Hasan Aalruz
60133061900
Publications - 1
The global, regional, and national burden of cancer, 1990–2023, with forecasts to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023
Luai A. Ahmed
Usha Adiga
Ibrar Ahmed
Karolina Akinosoglou
Meriem Abdoun
Suneth Buddhika Agampodi
Eman Abu-Gharbieh
Anisuddin Ahmed
Roland Eghoghosoa Akhigbe
Marjan Ajami
Ahmed Abu-Zaid
Victor Adekanmbi
Omar Al Omari
Samar Abd ElHafeez
Lucas Guimarães Abreu
Muhammad Sohail Afzal
Jonathan M. Kocarnik
Auwal Abdullahi
Raghu Ram Achar
Isaac Yeboah Addo
Bilyaminu Abubakar
Juan Manuel Acuna
Lawan Hassan Adamu
Hanadi Al Hamad
César Agostinis Sobrinho
Habeeb Omoponle Adewuyi
Lisa M. Force
Williams Agyemang-Duah
Lisa C. Adams
Yazan Al Thaher
Ashraf Nabiel Abdalla
Bright Opoku Ahinkorah
Natalie Pritchett
Nurudeen A. Adegoke
Ahmed M. Afifi
Fahmi Y. Al-Ashwal
Ayman Ahmed
Syed Mahfuz Al Hasan
Mohammad Al Qadire
Danish Ahmad
Khurshid Alam
Ibukun Modupe Adesiyan
Feleke Doyore Agide
Armita Abedi
Muktar Beshir Ahmed
Kamoru Ademola Adedokun
Muayyad M. Ahmad
Aqeel Ahmad
Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani
Omar Ali Mohammed Al Zaabi
Tauseef Ahmad
Ulric Sena Abonie
Daba Abdissa
Kayleigh Bhangdia
Mohammed Altigani Abdalla
Sajjad Ahmad
Gasha Salih Ahmed
Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika Afolabi
Louise Penberthy
Richard Gyan Aboagye
Zufishan Alam
Mesfin Abebe
Navidha Aggarwal
Fatemeh Afrashteh
Arman Abdous
Arya Afrooghe
Prince Owusu Adoma
Mohadese Ahmadzade
Hana J. Abukhadijah
Leticia Akua Adzigbli
Alistair Acheson
Alemwork Abie
Amani Alansari
Parsa Abdi
Mehrunnisha Sharif Ahmed
Amir Mahmoud Ahmadzade
Hassan Abolhassani
Arash Abdollahi
Dolapo Emmanuel Ajala
Aminu Kende Abubakar
Lee Deitesfeld
Meqdad Saleh Ahmed
Abdallah H.A. Abd Al Magied
Nesredin Ahmed
Faisal Ahmad
Syed Hani Abidi
Syed Anees Ahmed
Salahdein Aburuz
Nasir Abbas
Khurshid Ahmad
Wakgari Mosisa Abdisa
Maryam Abbasalipour bashash
Elham Ahmadi
Bhoomadevi A
Andrew Crist
Miranda L. May
Hasan Aalruz
Salah Al Awaidy
Wael M. Abdel-Rahman
Olumide Abiodun
Publication Name: Lancet
Publication Date: 2025-10-11
Volume: 406
Issue: 10512
Page Range: 1565-1586
Description:
Background: Cancer is a leading cause of death globally. Accurate cancer burden information is crucial for policy planning, but many countries do not have up-to-date cancer surveillance data. To inform global cancer-control efforts, we used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023 framework to generate and analyse estimates of cancer burden for 47 cancer types or groupings by age, sex, and 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2023, cancer burden attributable to selected risk factors from 1990 to 2023, and forecasted cancer burden up to 2050. Methods: Cancer estimation in GBD 2023 used data from population-based cancer registration systems, vital registration systems, and verbal autopsies. Cancer mortality was estimated using ensemble models, with incidence informed by mortality estimates and mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Prevalence estimates were generated from modelled survival estimates, then multiplied by disability weights to estimate years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were estimated by multiplying age-specific cancer deaths by the GBD standard life expectancy at the age of death. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were calculated as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. We used the GBD 2023 comparative risk assessment framework to estimate cancer burden attributable to 44 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. To forecast cancer burden from 2024 to 2050, we used the GBD 2023 forecasting framework, which included forecasts of relevant risk factor exposures and used Socio-demographic Index as a covariate for forecasting the proportion of each cancer not affected by these risk factors. Progress towards the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target 3.4 aim to reduce non-communicable disease mortality by a third between 2015 and 2030 was estimated for cancer. Findings: In 2023, excluding non-melanoma skin cancers, there were 18·5 million (95% uncertainty interval 16·4 to 20·7) incident cases of cancer and 10·4 million (9·65 to 10·9) deaths, contributing to 271 million (255 to 285) DALYs globally. Of these, 57·9% (56·1 to 59·8) of incident cases and 65·8% (64·3 to 67·6) of cancer deaths occurred in low-income to upper-middle-income countries based on World Bank income group classifications. Cancer was the second leading cause of deaths globally in 2023 after cardiovascular diseases. There were 4·33 million (3·85 to 4·78) risk-attributable cancer deaths globally in 2023, comprising 41·7% (37·8 to 45·4) of all cancer deaths. Risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 72·3% (57·1 to 86·8) from 1990 to 2023, whereas overall global cancer deaths increased by 74·3% (62·2 to 86·2) over the same period. The reference forecasts (the most likely future) estimate that in 2050 there will be 30·5 million (22·9 to 38·9) cases and 18·6 million (15·6 to 21·5) deaths from cancer globally, 60·7% (41·9 to 80·6) and 74·5% (50·1 to 104·2) increases from 2024, respectively. These forecasted increases in deaths are greater in low-income and middle-income countries (90·6% [61·0 to 127·0]) compared with high-income countries (42·8% [28·3 to 58·6]). Most of these increases are likely due to demographic changes, as age-standardised death rates are forecast to change by –5·6% (–12·8 to 4·6) between 2024 and 2050 globally. Between 2015 and 2030, the probability of dying due to cancer between the ages of 30 years and 70 years was forecasted to have a relative decrease of 6·5% (3·2 to 10·3). Interpretation: Cancer is a major contributor to global disease burden, with increasing numbers of cases and deaths forecasted up to 2050 and a disproportionate growth in burden in countries with scarce resources. The decline in age-standardised mortality rates from cancer is encouraging but insufficient to meet the SDG target set for 2030. Effectively and sustainably addressing cancer burden globally will require comprehensive national and international efforts that consider health systems and context in the development and implementation of cancer-control strategies across the continuum of prevention, diagnosis, and treatment. Funding: Gates Foundation, St Jude Children's Research Hospital, and St Baldrick's Foundation.
Open Access: Yes