Muktar Beshir Ahmed

57207802317

Publications - 4

Global, regional, and national trends in routine childhood vaccination coverage from 1980 to 2023 with forecasts to 2030: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023

Catherine Bisignano Ashley A. Harris Amanda E. Smith Paulina A. Lindstedt Simeon Okechukwu Ajakwe Olivia D. Nesbit Taylor Noyes Noga Shalev Latera Tesfaye Olana Catherine M. Antony Nancy Fullman Sharareh Eskandarieh Mushood Ahmed Naveed Ahmed Rana Kamal Abu Farha Kamoru Ademola Adedokun Nurudeen A. Adegoke Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika Afolabi Giuseppina Affinito Dolapo Emmanuel Ajala Reed J.D. Sorensen Eman Abu-Gharbieh Chun Wei Yuan Stein Emil Vollset Stephen S. Lim Jonathan F. Mosser Andy Stergachis Farbod Khosravi Sonali Kochhar Armita Abedi Usha Adiga Mitra Abbasifard Mohammad Amin Aalipour Faezeh Abbaspour Tomislav Mestrovic Ripon Kumar Adhikary Aqeel Ahmad Dariush Abtahi Mohd Adnan Simon I. Hay Abdollah Jafarzadeh Hana J. Abukhadijah Danish Ahmad Amin Sharifan Rotimi Felix Afolabi Saira Afzal Emad M. Abdallah Samar Abd Elhafeez Meqdad Saleh Ahmed Muktar Beshir Ahmed Syed Anees Ahmed Suneth Buddhika Agampodi Khurshid Ahmad Tauseef Ahmad Sepehr Aghajanian Ayman Ahmed Ramy Mohamed Ghazy Meriem Abdoun Salahdein Aburuz Lucas Guimarães Abreu Alireza Shakeri Sam Byrne Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani Emily Haeuser Jason Nguyen Catalina Raggi Susan A. McLaughlin Rana Kamal Abu Farha Dmitry Abramov Hedayat Abbastabar Sherief Abd-Elsalam Adam Abdullahi Faezeh Abbaspour Reda Abdel-Hameed Samar Abd ElHafeez Atef Abdelkader Deldar Morad Abdulah Haroon Ahmed Lisa C. Adams Constanza Elizabeth Aguilera Arriagada Mahsa Ahadi Rabbiya Ahmad Shoaib Ahmad Toufik Abdul-Rahman Asrat Agalu Abejew Abdu A. Adamu Juliana Bunmi Adetunji Kulmira Abdykerimova Rahim Abo Kasem Mohamed Abouzid Roberto Ariel Abeldaño Zuñiga Anirudh Balakrishna Acharya Juan Manuel Acuna Meshack Achore Ousman Adal Habeeb Abiodun Afolabi Arman Abdous Hasan Aalruz Auwal Abdullahi Bilyaminu Abubakar David Adedia Syed Hani Abidi Hassan Abolhassani Olumide Abiodun Richard Gyan Aboagye Ulric Sena Abonie Abdullahi Tunde Aborode Wakgari Mosisa Abdisa Oyelola A. Adegboye Mohammad Mahdi Bastan Dhiraj Motilal Agarwal Tajudeen Adesanmi Adebisi Oluwatobi E. Adegbile Olumide Thomas Adeleke Leticia Akua Adzigbli Hafsa Zia Gizachew Taddesse Akalu Molalegne Bitew Mache Tsadik Adhana Feven Sahle Gebre Alireza Mirkheshti Sohrab Salimi Seyed Mohammad Seyed Alshohadaei Jiawei He Prince Owusu Adoma Dorsa Salabat Mohamed Jalloh Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar Sina Shool Melika Jameie Jafar Karami Farzad Kompani Mohammad Ali Mansournia Abdolreza Mohammadi Amin Mohsenzadeh Aleksandr Y. Aravkin Omid Dadras Iman M. Talaat Ali H. Mokdad Xiaochen Dai Lalit Dandona Rakhi Dandona Fereshteh Baghizadeh Mahdis Bayat Minoo Heidari Almasi Ali Asghar Kolahi Ali Nikoobar Mohammad Mahdi Rashidi Firoozeh Madadi Mehdi Safari Mastooreh Sagharichi Maryam Shayan Zahra Siavashpour Mohsen Rezaeian Shakiba Ghasemi Assl Atakan Orscelik Yigit Can Senol Michael Zastrozhin Amin Azizan Nazila Rezaei Pegah Salimi Pormehr Amin Sedigh Farshad Shahkarami Kazem Ghaffari Georgia Smith Samuel James Herold Annie Haakenstad Christopher J.L. Murray Hannah Elizabeth Robinson-Oden Ghazal Arjmand Mahsa Asadi Anar Rasoul Ebrahimi Seyed Ataollah Madinezad Behnaz Niroomand Seyed Kiarash Sadat Rafiei Sara Bagheri Antonio Olivas-Martinez Williams Agyemang-Duah Nagah M. Abourashed

