The global, regional, and national burden of cancer, 1990–2023, with forecasts to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023

Luai A. Ahmed Usha Adiga Ibrar Ahmed Karolina Akinosoglou Meriem Abdoun Suneth Buddhika Agampodi Eman Abu-Gharbieh Anisuddin Ahmed Roland Eghoghosoa Akhigbe Marjan Ajami Ahmed Abu-Zaid Victor Adekanmbi Omar Al Omari Samar Abd ElHafeez Lucas Guimarães Abreu Muhammad Sohail Afzal Jonathan M. Kocarnik Auwal Abdullahi Raghu Ram Achar Isaac Yeboah Addo Bilyaminu Abubakar Juan Manuel Acuna Lawan Hassan Adamu Hanadi Al Hamad César Agostinis Sobrinho Habeeb Omoponle Adewuyi Lisa M. Force Williams Agyemang-Duah Lisa C. Adams Yazan Al Thaher Ashraf Nabiel Abdalla Bright Opoku Ahinkorah Natalie Pritchett Nurudeen A. Adegoke Ahmed M. Afifi Fahmi Y. Al-Ashwal Ayman Ahmed Syed Mahfuz Al Hasan Mohammad Al Qadire Danish Ahmad Khurshid Alam Ibukun Modupe Adesiyan Feleke Doyore Agide Armita Abedi Muktar Beshir Ahmed Kamoru Ademola Adedokun Muayyad M. Ahmad Aqeel Ahmad Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani Omar Ali Mohammed Al Zaabi Tauseef Ahmad Ulric Sena Abonie Daba Abdissa Kayleigh Bhangdia Mohammed Altigani Abdalla Sajjad Ahmad Gasha Salih Ahmed Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika Afolabi Louise Penberthy Richard Gyan Aboagye Zufishan Alam Mesfin Abebe Navidha Aggarwal Fatemeh Afrashteh Arman Abdous Arya Afrooghe Prince Owusu Adoma Mohadese Ahmadzade Hana J. Abukhadijah Leticia Akua Adzigbli Alistair Acheson Alemwork Abie Amani Alansari Parsa Abdi Mehrunnisha Sharif Ahmed Amir Mahmoud Ahmadzade Hassan Abolhassani Arash Abdollahi Dolapo Emmanuel Ajala Aminu Kende Abubakar Lee Deitesfeld Meqdad Saleh Ahmed Abdallah H.A. Abd Al Magied Nesredin Ahmed Faisal Ahmad Syed Hani Abidi Syed Anees Ahmed Salahdein Aburuz Nasir Abbas Khurshid Ahmad Wakgari Mosisa Abdisa Maryam Abbasalipour bashash Elham Ahmadi Bhoomadevi A Andrew Crist Miranda L. May Hasan Aalruz Salah Al Awaidy Wael M. Abdel-Rahman Olumide Abiodun

Publication Name: Lancet

Publication Date: 2025-10-11

Volume: 406

Issue: 10512

Page Range: 1565-1586

Description:

Background: Cancer is a leading cause of death globally. Accurate cancer burden information is crucial for policy planning, but many countries do not have up-to-date cancer surveillance data. To inform global cancer-control efforts, we used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023 framework to generate and analyse estimates of cancer burden for 47 cancer types or groupings by age, sex, and 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2023, cancer burden attributable to selected risk factors from 1990 to 2023, and forecasted cancer burden up to 2050. Methods: Cancer estimation in GBD 2023 used data from population-based cancer registration systems, vital registration systems, and verbal autopsies. Cancer mortality was estimated using ensemble models, with incidence informed by mortality estimates and mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Prevalence estimates were generated from modelled survival estimates, then multiplied by disability weights to estimate years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were estimated by multiplying age-specific cancer deaths by the GBD standard life expectancy at the age of death. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were calculated as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. We used the GBD 2023 comparative risk assessment framework to estimate cancer burden attributable to 44 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. To forecast cancer burden from 2024 to 2050, we used the GBD 2023 forecasting framework, which included forecasts of relevant risk factor exposures and used Socio-demographic Index as a covariate for forecasting the proportion of each cancer not affected by these risk factors. Progress towards the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target 3.4 aim to reduce non-communicable disease mortality by a third between 2015 and 2030 was estimated for cancer. Findings: In 2023, excluding non-melanoma skin cancers, there were 18·5 million (95% uncertainty interval 16·4 to 20·7) incident cases of cancer and 10·4 million (9·65 to 10·9) deaths, contributing to 271 million (255 to 285) DALYs globally. Of these, 57·9% (56·1 to 59·8) of incident cases and 65·8% (64·3 to 67·6) of cancer deaths occurred in low-income to upper-middle-income countries based on World Bank income group classifications. Cancer was the second leading cause of deaths globally in 2023 after cardiovascular diseases. There were 4·33 million (3·85 to 4·78) risk-attributable cancer deaths globally in 2023, comprising 41·7% (37·8 to 45·4) of all cancer deaths. Risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 72·3% (57·1 to 86·8) from 1990 to 2023, whereas overall global cancer deaths increased by 74·3% (62·2 to 86·2) over the same period. The reference forecasts (the most likely future) estimate that in 2050 there will be 30·5 million (22·9 to 38·9) cases and 18·6 million (15·6 to 21·5) deaths from cancer globally, 60·7% (41·9 to 80·6) and 74·5% (50·1 to 104·2) increases from 2024, respectively. These forecasted increases in deaths are greater in low-income and middle-income countries (90·6% [61·0 to 127·0]) compared with high-income countries (42·8% [28·3 to 58·6]). Most of these increases are likely due to demographic changes, as age-standardised death rates are forecast to change by –5·6% (–12·8 to 4·6) between 2024 and 2050 globally. Between 2015 and 2030, the probability of dying due to cancer between the ages of 30 years and 70 years was forecasted to have a relative decrease of 6·5% (3·2 to 10·3). Interpretation: Cancer is a major contributor to global disease burden, with increasing numbers of cases and deaths forecasted up to 2050 and a disproportionate growth in burden in countries with scarce resources. The decline in age-standardised mortality rates from cancer is encouraging but insufficient to meet the SDG target set for 2030. Effectively and sustainably addressing cancer burden globally will require comprehensive national and international efforts that consider health systems and context in the development and implementation of cancer-control strategies across the continuum of prevention, diagnosis, and treatment. Funding: Gates Foundation, St Jude Children's Research Hospital, and St Baldrick's Foundation.

