Iman M. Talaat

7801465176

Publications - 2

Global, regional and national burden of ischemic heart disease attributable to suboptimal diet, 1990–2023: a Global Burden of Disease study

Marcin W. Wojewodzic Dinesh Upadhya Ahmed Bilal Waqar Kazumasa Yamagishi Zhiyong Zou Y. Waheed Suowen Xu Abdul Rohim Tualeka Dakshitha Praneeth Wickramasinghe Mircea Tampa Nuwan Darshana Wickramasinghe Rasiah Thayakaran Felicia Wu Rajshree Thapa Pugazhenthan Thangaraju Dehui Yin Isidora S. Vujcic Galal Yahya Mohamad Hani Temsah Yunquan Zhang Shoban Babu Varthya Muhammad Umair Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone Domenico Trico Casper J. P Zhang Madhur Verma Aurora Zanghì Xiao Dong Zhou Dong Keon Yon Bin Zhu Nguyen Tran Minh Duc Habib Yaribeygi Mohammed Zawiah Jibrin Sammani Usman Tommi Juhani Vasankari Loc Tri Vu Peter Willeit Dominique Vervoort Pengpeng Ye Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan Dipan Uppal Min Seo Kim Ramna Thakur Anggi Lukman Wicaksana Naohiro Yonemoto Tewodros Eshete Wonde Stefanos Tyrovolas Chuanhua Yu Yuichi Yasufuku Zenghong Wu Andrea Werdecker Khaled Trabelsi Mary Njeri Wanjau Jacques Lukenze Tamuzi Shuduo Zhou Nguyen Tran Minh Duc Aniefiok John Udoakang Haosu Tang Sojit Tomo Lakshmi Thangavelu Ghazal Zoghi Masayuki Teramoto Toyiba Hiyaru Wassie Georgios Ioannis Verras Joe Varghese Subah Abderehim Yesuf Nathan Y. Tat Anthony Zhong Zhiqiang Zhang Abzal Zhumagaliuly Thang Huu Tran Manish Vinayak Thien Tan Tri Tai Truyen Asokan Govindaraj Vaithinathan Sa’ed H. Zyoud Magdalena Zielińska Asokan Govindaraj Vaithinathan Krishna Tiwari Jansje Henny Vera Ticoalu Nghia Minh Tran Munkhtuya Tumurkhuu Quynh Thuy Huong Tran Jef Van den Eynde Yanzhong Wang Xiaoyue Xu Mohammed Y. Youssef Wanqing Xie Xingxin Wang Hanqing Zhao Yuichiro Yano Yihun Miskir Wubie Claire Chenwen Zhong Salih M.Mustafa Salih Zebari Sa’ed H. Zyoud Yuichi Yasufuku Lakshmi Thangavelu Tewodros Eshete Wonde Rekha Thapar Xing Wang Casper J. P Zhang Liqun Zhang Mohammed G. M Zeariya Era Upadhyay Ali H. Mokdad Marcello Tonelli Iman M. Talaat Mathilde Touvier

Publication Name: Nature Medicine

Publication Date: 2026-04-01

Volume: 32

Issue: 4

Page Range: 1454-1478

Description:

Ischemic heart disease (IHD) remains a leading cause of death worldwide, with dietary risks being its most significant modifiable factor. Here, using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study 2023, we estimated the mortality and disability-adjusted life years from diet-related IHD across 204 countries. In 2023, a suboptimal diet was responsible for 4.06 million (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 0.74–6.22) IHD deaths and 96.84 million (18.82–142.52) IHD disability-adjusted life years. The global age-standardized death rate of IHD attributable to suboptimal diet decreased by 43.92% (95% UI 34.44–53.23) per 100,000 population from 1990 to 2023. Among dietary factors, low intake of nuts and seeds (9.87, 95% UI 2.84–17.12 deaths per 100,000 population), low whole grains (9.22, 4.73–13.67), low fruits (7.25, 1.54–13.34) and high sodium (7.15, 0.92–17.97) were primary contributors to IHD deaths. The burden was particularly pronounced in low- and middle-sociodemographic index countries. By disentangling dietary risk factors, we identified the portion of IHD burden directly modifiable through food interventions.

