The global, regional, and national burden of cancer, 1990–2023, with forecasts to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023

Amani Alansari Ibukun Modupe Adesiyan Mohammed Altigani Abdalla Abdallah H.A. Abd Al Magied Arash Abdollahi Wael M. Abdel-Rahman Ahmed Abu-Zaid Muayyad M. Ahmad Aminu Kende Abubakar Eman Abu-Gharbieh Mohadese Ahmadzade Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika Afolabi Anisuddin Ahmed Fahmi Y. Al-Ashwal Kamoru Ademola Adedokun Nurudeen A. Adegoke Dolapo Emmanuel Ajala Ashraf Nabiel Abdalla Raghu Ram Achar Lisa C. Adams Armita Abedi Mesfin Abebe Usha Adiga Faisal Ahmad Sajjad Ahmad A. Bhoomadevi Aqeel Ahmad Kayleigh Bhangdia Lisa M. Force Hasan Aalruz Williams Agyemang-Duah Miranda L. May Jonathan M. Kocarnik Andrew Crist Feleke Doyore Agide Roland Eghoghosoa Akhigbe Karolina Akinosoglou Omar Al Omari Muhammad Sohail Afzal Danish Ahmad Alemwork Abie Hana J. Abukhadijah Amir Mahmoud Ahmadzade Salah Al Awaidy Nasir Abbas Maryam Abbasalipour bashash Hanadi Al Hamad Syed Mahfuz Al Hasan Samar Abd ElHafeez Navidha Aggarwal Gasha Salih Ahmed Mehrunnisha Sharif Ahmed Meqdad Saleh Ahmed Muktar Beshir Ahmed Nesredin Ahmed Marjan Ajami Syed Anees Ahmed Mohammad Al Qadire Suneth Buddhika Agampodi César Agostinis Sobrinho Ayman Ahmed Khurshid Ahmad Elham Ahmadi Tauseef Ahmad Meriem Abdoun Zufishan Alam Yazan Al Thaher Salahdein Aburuz Daba Abdissa Lucas Guimarães Abreu Lawan Hassan Adamu Bhoomadevi A Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani Bright Opoku Ahinkorah Ahmed M. Afifi Natalie Pritchett Fatemeh Afrashteh Louise Penberthy Alistair Acheson Lee Deitesfeld Bilyaminu Abubakar Juan Manuel Acuna Isaac Yeboah Addo Arman Abdous Auwal Abdullahi Hasan Aalruz Syed Hani Abidi Olumide Abiodun Richard Gyan Aboagye Hassan Abolhassani Ulric Sena Abonie Habeeb Omoponle Adewuyi Wakgari Mosisa Abdisa Parsa Abdi Luai A. Ahmed Prince Owusu Adoma Leticia Akua Adzigbli Victor Adekanmbi Ibrar Ahmed Arya Afrooghe Khurshid Alam Omar Ali Mohammed Al Zaabi

Publication Name: Lancet

Publication Date: 2025-10-11

Volume: 406

Issue: 10512

Page Range: 1565-1586

Description:

Background: Cancer is a leading cause of death globally. Accurate cancer burden information is crucial for policy planning, but many countries do not have up-to-date cancer surveillance data. To inform global cancer-control efforts, we used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023 framework to generate and analyse estimates of cancer burden for 47 cancer types or groupings by age, sex, and 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2023, cancer burden attributable to selected risk factors from 1990 to 2023, and forecasted cancer burden up to 2050. Methods: Cancer estimation in GBD 2023 used data from population-based cancer registration systems, vital registration systems, and verbal autopsies. Cancer mortality was estimated using ensemble models, with incidence informed by mortality estimates and mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Prevalence estimates were generated from modelled survival estimates, then multiplied by disability weights to estimate years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were estimated by multiplying age-specific cancer deaths by the GBD standard life expectancy at the age of death. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were calculated as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. We used the GBD 2023 comparative risk assessment framework to estimate cancer burden attributable to 44 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. To forecast cancer burden from 2024 to 2050, we used the GBD 2023 forecasting framework, which included forecasts of relevant risk factor exposures and used Socio-demographic Index as a covariate for forecasting the proportion of each cancer not affected by these risk factors. Progress towards the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target 3.4 aim to reduce non-communicable disease mortality by a third between 2015 and 2030 was estimated for cancer. Findings: In 2023, excluding non-melanoma skin cancers, there were 18·5 million (95% uncertainty interval 16·4 to 20·7) incident cases of cancer and 10·4 million (9·65 to 10·9) deaths, contributing to 271 million (255 to 285) DALYs globally. Of these, 57·9% (56·1 to 59·8) of incident cases and 65·8% (64·3 to 67·6) of cancer deaths occurred in low-income to upper-middle-income countries based on World Bank income group classifications. Cancer was the second leading cause of deaths globally in 2023 after cardiovascular diseases. There were 4·33 million (3·85 to 4·78) risk-attributable cancer deaths globally in 2023, comprising 41·7% (37·8 to 45·4) of all cancer deaths. Risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 72·3% (57·1 to 86·8) from 1990 to 2023, whereas overall global cancer deaths increased by 74·3% (62·2 to 86·2) over the same period. The reference forecasts (the most likely future) estimate that in 2050 there will be 30·5 million (22·9 to 38·9) cases and 18·6 million (15·6 to 21·5) deaths from cancer globally, 60·7% (41·9 to 80·6) and 74·5% (50·1 to 104·2) increases from 2024, respectively. These forecasted increases in deaths are greater in low-income and middle-income countries (90·6% [61·0 to 127·0]) compared with high-income countries (42·8% [28·3 to 58·6]). Most of these increases are likely due to demographic changes, as age-standardised death rates are forecast to change by –5·6% (–12·8 to 4·6) between 2024 and 2050 globally. Between 2015 and 2030, the probability of dying due to cancer between the ages of 30 years and 70 years was forecasted to have a relative decrease of 6·5% (3·2 to 10·3). Interpretation: Cancer is a major contributor to global disease burden, with increasing numbers of cases and deaths forecasted up to 2050 and a disproportionate growth in burden in countries with scarce resources. The decline in age-standardised mortality rates from cancer is encouraging but insufficient to meet the SDG target set for 2030. Effectively and sustainably addressing cancer burden globally will require comprehensive national and international efforts that consider health systems and context in the development and implementation of cancer-control strategies across the continuum of prevention, diagnosis, and treatment. Funding: Gates Foundation, St Jude Children's Research Hospital, and St Baldrick's Foundation.