Open Access: Yes

DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(25)01635-6

Authors - 100

Luai A. Ahmed

12792329700

Usha Adiga

14057674100

Ibrar Ahmed

15749817700

Karolina Akinosoglou

16318655800

Meriem Abdoun

20336514800

Suneth Buddhika Agampodi

23017863100

Eman Abu-Gharbieh

24586714800

Anisuddin Ahmed

25623145700

Roland Eghoghosoa Akhigbe

26029098700

Marjan Ajami

26038910500

Ahmed Abu-Zaid

45861125100

Victor Adekanmbi

53463192900

Omar Al Omari

54789420600

Samar Abd ElHafeez

55551273300

Lucas Guimarães Abreu

55937631400

Muhammad Sohail Afzal

56009310800

Jonathan M. Kocarnik

56041211800

Auwal Abdullahi

56102934500

Raghu Ram Achar

56203243200

Isaac Yeboah Addo

56305995900

Bilyaminu Abubakar

56389502700

Juan Manuel Acuna

56473433400

Lawan Hassan Adamu

56926568700

Hanadi Al Hamad

56955516200

César Agostinis Sobrinho

56968193400

Habeeb Omoponle Adewuyi

57170898700

Lisa M. Force

57188548035

Williams Agyemang-Duah

57190228903

Lisa C. Adams

57192991712

Yazan Al Thaher

57194165738

Ashraf Nabiel Abdalla

57194191387

Bright Opoku Ahinkorah

57194684030

Natalie Pritchett

57195807365

Nurudeen A. Adegoke

57196007299

Ahmed M. Afifi

57196175428

Fahmi Y. Al-Ashwal

57196371551

Ayman Ahmed

57199492030

Syed Mahfuz Al Hasan

57201069050

Mohammad Al Qadire

57201889307

Danish Ahmad

57202805842

Khurshid Alam

57203681299

Ibukun Modupe Adesiyan

57203869058

Feleke Doyore Agide

57204329765

Armita Abedi

57204607249

Muktar Beshir Ahmed

57207802317

Kamoru Ademola Adedokun

57207983240

Muayyad M. Ahmad

57208845008

Aqeel Ahmad

57210400531

Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani

57211604149

Omar Ali Mohammed Al Zaabi

57211669993

Tauseef Ahmad

57214283386

Ulric Sena Abonie

57214797230

Daba Abdissa

57216254713

Kayleigh Bhangdia

57217027190

Mohammed Altigani Abdalla

57217676700

Sajjad Ahmad

57218961022

Gasha Salih Ahmed

57219224652

Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika Afolabi

57219351723

Louise Penberthy

57219572912

Richard Gyan Aboagye

57221438826

Zufishan Alam

57222957445

Mesfin Abebe

57223854886

Navidha Aggarwal

57224993442

Fatemeh Afrashteh

57254714200

Arman Abdous

57263159900

Arya Afrooghe

57431758400

Prince Owusu Adoma

57777244400

Mohadese Ahmadzade

57831492000

Hana J. Abukhadijah

57865346000

Leticia Akua Adzigbli

57899326600

Alistair Acheson

57912642400

Alemwork Abie

58020591000

Amani Alansari

58044807900

Parsa Abdi

58143779200

Mehrunnisha Sharif Ahmed

58154139200

Amir Mahmoud Ahmadzade

58450881100

Hassan Abolhassani

58597704600

Arash Abdollahi

58736039900

Dolapo Emmanuel Ajala

58746442600

Aminu Kende Abubakar

58880268300

Lee Deitesfeld

58956975900

Meqdad Saleh Ahmed

59039407300

Abdallah H.A. Abd Al Magied

59128864400

Nesredin Ahmed

59400637500

Faisal Ahmad

59452625300

Syed Hani Abidi

59663694600

Syed Anees Ahmed

59706359000

Salahdein Aburuz

59755057900

Nasir Abbas

59847373500

Khurshid Ahmad

59998147800

Wakgari Mosisa Abdisa

59998578600

Maryam Abbasalipour bashash

60132882300

Elham Ahmadi

60132925700

Bhoomadevi A

60132974400

Andrew Crist

60133019100

Miranda L. May

60133061800

Hasan Aalruz

60133061900

Salah Al Awaidy

6508132710

Wael M. Abdel-Rahman

6603240889

Olumide Abiodun

7003859089