Open Access: Yes

DOI: 10.1038/s41591-026-04250-8

Global, regional, and national trends in routine childhood vaccination coverage from 1980 to 2023 with forecasts to 2030: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023

Catherine Bisignano Ashley A. Harris Amanda E. Smith Paulina A. Lindstedt Simeon Okechukwu Ajakwe Olivia D. Nesbit Taylor Noyes Noga Shalev Latera Tesfaye Olana Catherine M. Antony Nancy Fullman Sharareh Eskandarieh Mushood Ahmed Naveed Ahmed Rana Kamal Abu Farha Kamoru Ademola Adedokun Nurudeen A. Adegoke Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika Afolabi Giuseppina Affinito Dolapo Emmanuel Ajala Eman Abu-Gharbieh Reed J.D. Sorensen Chun Wei Yuan Stein Emil Vollset Stephen S. Lim Jonathan F. Mosser Andy Stergachis Farbod Khosravi Sonali Kochhar Armita Abedi Usha Adiga Mitra Abbasifard Mohammad Amin Aalipour Faezeh Abbaspour Tomislav Mestrovic Dariush Abtahi Ripon Kumar Adhikary Mohd Adnan Aqeel Ahmad Simon I. Hay Abdollah Jafarzadeh Williams Agyemang-Duah Hana J. Abukhadijah Danish Ahmad Amin Sharifan Rotimi Felix Afolabi Saira Afzal Emad M. Abdallah Samar Abd Elhafeez Meqdad Saleh Ahmed Muktar Beshir Ahmed Syed Anees Ahmed Suneth Buddhika Agampodi Khurshid Ahmad Tauseef Ahmad Sepehr Aghajanian Ayman Ahmed Ramy Mohamed Ghazy Meriem Abdoun Salahdein Aburuz Lucas Guimarães Abreu Alireza Shakeri Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani Emily Haeuser Sam Byrne Jason Nguyen Catalina Raggi Susan A. McLaughlin Hedayat Abbastabar Rana Kamal Abu Farha Sherief Abd-Elsalam Dmitry Abramov Adam Abdullahi Faezeh Abbaspour Reda Abdel-Hameed Samar Abd ElHafeez Atef Abdelkader Deldar Morad Abdulah Haroon Ahmed Lisa C. Adams Toufik Abdul-Rahman Constanza Elizabeth Aguilera Arriagada Mahsa Ahadi Rabbiya Ahmad Shoaib Ahmad Asrat Agalu Abejew Abdu A. Adamu Juliana Bunmi Adetunji Kulmira Abdykerimova Rahim Abo Kasem Nagah M. Abourashed Mohamed Abouzid Roberto Ariel Abeldaño Zuñiga Juan Manuel Acuna Anirudh Balakrishna Acharya Meshack Achore Ousman Adal Habeeb Abiodun Afolabi Hasan Aalruz Arman Abdous Auwal Abdullahi Bilyaminu Abubakar David Adedia Syed Hani Abidi Olumide Abiodun Hassan Abolhassani Richard Gyan Aboagye Ulric Sena Abonie Abdullahi Tunde Aborode Wakgari Mosisa Abdisa Oyelola A. Adegboye Mohammad Mahdi Bastan Dhiraj Motilal Agarwal Tajudeen Adesanmi Adebisi Oluwatobi E. Adegbile Olumide Thomas Adeleke Mache Tsadik Adhana Molalegne Bitew Feven Sahle Gebre Leticia Akua Adzigbli Alireza Mirkheshti Sohrab Salimi Seyed Mohammad Seyed Alshohadaei Hafsa Zia Gizachew Taddesse Akalu Jiawei He Prince Owusu Adoma Dorsa Salabat Mohamed Jalloh Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar Sina Shool Melika Jameie Jafar Karami Farzad Kompani Mohammad Ali Mansournia Abdolreza Mohammadi Amin Mohsenzadeh Aleksandr Y. Aravkin Omid Dadras Iman M. Talaat Ali H. Mokdad Xiaochen Dai Lalit Dandona Rakhi Dandona Sara Bagheri Fereshteh Baghizadeh Mahdis Bayat Minoo Heidari Almasi Ali Asghar Kolahi Ali Nikoobar Mohammad Mahdi Rashidi Firoozeh Madadi Mehdi Safari Mastooreh Sagharichi Maryam Shayan Georgia Smith Samuel James Herold Annie Haakenstad Christopher J.L. Murray Zahra Siavashpour Mohsen Rezaeian Shakiba Ghasemi Assl Atakan Orscelik Yigit Can Senol Michael Zastrozhin Hannah Elizabeth Robinson-Oden Amin Azizan Nazila Rezaei Pegah Salimi Pormehr Amin Sedigh Farshad Shahkarami Kazem Ghaffari Ghazal Arjmand Mahsa Asadi Anar Rasoul Ebrahimi Seyed Ataollah Madinezad Behnaz Niroomand Seyed Kiarash Sadat Rafiei Antonio Olivas-Martinez