Publication Name: Lancet

Publication Date: 2025-07-19

Volume: 406

Issue: 10500

Page Range: 235-260

Description:

Background: Since its inception in 1974, the Essential Programme on Immunization (EPI) has achieved remarkable success, averting the deaths of an estimated 154 million children worldwide through routine childhood vaccination. However, more recent decades have seen persistent coverage inequities and stagnating progress, which have been further amplified by the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2019, WHO set ambitious goals for improving vaccine coverage globally through the Immunization Agenda 2030 (IA2030). Now halfway through the decade, understanding past and recent coverage trends can help inform and reorient strategies for approaching these aims in the next 5 years. Methods: Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2023, this study provides updated global, regional, and national estimates of routine childhood vaccine coverage from 1980 to 2023 for 204 countries and territories for 11 vaccine-dose combinations recommended by WHO for all children globally. Employing advanced modelling techniques, this analysis accounts for data biases and heterogeneity and integrates new methodologies to model vaccine scale-up and COVID-19 pandemic-related disruptions. To contextualise historic coverage trends and gains still needed to achieve the IA2030 coverage targets, we supplement these results with several secondary analyses: (1) we assess the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on vaccine coverage; (2) we forecast coverage of select life-course vaccines up to 2030; and (3) we analyse progress needed to reduce the number of zero-dose children by half between 2023 and 2030. Findings: Overall, global coverage for the original EPI vaccines against diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis (first dose [DTP1] and third dose [DTP3]), measles (MCV1), polio (Pol3), and tuberculosis (BCG) nearly doubled from 1980 to 2023. However, this long-term trend masks recent challenges. Coverage gains slowed between 2010 and 2019 in many countries and territories, including declines in 21 of 36 high-income countries and territories for at least one of these vaccine doses (excluding BCG, which has been removed from routine immunisation schedules in some countries and territories). The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated these challenges, with global rates for these vaccines declining sharply since 2020, and still not returning to pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels as of 2023. Coverage for newer vaccines developed and introduced in more recent years, such as immunisations against pneumococcal disease (PCV3) and rotavirus (complete series; RotaC) and a second dose of the measles vaccine (MCV2), saw continued increases globally during the COVID-19 pandemic due to ongoing introductions and scale-ups, but at slower rates than expected in the absence of the pandemic. Forecasts to 2030 for DTP3, PCV3, and MCV2 suggest that only DTP3 would reach the IA2030 target of 90% global coverage, and only under an optimistic scenario. The number of zero-dose children, proxied as children younger than 1 year who do not receive DTP1, decreased by 74·9% (95% uncertainty interval 72·1–77·3) globally between 1980 and 2019, with most of those declines reached during the 1980s and the 2000s. After 2019, counts of zero-dose children rose to a COVID 19-era peak of 18·6 million (17·6–20·0) in 2021. Most zero-dose children remain concentrated in conflict-affected regions and those with various constraints on resources available to put towards vaccination services, particularly sub-Saharan Africa. As of 2023, more than 50% of the 15·7 million (14·6–17·0) global zero-dose children resided in just eight countries (Nigeria, India, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Somalia, Sudan, Indonesia, and Brazil), emphasising persistent inequities. Interpretation: Our estimates of current vaccine coverage and forecasts to 2030 suggest that achieving IA2030 targets, such as halving zero-dose children compared with 2019 levels and reaching 90% global coverage for life-course vaccines DTP3, PCV3, and MCV2, will require accelerated progress. Substantial increases in coverage are necessary in many countries and territories, with those in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia facing the greatest challenges. Recent declines will need to be reversed to restore previous coverage levels in Latin America and the Caribbean, especially for DTP1, DTP3, and Pol3. These findings underscore the crucial need for targeted, equitable immunisation strategies. Strengthening primary health-care systems, addressing vaccine misinformation and hesitancy, and adapting to local contexts are essential to advancing coverage. COVID-19 pandemic recovery efforts, such as WHO's Big Catch-Up, as well as efforts to bolster routine services must prioritise reaching marginalised populations and target subnational geographies to regain lost ground and achieve global immunisation goals. Funding: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance.

