Vijay K. Aggarwal

60725451000

Publications - 2

Global, regional, and national burden of tuberculosis and multidrug-resistant tuberculosis by HIV status, 1990–2023: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023

Usha Adiga Emad M. Abdallah Meriem Abdoun Eman Abu-Gharbieh Amr Selim Abu Lila Siddig Ibrahim Abdelwahab Rashad Abdul-Ghani Anirudh Balakrishna Acharya Mohd Adnan Victor Adekanmbi Dhiraj Motilal Agarwal Asrat Agalu Abejew Samar Abd Elhafeez Jeza Muhamad Abdul Aziz Ripon Kumar Adhikary Muhammad Sohail Afzal Nermeen Abu-Elala Auwal Abdullahi Ukachukwu O. Abaraogu Rana Kamal Abu Farha Isaac Yeboah Addo Bilyaminu Abubakar Ahmad Y. Abuhelwa Olatunji O. Adetokunboh Ali Abuhaliema Obed Adonteng-Kissi Lawan Hassan Adamu Sherief Abd-Elsalam Swetha Acharya Williams Agyemang-Duah Mei Fong Liew Charles Oluwaseun Adetunji Juliana Bunmi Adetunji Aseel Aburub Deldar Morad Abdulah Abiola Victor Adepoju Jiawei He Makinde Adebayo Adeniyi Abdu A. Adamu Rezheen Fatah Abdulrahman Olumide Thomas Adeleke Feleke Doyore Agide Jorge R. Ledesma Babatope Oluwadamilare Adebiyi Olifan Zewdie Abil Sawsan Abuhammad Kamoru Ademola Adedokun Percival Delali Delali Agordoh Oluwawemimo Oluseun Adebowale Arailym Abilbayeva Ebenezer Afrifa-Yamoah Yasir M. Abdulateef Abdul Momin Rizwan Ahmad Mai Abdel Haleem Abusalah Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika Afolabi Samuel M. Ostroff Richard Gyan Aboagye Molalign Aligaz Aligaz Adisu Shimaa M. Aboelnaga Huong Thi Chu Navidha Aggarwal Wondimnew Desalegn Addis Ridwan Olamilekan Adesola Ali Abdolizadeh Arman Abdous Nagah M. Abourashed Prince Owusu Adoma Gizachew Beykaso Agafari Belete Muluadam Admassie Regina Mae Villanueva Dominguez Hana J. Abukhadijah Abdullahi Tunde Aborode Meixin Zhang Jianing Ma Abdulrakib Abdulrahim Hassan Abolhassani Saheed Ayodeji Adekola Sophie Mei Lin Whikehart Oluwatobi E. Adegbile Habtamu Abebe Getahun Nuhu Lawan Adamu None Abdullah Sadik Abdulwehab Belayneh Jejaw Abate Megan Verma Syed Hani Abidi Tajudeen Adesanmi Adebisi Wakgari Mosisa Abdisa Amanda Movo Mahdi Aghaalikhani Yasir M. Abdulateef Krishna Prasad Acharya Adamu Adamu Ahmad Hassan A. Abdou Zirak Ahmed Abdulrahman Nagah M. Abourashed Hatem A Eltaly Mazhar Abbas Vijay K. Aggarwal Adnan Ahmad Nermeen Abu-Elala Olumide Abiodun Saira Afzal

Publication Name: Lancet Infectious Diseases

Publication Date: 2026-01-01

Volume: Unknown

Issue: Unknown

Page Range: Unknown

Description:

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading global cause of death from a single infectious agent. Recent reductions in global health funding have threatened TB control, making comprehensive assessment of TB, HIV-related TB, and drug-resistant TB burdens before these disruptions essential for shaping effective responses. The WHO End TB Strategy sets targets of a 95% reduction in TB deaths and a 90% reduction in TB incidence between 2015 and 2035. Using results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023, this study aims to assess the burden of TB and multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB) across 204 countries and territories, and to evaluate progress towards the WHO End TB incidence and mortality targets. Methods: We quantified TB mortality using the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling platform with global vital registration, surveillance, verbal autopsy, and minimally invasive tissue sampling data. For TB morbidity estimation, we simultaneously modelled incidence, prevalence, and mortality by age and sex using DisMod-MR 2.1. A population attributable fraction (PAF) approach was applied to stratify morbidity and mortality estimates by HIV and drug-resistance status. We also calculated disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) as the sum of years of life lost and years lived with disability. For the risk factor analysis, a comparative risk assessment framework was used and PAFs were derived for alcohol use, smoking, and high fasting plasma glucose to determine the proportion of TB burden associated with these risk factors. Findings: In 2023, there were an estimated 9·11 million (95% uncertainty interval 8·04–10·3) incident cases of all-form TB, 1·22 million (0·98–1·49) deaths, and 54·6 million (43·8–65·5) DALYs globally. HIV-related TB comprised 781 000 (690 000–879 000) incident cases and 210 000 (142 000–279 000) deaths, contributing 11·0 million (7·56–14·3) DALYs. MDR-TB accounted for 466 000 (198 000–1 080 000) incident cases, 102 000 (31 700–238 000) deaths, and 3·96 million (1·31–9·01) DALYs. From 2015 to 2023, global all-form TB incidence rates declined by 19·2% (17·8–20·5) and deaths declined by 22·6% (4·7–35·7); declines were larger for drug-susceptible TB than for MDR-TB. Sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia had the highest mortality burdens in 2023; reductions in all-form TB incidence and mortality were uneven between 2000 and 2023, with limited progress in both measures in Latin America and the Caribbean. Removing smoking, alcohol use, and high fasting plasma glucose would reduce global TB deaths to 768 000 (592 000–970 000) and DALYs to 34·9 million (27·8–43·8) in 2023; MDR-TB deaths would decrease to 77 200 (23 400–183 000) and DALYs to 3·12 million (1·03–7·29). Interpretation: Global progress towards WHO End TB targets is disparate and fragile. Although many regions achieved meaningful gains, others have stagnated in recent years. The complexity of TB prevention is amplified by divergent MDR-TB trends, the persistent burden of HIV, and growing exposure to modifiable risk factors. Recent volatility in global health financing threatens to further destabilise this vulnerable epidemiological landscape; concerted action is urgently needed to temper disruptions and preserve progress. Funding: Gates Foundation.

Open Access: Yes

DOI: 10.1016/S1473-3099(26)00295-1

Global, regional, and national burden of road injuries 1990–2023: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023

Dariush Abtahi Meriem Abdoun Sami Saleh Alabdulwahab Siddig Ibrahim Abdelwahab Marjan Ajami Dari Alhuwail Victor Adekanmbi Fadwa Naji Alhalaiqa Auwal Abdullahi Ukachukwu O. Abaraogu Rana Kamal Abu Farha Isaac Yeboah Addo Shereen M. Aleidi Ahmad Y. Abuhelwa Irfan Ali Clifford Afoakwah Obed Adonteng-Kissi Sheikh Mohammad Alif Williams Agyemang-Duah Fuad Hamdi A. Abuadas Ali Ahmadi Stephanie C.C. van der Lubbe Fahmi Y. Al-Ashwal Ayman Ahmed Deldar Morad Abdulah Mahnaz Afshari Syed Mahfuz Al Hasan Danish Ahmad Mohammed Albashtawy Khurshid Alam Olumide Thomas Adeleke Mohamed Abouzid Hansani Madushika Abeywickrama Babatope Oluwadamilare Adebiyi Armita Abedi Dina Abushanab Muktar Beshir Ahmed Kamoru Ademola Adedokun A. Bhoomadevi Muayyad M. Ahmad Aqeel Ahmad Neda Akhoundi Miracle Ayomikun Adesina Hedayat Abbastabar Ebenezer Afrifa-Yamoah Fahad Mashhour Alanezi Tauseef Ahmad Abdul Momin Rizwan Ahmad Hasan Aalruz Niveen M.E. Abu-Rmeileh Muath A. Alammar Sajjad Ahmad Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika Afolabi Richard Gyan Aboagye Shreyash Agrawal Hussin Albargi Kamran Ali Nagah M. Abourashed Aiman P. Afsar Toufik Abdul-Rahman Shabbir Ahmed Mohammed Usman Ali Prince Owusu Adoma Madeline E. Moberg Hana J. Abukhadijah Abdullahi Tunde Aborode Khabir Ahmad Amani Alansari Salome Wumpini Agordoh Mehrunnisha Sharif Ahmed Zinat Abdrakhmanova Dolapo Emmanuel Ajala Aminu Kende Abubakar Hailey Lenox Tesfaye Birhanu Abebe Ashraf Alhumaidi Amidu Alhassan None Abdullah Aishah Fadila Adamu Apurba Acharya Mostafa Alam Teklebirhan Abrha Abrha Zahra Abbasi Dolatabadi Mohamed Sherif Ali Ahmed Tajudeen Adesanmi Adebisi Mohammad Ahmmad Mahmoud Al Zoubi Dominique Aluquin Mahdi Aghaalikhani Hasan Aalruz Haroon Ahmed Mohammad Shahid Ali Fahmi Y. Al-Ashwal Adekola George Adepoju Vijay K. Aggarwal Bhoomadevi A Mohammed Fasihul Alam Yawen Zhou Kiran Acharya Nagah M. Abourashed Salah Al Awaidy Olumide Abiodun Saira Afzal Mohammad Khursheed Alam Ali Ahmed

