Hasan Aalruz
60133061900
Publications - 1
The global, regional, and national burden of cancer, 1990–2023, with forecasts to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023
Amani Alansari
Ibukun Modupe Adesiyan
Mohammed Altigani Abdalla
Abdallah H.A. Abd Al Magied
Arash Abdollahi
Wael M. Abdel-Rahman
Ahmed Abu-Zaid
Muayyad M. Ahmad
Aminu Kende Abubakar
Eman Abu-Gharbieh
Mohadese Ahmadzade
Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika Afolabi
Anisuddin Ahmed
Fahmi Y. Al-Ashwal
Kamoru Ademola Adedokun
Nurudeen A. Adegoke
Dolapo Emmanuel Ajala
Ashraf Nabiel Abdalla
Raghu Ram Achar
Lisa C. Adams
Armita Abedi
Mesfin Abebe
Usha Adiga
Faisal Ahmad
Sajjad Ahmad
A. Bhoomadevi
Aqeel Ahmad
Kayleigh Bhangdia
Lisa M. Force
Hasan Aalruz
Williams Agyemang-Duah
Miranda L. May
Jonathan M. Kocarnik
Andrew Crist
Feleke Doyore Agide
Roland Eghoghosoa Akhigbe
Karolina Akinosoglou
Omar Al Omari
Muhammad Sohail Afzal
Danish Ahmad
Alemwork Abie
Hana J. Abukhadijah
Amir Mahmoud Ahmadzade
Salah Al Awaidy
Nasir Abbas
Maryam Abbasalipour bashash
Hanadi Al Hamad
Syed Mahfuz Al Hasan
Samar Abd ElHafeez
Navidha Aggarwal
Gasha Salih Ahmed
Mehrunnisha Sharif Ahmed
Meqdad Saleh Ahmed
Muktar Beshir Ahmed
Nesredin Ahmed
Marjan Ajami
Syed Anees Ahmed
Mohammad Al Qadire
Suneth Buddhika Agampodi
César Agostinis Sobrinho
Ayman Ahmed
Khurshid Ahmad
Elham Ahmadi
Tauseef Ahmad
Meriem Abdoun
Zufishan Alam
Yazan Al Thaher
Salahdein Aburuz
Daba Abdissa
Lucas Guimarães Abreu
Lawan Hassan Adamu
Bhoomadevi A
Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani
Bright Opoku Ahinkorah
Ahmed M. Afifi
Natalie Pritchett
Fatemeh Afrashteh
Louise Penberthy
Alistair Acheson
Lee Deitesfeld
Bilyaminu Abubakar
Juan Manuel Acuna
Isaac Yeboah Addo
Arman Abdous
Auwal Abdullahi
Hasan Aalruz
Syed Hani Abidi
Olumide Abiodun
Richard Gyan Aboagye
Hassan Abolhassani
Ulric Sena Abonie
Habeeb Omoponle Adewuyi
Wakgari Mosisa Abdisa
Parsa Abdi
Luai A. Ahmed
Prince Owusu Adoma
Leticia Akua Adzigbli
Victor Adekanmbi
Ibrar Ahmed
Arya Afrooghe
Khurshid Alam
Omar Ali Mohammed Al Zaabi
Publication Name: Lancet
Publication Date: 2025-10-11
Volume: 406
Issue: 10512
Page Range: 1565-1586
Description:
Background: Cancer is a leading cause of death globally. Accurate cancer burden information is crucial for policy planning, but many countries do not have up-to-date cancer surveillance data. To inform global cancer-control efforts, we used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023 framework to generate and analyse estimates of cancer burden for 47 cancer types or groupings by age, sex, and 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2023, cancer burden attributable to selected risk factors from 1990 to 2023, and forecasted cancer burden up to 2050. Methods: Cancer estimation in GBD 2023 used data from population-based cancer registration systems, vital registration systems, and verbal autopsies. Cancer mortality was estimated using ensemble models, with incidence informed by mortality estimates and mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Prevalence estimates were generated from modelled survival estimates, then multiplied by disability weights to estimate years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were estimated by multiplying age-specific cancer deaths by the GBD standard life expectancy at the age of death. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were calculated as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. We used the GBD 2023 comparative risk assessment framework to estimate cancer burden attributable to 44 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. To forecast cancer burden from 2024 to 2050, we used the GBD 2023 forecasting framework, which included forecasts of relevant risk factor exposures and used Socio-demographic Index as a covariate for forecasting the proportion of each cancer not affected by these risk factors. Progress towards the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target 3.4 aim to reduce non-communicable disease mortality by a third between 2015 and 2030 was estimated for cancer. Findings: In 2023, excluding non-melanoma skin cancers, there were 18·5 million (95% uncertainty interval 16·4 to 20·7) incident cases of cancer and 10·4 million (9·65 to 10·9) deaths, contributing to 271 million (255 to 285) DALYs globally. Of these, 57·9% (56·1 to 59·8) of incident cases and 65·8% (64·3 to 67·6) of cancer deaths occurred in low-income to upper-middle-income countries based on World Bank income group classifications. Cancer was the second leading cause of deaths globally in 2023 after cardiovascular diseases. There were 4·33 million (3·85 to 4·78) risk-attributable cancer deaths globally in 2023, comprising 41·7% (37·8 to 45·4) of all cancer deaths. Risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 72·3% (57·1 to 86·8) from 1990 to 2023, whereas overall global cancer deaths increased by 74·3% (62·2 to 86·2) over the same period. The reference forecasts (the most likely future) estimate that in 2050 there will be 30·5 million (22·9 to 38·9) cases and 18·6 million (15·6 to 21·5) deaths from cancer globally, 60·7% (41·9 to 80·6) and 74·5% (50·1 to 104·2) increases from 2024, respectively. These forecasted increases in deaths are greater in low-income and middle-income countries (90·6% [61·0 to 127·0]) compared with high-income countries (42·8% [28·3 to 58·6]). Most of these increases are likely due to demographic changes, as age-standardised death rates are forecast to change by –5·6% (–12·8 to 4·6) between 2024 and 2050 globally. Between 2015 and 2030, the probability of dying due to cancer between the ages of 30 years and 70 years was forecasted to have a relative decrease of 6·5% (3·2 to 10·3). Interpretation: Cancer is a major contributor to global disease burden, with increasing numbers of cases and deaths forecasted up to 2050 and a disproportionate growth in burden in countries with scarce resources. The decline in age-standardised mortality rates from cancer is encouraging but insufficient to meet the SDG target set for 2030. Effectively and sustainably addressing cancer burden globally will require comprehensive national and international efforts that consider health systems and context in the development and implementation of cancer-control strategies across the continuum of prevention, diagnosis, and treatment. Funding: Gates Foundation, St Jude Children's Research Hospital, and St Baldrick's Foundation.
Open Access: Yes