Open Access: Yes

DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(25)01037-2

The global, regional, and national burden of cancer, 1990–2023, with forecasts to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023

Amani Alansari Ibukun Modupe Adesiyan Abdallah H.A. Abd Al Magied Mohammed Altigani Abdalla Arash Abdollahi Wael M. Abdel-Rahman Aminu Kende Abubakar Ahmed Abu-Zaid Kamoru Ademola Adedokun Nurudeen A. Adegoke Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika Afolabi Mohadese Ahmadzade Anisuddin Ahmed Fahmi Y. Al-Ashwal Dolapo Emmanuel Ajala Ashraf Nabiel Abdalla Raghu Ram Achar Eman Abu-Gharbieh Lisa C. Adams Muayyad M. Ahmad Maryam Abbasalipour bashash Mesfin Abebe Armita Abedi Sajjad Ahmad Syed Anees Ahmed Usha Adiga Faisal Ahmad Sajjad Ahmad A. Bhoomadevi Faisal Ahmad Aqeel Ahmad Hasan Aalruz Lisa M. Force Kayleigh Bhangdia Jonathan M. Kocarnik Miranda L. May Feleke Doyore Agide Andrew Crist Roland Eghoghosoa Akhigbe Karolina Akinosoglou Omar Al Omari Alemwork Abie Hana J. Abukhadijah Muhammad Sohail Afzal Danish Ahmad Amir Mahmoud Ahmadzade Salah Al Awaidy Nasir Abbas Maryam Abbasalipour bashash Hanadi Al Hamad Syed Mahfuz Al Hasan Samar Abd Elhafeez Navidha Aggarwal Gasha Salih Ahmed Mehrunnisha Sharif Ahmed Meqdad Saleh Ahmed Muktar Beshir Ahmed Nesredin Ahmed Marjan Ajami Mohammad Al Qadire Syed Anees Ahmed Suneth Buddhika Agampodi Khurshid Ahmad César Agostinis Sobrinho Tauseef Ahmad Elham Ahmadi Ayman Ahmed Meriem Abdoun Salahdein Aburuz Yazan Al Thaher Zufishan Alam Lucas Guimarães Abreu Lawan Hassan Adamu Bhoomadevi A Louise Penberthy Natalie Pritchett Alistair Acheson Lee Deitesfeld Ahmed M. Afifi Bright Opoku Ahinkorah Fatemeh Afrashteh Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani Juan Manuel Acuna Arman Abdous Hasan Aalruz Auwal Abdullahi Bilyaminu Abubakar Isaac Yeboah Addo Syed Hani Abidi Hassan Abolhassani Olumide Abiodun Richard Gyan Aboagye Ulric Sena Abonie Habeeb Omoponle Adewuyi Parsa Abdi Wakgari Mosisa Abdisa Luai A. Ahmed Victor Adekanmbi Ibrar Ahmed Daba Abdissa Arya Afrooghe Omar Ali Mohammed Al Zaabi Khurshid Alam Leticia Akua Adzigbli Nasir Abbas Prince Owusu Adoma Khurshid Ahmad Williams Agyemang-Duah