Publication Name: Lancet Public Health

Publication Date: 2026-01-01

Volume: Unknown

Issue: Unknown

Page Range: Unknown

Description:

Background Road injuries are a leading cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide. Years of international efforts have aimed to strengthen policy engagement, including the 2020 UN General Assembly's proclamation of the Second Decade of Action for Road Safety (2021–30), targeting a 50% reduction in road traffic deaths and serious injuries by 2030. The aim of this study is to provide estimates to monitor progress and identify intervention gaps. Methods As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2023, we estimated incidence, mortality, and morbidity of road injuries for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2023. Four road injury types and 47 nature-of-injury categories were examined. Morbidity and mortality data from clinical records, vital registration, and police reports were harmonised using meta-analytic techniques to ensure consistency and correct for systematic bias. Incidence was modelled with the meta-regression tool Disease Modelling-Meta-Regression version 2.1 and cause-specific mortality with the Cause of Death Ensemble model, both incorporating location-specific covariates to support interpolation. Years of life lived with disability (YLDs) were estimated from the prevalence and severity of the nature of road injury, and years of life lost (YLLs) from the number of cause-specific deaths multiplied by the standard life expectancy at the age of death. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were the sum of YLLs and YLDs. All metrics were calculated with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). Findings In 2023, there were 50·9 million (95% UI 46·1–56·1) road injury incident cases, 1·34 million (1·04–1·58) deaths, and 75·3 million (59·8–89·2) DALYs globally. Road injuries were the leading global cause of death among males aged 10–39 years. Between 1990 and 2023, age-standardised incidence decreased by 38·3% (95% UI 36·9–39·7) and mortality decreased by 32·3% (6·1–49·0), but progress varied widely by World Bank income group. Mortality in low-income countries (43·8 [95% UI 31·7–56·0] deaths per 100 000 population) was approximately six times higher than in high-income countries (7·5 [7·1–7·9] deaths per 100 000), despite the high-income countries showing the highest age-standardised incidence rates (858·1 [95% UI 781·9–947·1] cases per 100 000). In the past decade, many countries achieved notable reductions in road injuries, but others, including Ghana and the USA, saw increases. More severe injuries tended to occur in low-income and middle-income countries. Interpretation Although global incidence, mortality, and DALY rates from road injuries have declined, progress remains uneven, with pronounced disparities across income groups reflecting systemic inadequacies in infrastructure, vehicle standards, enforcement, and post-crash care. Strengthening emergency response, improving road design, enforcing safety measures, and adapting policies to the evolving demographics remain essential. Funding Gates Foundation.

Open Access: Yes

DOI: 10.1016/S2468-2667(26)00141-6