnerable epidemiological landscape; concerted action is urgently needed to temper disruptions and preserve progress. Funding: Gates Foundation.

Open Access: Yes

DOI: 10.1016/S1473-3099(26)00295-1