Publication Name: Lancet

Publication Date: 2025-10-11

Volume: 406

Issue: 10512

Page Range: 1565-1586

Description:

Background: Cancer is a leading cause of death globally. Accurate cancer burden information is crucial for policy planning, but many countries do not have up-to-date cancer surveillance data. To inform global cancer-control efforts, we used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023 framework to generate and analyse estimates of cancer burden for 47 cancer types or groupings by age, sex, and 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2023, cancer burden attributable to selected risk factors from 1990 to 2023, and forecasted cancer burden up to 2050. Methods: Cancer estimation in GBD 2023 used data from population-based cancer registration systems, vital registration systems, and verbal autopsies. Cancer mortality was estimated using ensemble models, with incidence informed by mortality estimates and mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Prevalence estimates were generated from modelled survival estimates, then multiplied by disability weights to estimate years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were estimated by multiplying age-specific cancer deaths by the GBD standard life expectancy at the age of death. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were calculated as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. We used the GBD 2023 comparative risk assessment framework to estimate cancer burden attributable to 44 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. To forecast cancer burden from 2024 to 2050, we used the GBD 2023 forecasting framework, which included forecasts of relevant risk factor exposures and used Socio-demographic Index as a covariate for forecasting the proportion of each cancer not affected by these risk factors. Progress towards the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target 3.4 aim to reduce non-communicable disease mortality by a third between 2015 and 2030 was estimated for cancer. Findings: In 2023, excluding non-melanoma skin cancers, there were 18·5 million (95% uncertainty interval 16·4 to 20·7) incident cases of cancer and 10·4 million (9·65 to 10·9) deaths, contributing to 271 million (255 to 285) DALYs globally. Of these, 57·9% (56·1 to 59·8) of incident cases and 65·8% (64·3 to 67·6) of cancer deaths occurred in low-income to upper-middle-income countries based on World Bank income group classifications. Cancer was the second leading cause of deaths globally in 2023 after cardiovascular diseases. There were 4·33 million (3·85 to 4·78) risk-attributable cancer deaths globally in 2023, comprising 41·7% (37·8 to 45·4) of all cancer deaths. Risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 72·3% (57·1 to 86·8) from 1990 to 2023, whereas overall global cancer deaths increased by 74·3% (62·2 to 86·2) over the same period. The reference forecasts (the most likely future) estimate that in 2050 there will be 30·5 million (22·9 to 38·9) cases and 18·6 million (15·6 to 21·5) deaths from cancer globally, 60·7% (41·9 to 80·6) and 74·5% (50·1 to 104·2) increases from 2024, respectively. These forecasted increases in deaths are greater in low-income and middle-income countries (90·6% [61·0 to 127·0]) compared with high-income countries (42·8% [28·3 to 58·6]). Most of these increases are likely due to demographic changes, as age-standardised death rates are forecast to change by –5·6% (–12·8 to 4·6) between 2024 and 2050 globally. Between 2015 and 2030, the probability of dying due to cancer between the ages of 30 years and 70 years was forecasted to have a relative decrease of 6·5% (3·2 to 10·3). Interpretation: Cancer is a major contributor to global disease burden, with increasing numbers of cases and deaths forecasted up to 2050 and a disproportionate growth in burden in countries with scarce resources. The decline in age-standardised mortality rates from cancer is encouraging but insufficient to meet the SDG target set for 2030. Effectively and sustainably addressing cancer burden globally will require comprehensive national and international efforts that consider health systems and context in the development and implementation of cancer-control strategies across the continuum of prevention, diagnosis, and treatment. Funding: Gates Foundation, St Jude Children's Research Hospital, and St Baldrick's Foundation.