Open Access: Yes

DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(25)01635-6

Authors - 102

Amani Alansari

58044807900

Ibukun Modupe Adesiyan

57203869058

Mohammed Altigani Abdalla

57217676700

Abdallah H.A. Abd Al Magied

59128864400

Arash Abdollahi

58736039900

Wael M. Abdel-Rahman

6603240889

Ahmed Abu-Zaid

45861125100

Muayyad M. Ahmad

57208845008

Aminu Kende Abubakar

58880268300

Eman Abu-Gharbieh

24586714800

Mohadese Ahmadzade

57831492000

Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika Afolabi

57219351723

Anisuddin Ahmed

25623145700

Fahmi Y. Al-Ashwal

57196371551

Kamoru Ademola Adedokun

57207983240

Nurudeen A. Adegoke

57196007299

Dolapo Emmanuel Ajala

58746442600

Ashraf Nabiel Abdalla

57194191387

Raghu Ram Achar

56203243200

Lisa C. Adams

57192991712

Armita Abedi

57204607249

Mesfin Abebe

57223854886

Usha Adiga

14057674100

Faisal Ahmad

59452625300

Sajjad Ahmad

57218961022

A. Bhoomadevi

57208576447

Aqeel Ahmad

57210400531

Kayleigh Bhangdia

57217027190

Lisa M. Force

57188548035

Hasan Aalruz

60133061900

Williams Agyemang-Duah

57190228903

Miranda L. May

60133061800

Jonathan M. Kocarnik

56041211800

Andrew Crist

60133019100

Feleke Doyore Agide

57204329765

Roland Eghoghosoa Akhigbe

26029098700

Karolina Akinosoglou

16318655800

Omar Al Omari

54789420600

Muhammad Sohail Afzal

56009310800

Danish Ahmad

57202805842

Alemwork Abie

58020591000

Hana J. Abukhadijah

57865346000

Amir Mahmoud Ahmadzade

58450881100

Salah Al Awaidy

6508132710

Nasir Abbas

59847373500

Maryam Abbasalipour bashash

60132882300

Hanadi Al Hamad

56955516200

Syed Mahfuz Al Hasan

57201069050

Samar Abd ElHafeez

55551273300

Navidha Aggarwal

57224993442

Gasha Salih Ahmed

57219224652

Mehrunnisha Sharif Ahmed

58154139200

Meqdad Saleh Ahmed

59039407300

Muktar Beshir Ahmed

57207802317

Nesredin Ahmed

59400637500

Marjan Ajami

26038910500

Syed Anees Ahmed

59706359000

Mohammad Al Qadire

57201889307

Suneth Buddhika Agampodi

23017863100

César Agostinis Sobrinho

56968193400

Ayman Ahmed

57199492030

Khurshid Ahmad

59998147800

Elham Ahmadi

60132925700

Tauseef Ahmad

57214283386

Meriem Abdoun

20336514800

Zufishan Alam

57222957445

Yazan Al Thaher

57194165738

Salahdein Aburuz

59755057900

Daba Abdissa

57216254713

Lucas Guimarães Abreu

55937631400

Lawan Hassan Adamu

56926568700

Bhoomadevi A

60132974400

Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani

57211604149

Bright Opoku Ahinkorah

57194684030

Ahmed M. Afifi

57196175428

Natalie Pritchett

57195807365

Fatemeh Afrashteh

57254714200

Louise Penberthy

57219572912

Alistair Acheson

57912642400

Lee Deitesfeld

58956975900

Bilyaminu Abubakar

56389502700

Juan Manuel Acuna

56473433400

Isaac Yeboah Addo

56305995900

Arman Abdous

57263159900

Auwal Abdullahi

56102934500

Hasan Aalruz

57216547615

Syed Hani Abidi

59663694600

Olumide Abiodun

7003859089

Richard Gyan Aboagye

57221438826

Hassan Abolhassani

58597704600

Ulric Sena Abonie

57214797230

Habeeb Omoponle Adewuyi

57170898700

Wakgari Mosisa Abdisa

59998578600

Parsa Abdi

58143779200

Luai A. Ahmed

12792329700

Prince Owusu Adoma

57777244400

Leticia Akua Adzigbli

57899326600

Victor Adekanmbi

53463192900

Ibrar Ahmed

15749817700

Arya Afrooghe

57431758400

Khurshid Alam

57203681299

Omar Ali Mohammed Al Zaabi

57211669993