Publication Name: Lancet

Publication Date: 2025-07-19

Volume: 406

Issue: 10500

Page Range: 235-260

Description:

Background: Since its inception in 1974, the Essential Programme on Immunization (EPI) has achieved remarkable success, averting the deaths of an estimated 154 million children worldwide through routine childhood vaccination. However, more recent decades have seen persistent coverage inequities and stagnating progress, which have been further amplified by the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2019, WHO set ambitious goals for improving vaccine coverage globally through the Immunization Agenda 2030 (IA2030). Now halfway through the decade, understanding past and recent coverage trends can help inform and reorient strategies for approaching these aims in the next 5 years. Methods: Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2023, this study provides updated global, regional, and national estimates of routine childhood vaccine coverage from 1980 to 2023 for 204 countries and territories for 11 vaccine-dose combinations recommended by WHO for all children globally. Employing advanced modelling techniques, this analysis accounts for data biases and heterogeneity and integrates new methodologies to model vaccine scale-up and COVID-19 pandemic-related disruptions. To contextualise historic coverage trends and gains still needed to achieve the IA2030 coverage targets, we supplement these results with several secondary analyses: (1) we assess the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on vaccine coverage; (2) we forecast coverage of select life-course vaccines up to 2030; and (3) we analyse progress needed to reduce the number of zero-dose children by half between 2023 and 2030. Findings: Overall, global coverage for the original EPI vaccines against diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis (first dose [DTP1] and third dose [DTP3]), measles (MCV1), polio (Pol3), and tuberculosis (BCG) nearly doubled from 1980 to 2023. However, this long-term trend masks recent challenges. Coverage gains slowed between 2010 and 2019 in many countries and territories, including declines in 21 of 36 high-income countries and territories for at least one of these vaccine doses (excluding BCG, which has been removed from routine immunisation schedules in some countries and territories). The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated these challenges, with global rates for these vaccines declining sharply since 2020, and still not returning to pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels as of 2023. Coverage for newer vaccines developed and introduced in more recent years, such as immunisations against pneumococcal disease (PCV3) and rotavirus (complete series; RotaC) and a second dose of the measles vaccine (MCV2), saw continued increases globally during the COVID-19 pandemic due to ongoing introductions and scale-ups, but at slower rates than expected in the absence of the pandemic. Forecasts to 2030 for DTP3, PCV3, and MCV2 suggest that only DTP3 would reach the IA2030 target of 90% global coverage, and only under an optimistic scenario. The number of zero-dose children, proxied as children younger than 1 year who do not receive DTP1, decreased by 74·9% (95% uncertainty interval 72·1–77·3) globally between 1980 and 2019, with most of those declines reached during the 1980s and the 2000s. After 2019, counts of zero-dose children rose to a COVID 19-era peak of 18·6 million (17·6–20·0) in 2021. Most zero-dose children remain concentrated in conflict-affected regions and those with various constraints on resources available to put towards vaccination services, particularly sub-Saharan Africa. As of 2023, more than 50% of the 15·7 million (14·6–17·0) global zero-dose children resided in just eight countries (Nigeria, India, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Somalia, Sudan, Indonesia, and Brazil), emphasising persistent inequities. Interpretation: Our estimates of current vaccine coverage and forecasts to 2030 suggest that achieving IA2030 targets, such as halving zero-dose children compared with 2019 levels and reaching 90% global coverage for life-course vaccines DTP3, PCV3, and MCV2, will require accelerated progress. Substantial increases in coverage are necessary in many countries and territories, with those in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia facing the greatest challenges. Recent declines will need to be reversed to restore previous coverage levels in Latin America and the Caribbean, especially for DTP1, DTP3, and Pol3. These findings underscore the crucial need for targeted, equitable immunisation strategies. Strengthening primary health-care systems, addressing vaccine misinformation and hesitancy, and adapting to local contexts are essential to advancing coverage. COVID-19 pandemic recovery efforts, such as WHO's Big Catch-Up, as well as efforts to bolster routine services must prioritise reaching marginalised populations and target subnational geographies to regain lost ground and achieve global immunisation goals. Funding: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance.

Open Access: Yes

DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(25)01037-2