Open Access: Yes

DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(25)01635-6

Global, regional, and national burden of breast cancer among females, 1990–2023, with forecasts to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023

Usha Adiga Meriem Abdoun Eman Abu-Gharbieh Anisuddin Ahmed Siddig Ibrahim Abdelwahab Roland Eghoghosoa Akhigbe Marjan Ajami Mohd Adnan Victor Adekanmbi Mehrandokht Abedini Reda Abdel-Hameed Samar Abd Elhafeez Rabail Alam Muhammad Sohail Afzal Jonathan M. Kocarnik Auwal Abdullahi Ukachukwu O. Abaraogu Khurshid Ahmad Rana Kamal Abu Farha Isaac Yeboah Addo Bilyaminu Abubakar Juan Manuel Acuna Nasir Abbas Hanadi Al Hamad César Agostinis Sobrinho Habeeb Omoponle Adewuyi Swetha Acharya Williams Agyemang-Duah Lisa C. Adams Fuad Hamdi A. Abuadas Dagninet Derebe Abie Ali Ahmadi Yazan Al Thaher Bright Opoku Ahinkorah Natalie Pritchett Nurudeen A. Adegoke Ayman Ahmed Deldar Morad Abdulah Kedir Hussein Abegaz Syed Mahfuz Al Hasan Mohammad Al Qadire Danish Ahmad Mohammed Albashtawy Feleke Doyore Agide Babatope Oluwadamilare Adebiyi Armita Abedi Dina Abushanab David Adedia Muktar Beshir Ahmed Kamoru Ademola Adedokun A. Bhoomadevi Muayyad M. Ahmad Aqeel Ahmad Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani Miracle Ayomikun Adesina Domenico Albano Ulric Sena Abonie Mai Abdel Haleem Abusalah Hasan Aalruz Kayleigh Bhangdia Temitayo Esther Adeyeoluwa Gasha Salih Ahmed Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika Afolabi Louise Penberthy Richard Gyan Aboagye Mesfin Abebe Mahnaz Ahmadi Hazim S. Ababneh Zhanar Abu Toufik Abdul-Rahman Naveed Ahmed Hana J. Abukhadijah Leticia Akua Adzigbli Alistair Acheson Alemwork Abie Mehrunnisha Sharif Ahmed Hassan Abolhassani Arash Abdollahi Dolapo Emmanuel Ajala Saheed Ayodeji Adekola Aminu Kende Abubakar Abebaw Alamrew Lee Deitesfeld Austin J. Ahlstrom Meqdad Saleh Ahmed None Abdullah Mohammed Mehdi Abrar Mohammad Ahmmad Mahmoud Al Zoubi Kulmira Abdykerimova Andrew Crist Miranda L. May Aram Mahmood Ahmed Sepideh Abdi Hasan Aalruz Syed Anees Ahmed Haroon Ahmed Zhanar Abu MD Faisal Ahmed Bhoomadevi A Salah Al Awaidy Wael M. Abdel-Rahman Olumide Abiodun Muhammad Nadeem Akhtar

Publication Name: Lancet Oncology

Publication Date: 2026-03-01

Volume: 27

Issue: 3

Page Range: 302-326

Description:

Background Breast cancer is a leading cause of mortality and morbidity among females worldwide. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023, we provided an updated comprehensive assessment of the epidemiological trends, disease burden, and risk factors associated with breast cancer globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2023. Methods Breast cancer incidence, mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were estimated by age and sex for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2023. Mortality estimates were generated using GBD Cause of Death Ensemble models, leveraging data from population-based cancer registration systems, vital registration systems, and verbal autopsies. Mortality-to-incidence ratios were calculated to derive both mortality and incidence estimates. Prevalence was calculated by combining incidence and modelled survival estimates. YLLs were established by multiplying age-specific deaths with the GBD standard life expectancy at the age of death. YLDs were estimated by applying disability weights to prevalence estimates. The sum of YLLs and YLDs equalled the number of DALYs. Breast cancer burden attributable to seven risk factors was examined through the comparative risk assessment framework. The GBD forecasting framework was used to forecast breast cancer incidence and mortality from 2024 to 2050. Age-standardised rates were calculated for each metric using the GBD 2023 world standard population. Findings In 2023, there were an estimated 2·30 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·01 to 2·61) breast cancer incident cases, 764 000 deaths (672 000 to 854 000), and 24·1 million (21·3 to 27·5) DALYs among females globally. In the World Bank low-income group, where a low age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR) was estimated (44·2 per 100 000 person-years [31·2 to 58·4]), the age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR) was the highest (24·1 per 100 000 [16·8 to 31·9]). The highest ASIR was in the high-income group (75·7 per 100 000 [67·1 to 84·0]), and the lowest ASMR was in the upper-middle-income group (11·2 per 100 000 [10·2 to 12·3]). Between 1990 and 2023, the ASIR in the low-income group increased by 147·2% (38·1 to 271·7), compared with a 1·2% (–11·5 to 17·2) change in the high-income group. The ASMR decreased in the high-income group, changing by –29·9% (–33·6 to –25·9), but increased by 99·3% (12·5 to 202·9) in the low-income group. The increase in age-standardised DALY rates followed that of ASMRs. Risk factors such as dietary risks, tobacco use, and high fasting plasma glucose contributed to 28·3% (16·6 to 38·9) of breast cancer DALYs in 2023. The risk factors with a decrease in attributable DALYs between 1990 and 2023 were high alcohol use and tobacco. By 2050, the global incident cases of breast cancer among females were forecast to reach 3·56 million (2·29 to 4·83), with 1·37 million (0·841 to 2·02) deaths. Interpretation The stable incidence and declining mortality rates of female breast cancer in high-income nations reflect success in screening, diagnosis, and treatment. In contrast, the concurrent rise in incidence and mortality in other regions signals health system deficits. Without effective interventions, many countries will fall short of the WHO Global Breast Cancer Initiative's ambitious target of achieving an annual reduction of 2·5% in age-standardised mortality rates by 2040. The mounting breast cancer burden, disproportionately affecting some of the world's most vulnerable populations, will further exacerbate health inequalities across the globe without decisive immediate action. Funding Gates Foundation, St Jude Children's Research Hospital.

Open Access: Yes

DOI: 10.1016/S1470-2045(25)00730-2

Global, regional, and national burden of road injuries 1990–2023: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023

Dariush Abtahi Meriem Abdoun Sami Saleh Alabdulwahab Siddig Ibrahim Abdelwahab Marjan Ajami Dari Alhuwail Victor Adekanmbi Fadwa Naji Alhalaiqa Auwal Abdullahi Ukachukwu O. Abaraogu Rana Kamal Abu Farha Isaac Yeboah Addo Shereen M. Aleidi Ahmad Y. Abuhelwa Irfan Ali Clifford Afoakwah Obed Adonteng-Kissi Sheikh Mohammad Alif Williams Agyemang-Duah Fuad Hamdi A. Abuadas Ali Ahmadi Stephanie C.C. van der Lubbe Fahmi Y. Al-Ashwal Ayman Ahmed Deldar Morad Abdulah Mahnaz Afshari Syed Mahfuz Al Hasan Danish Ahmad Mohammed Albashtawy Khurshid Alam Olumide Thomas Adeleke Mohamed Abouzid Hansani Madushika Abeywickrama Babatope Oluwadamilare Adebiyi Armita Abedi Dina Abushanab Muktar Beshir Ahmed Kamoru Ademola Adedokun A. Bhoomadevi Muayyad M. Ahmad Aqeel Ahmad Neda Akhoundi Miracle Ayomikun Adesina Hedayat Abbastabar Ebenezer Afrifa-Yamoah Fahad Mashhour Alanezi Tauseef Ahmad Abdul Momin Rizwan Ahmad Hasan Aalruz Niveen M.E. Abu-Rmeileh Muath A. Alammar Sajjad Ahmad Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika Afolabi Richard Gyan Aboagye Shreyash Agrawal Hussin Albargi Kamran Ali Nagah M. Abourashed Aiman P. Afsar Toufik Abdul-Rahman Shabbir Ahmed Mohammed Usman Ali Prince Owusu Adoma Madeline E. Moberg Hana J. Abukhadijah Abdullahi Tunde Aborode Khabir Ahmad Amani Alansari Salome Wumpini Agordoh Mehrunnisha Sharif Ahmed Zinat Abdrakhmanova Dolapo Emmanuel Ajala Aminu Kende Abubakar Hailey Lenox Tesfaye Birhanu Abebe Ashraf Alhumaidi Amidu Alhassan None Abdullah Aishah Fadila Adamu Apurba Acharya Mostafa Alam Teklebirhan Abrha Abrha Zahra Abbasi Dolatabadi Mohamed Sherif Ali Ahmed Tajudeen Adesanmi Adebisi Mohammad Ahmmad Mahmoud Al Zoubi Dominique Aluquin Mahdi Aghaalikhani Hasan Aalruz Haroon Ahmed Mohammad Shahid Ali Fahmi Y. Al-Ashwal Adekola George Adepoju Vijay K. Aggarwal Bhoomadevi A Mohammed Fasihul Alam Yawen Zhou Kiran Acharya Nagah M. Abourashed Salah Al Awaidy Olumide Abiodun Saira Afzal Mohammad Khursheed Alam Ali Ahmed

Publication Name: Lancet Public Health

Publication Date: 2026-01-01

Volume: Unknown

Issue: Unknown

Page Range: Unknown

Description:

Background Road injuries are a leading cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide. Years of international efforts have aimed to strengthen policy engagement, including the 2020 UN General Assembly's proclamation of the Second Decade of Action for Road Safety (2021–30), targeting a 50% reduction in road traffic deaths and serious injuries by 2030. The aim of this study is to provide estimates to monitor progress and identify intervention gaps. Methods As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2023, we estimated incidence, mortality, and morbidity of road injuries for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2023. Four road injury types and 47 nature-of-injury categories were examined. Morbidity and mortality data from clinical records, vital registration, and police reports were harmonised using meta-analytic techniques to ensure consistency and correct for systematic bias. Incidence was modelled with the meta-regression tool Disease Modelling-Meta-Regression version 2.1 and cause-specific mortality with the Cause of Death Ensemble model, both incorporating location-specific covariates to support interpolation. Years of life lived with disability (YLDs) were estimated from the prevalence and severity of the nature of road injury, and years of life lost (YLLs) from the number of cause-specific deaths multiplied by the standard life expectancy at the age of death. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were the sum of YLLs and YLDs. All metrics were calculated with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). Findings In 2023, there were 50·9 million (95% UI 46·1–56·1) road injury incident cases, 1·34 million (1·04–1·58) deaths, and 75·3 million (59·8–89·2) DALYs globally. Road injuries were the leading global cause of death among males aged 10–39 years. Between 1990 and 2023, age-standardised incidence decreased by 38·3% (95% UI 36·9–39·7) and mortality decreased by 32·3% (6·1–49·0), but progress varied widely by World Bank income group. Mortality in low-income countries (43·8 [95% UI 31·7–56·0] deaths per 100 000 population) was approximately six times higher than in high-income countries (7·5 [7·1–7·9] deaths per 100 000), despite the high-income countries showing the highest age-standardised incidence rates (858·1 [95% UI 781·9–947·1] cases per 100 000). In the past decade, many countries achieved notable reductions in road injuries, but others, including Ghana and the USA, saw increases. More severe injuries tended to occur in low-income and middle-income countries. Interpretation Although global incidence, mortality, and DALY rates from road injuries have declined, progress remains uneven, with pronounced disparities across income groups reflecting systemic inadequacies in infrastructure, vehicle standards, enforcement, and post-crash care. Strengthening emergency response, improving road design, enforcing safety measures, and adapting policies to the evolving demographics remain essential. Funding Gates Foundation.

Open Access: Yes

DOI: 10.1016/S2468-2667(26)00141-6