Burden of 375 diseases and injuries, risk-attributable burden of 88 risk factors, and healthy life expectancy in 204 countries and territories, including 660 subnational locations, 1990–2023: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023

Niveen M.E. Abu-Rmeileh Jeza Muhamad Abdul Aziz Shehab Uddin Al Abid Rana Kamal Abu Farha Cristiana Abbafati Barkhad Aden Abdeeq Nadin M.I. Abdel Razeq Mohammed Altigani Abdalla Reda Abdel-Hameed Wael M. Abdel-Rahman Ahmed Abdelrahman Abdelgalil Michael Abdelmasseh Aminu Kende Abubakar Eman Abu-Gharbieh Isaac Ayodeji Adesina Kamoru Ademola Adedokun Nurudeen A. Adegoke Ashraf Nabiel Abdalla Habtamu Abebe Getahun Raghu Ram Achar Lisa C. Adams Armita Abedi Usha Adiga Mitra Abbasifard A. Bhoomadevi Mohammad Amin Aalipour Hazim S. Ababneh Ukachukwu O. Abaraogu Dariush Abtahi Ripon Kumar Adhikary Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader Mohd Adnan Simon I. Hay Kanyin Liane Ong Damian F. Santomauro Biruk Beletew Abate Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari Sepideh Abdi Mohammad Abdollahi E. S. Abhilash Hasan Aalruz Roberto Ariel Abeldaño Zuñiga Alemwork Abie Hana J. Abukhadijah Nasir Abbas Ilana N. Ackerman Mesafint Molla Adane Zenaw Debasu Addisu Rufus Adesoji Adedoyin Emad M. Abdallah Samar Abd ElHafeez Olorunsola Israel Adeyomoye Meriem Abdoun Salahdein Aburuz Mahmoud Abdelnabi Lucas Guimarães Abreu Apurba Acharya Lawan Hassan Adamu Oluwafemi Atanda Adeagbo Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani Sherief Abd-Elsalam Adam Abdullahi Kulmira Abdykerimova Deldar Morad Abdulah Toufik Abdul-Rahman Asrat Agalu Abejew Dmitry Abramov Fuad Hamdi A. Abuadas Bilyaminu Abubakar Sawsan Abuhammad Ousman Adal Aidin Abedi Olugbenga Olusola Abiodun Shady Abohashem Nagah M. Abourashed Mohamed Abouzid David Adedia Oyelola A. Adegboye Roberto Ariel Abeldaño Zuñiga Anirudh Balakrishna Acharya Juan Manuel Acuna Isaac Yeboah Addo Arman Abdous Auwal Abdullahi Hasan Aalruz Kishor Adhikari Syed Hani Abidi Olumide Abiodun Richard Gyan Aboagye Hassan Abolhassani Ulric Sena Abonie Habeeb Omoponle Adewuyi Prince Owusu Adoma Leticia Akua Adzigbli Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji Ahmad Y. Abuhelwa Dina Abushanab Tajudeen Adesanmi Adebisi Oluwatobi E. Adegbile Olumide Thomas Adeleke Miracle Ayomikun Adesina Temitayo Esther Adeyeoluwa Nasir Abbas Salahdein Aburuz Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader

Publication Name: Lancet

Publication Date: 2025-10-18

Volume: 406

Issue: 10513

Page Range: 1873-1922

Description:

Background For more than three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has provided a framework to quantify health loss due to diseases, injuries, and associated risk factors. This paper presents GBD 2023 findings on disease and injury burden and risk-attributable health loss, offering a global audit of the state of world health to inform public health priorities. This work captures the evolving landscape of health metrics across age groups, sexes, and locations, while reflecting on the remaining post-COVID-19 challenges to achieving our collective global health ambitions. Methods The GBD 2023 combined analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 375 diseases and injuries, and risk-attributable burden associated with 88 modifiable risk factors. Of the more than 310 000 total data sources used for all GBD 2023 (about 30% of which were new to this estimation round), more than 120 000 sources were used for estimation of disease and injury burden and 59 000 for risk factor estimation, and included vital registration systems, surveys, disease registries, and published scientific literature. Data were analysed using previously established modelling approaches, such as disease modelling meta-regression version 2.1 (DisMod-MR 2.1) and comparative risk assessment methods. Diseases and injuries were categorised into four levels on the basis of the established GBD cause hierarchy, as were risk factors using the GBD risk hierarchy. Estimates stratified by age, sex, location, and year from 1990 to 2023 were focused on disease-specific time trends over the 2010–23 period and presented as counts (to three significant figures) and age-standardised rates per 100 000 person-years (to one decimal place). For each measure, 95% uncertainty intervals [UIs] were calculated with the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile ordered values from a 250-draw distribution. Findings Total numbers of global DALYs grew 6·1% (95% UI 4·0–8·1), from 2·64 billion (2·46–2·86) in 2010 to 2·80 billion (2·57–3·08) in 2023, but age-standardised DALY rates, which account for population growth and ageing, decreased by 12·6% (11·0–14·1), revealing large long-term health improvements. Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) contributed 1·45 billion (1·31–1·61) global DALYs in 2010, increasing to 1·80 billion (1·63–2·03) in 2023, alongside a concurrent 4·1% (1·9–6·3) reduction in age-standardised rates. Based on DALY counts, the leading level 3 NCDs in 2023 were ischaemic heart disease (193 million [176–209] DALYs), stroke (157 million [141–172]), and diabetes (90·2 million [75·2–107]), with the largest increases in age-standardised rates since 2010 occurring for anxiety disorders (62·8% [34·0–107·5]), depressive disorders (26·3% [11·6–42·9]), and diabetes (14·9% [7·5–25·6]). Remarkable health gains were made for communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases, with DALYs falling from 874 million (837–917) in 2010 to 681 million (642–736) in 2023, and a 25·8% (22·6–28·7) reduction in age-standardised DALY rates. During the COVID-19 pandemic, DALYs due to CMNN diseases rose but returned to pre-pandemic levels by 2023. From 2010 to 2023, decreases in age-standardised rates for CMNN diseases were led by rate decreases of 49·1% (32·7–61·0) for diarrhoeal diseases, 42·9% (38·0–48·0) for HIV/AIDS, and 42·2% (23·6–56·6) for tuberculosis. Neonatal disorders and lower respiratory infections remained the leading level 3 CMNN causes globally in 2023, although both showed notable rate decreases from 2010, declining by 16·5% (10·6–22·0) and 24·8% (7·4–36·7), respectively. Injury-related age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 15·6% (10·7–19·8) over the same period. Differences in burden due to NCDs, CMNN diseases, and injuries persisted across age, sex, time, and location. Based on our risk analysis, nearly 50% (1·27 billion [1·18–1·38]) of the roughly 2·80 billion total global DALYs in 2023 were attributable to the 88 risk factors analysed in GBD. Globally, the five level 3 risk factors contributing the highest proportion of risk-attributable DALYs were high systolic blood pressure (SBP), particulate matter pollution, high fasting plasma glucose (FPG), smoking, and low birthweight and short gestation—with high SBP accounting for 8·4% (6·9–10·0) of total DALYs. Of the three overarching level 1 GBD risk factor categories—behavioural, metabolic, and environmental and occupational—risk-attributable DALYs rose between 2010 and 2023 only for metabolic risks, increasing by 30·7% (24·8–37·3); however, age-standardised DALY rates attributable to metabolic risks decreased by 6·7% (2·0–11·0) over the same period. For all but three of the 25 leading level 3 risk factors, age-standardised rates dropped between 2010 and 2023—eg, declining by 54·4% (38·7–65·3) for unsafe sanitation, 50·5% (33·3–63·1) for unsafe water source, and 45·2% (25·6–72·0) for no access to handwashing facility, and by 44·9% (37·3–53·5) for child growth failure. The three leading level 3 risk factors for which age-standardised attributable DALY rates rose were high BMI (10·5% [0·1 to 20·9]), drug use (8·4% [2·6 to 15·3]), and high FPG (6·2% [–2·7 to 15·6]; non-significant). Interpretation Our findings underscore the complex and dynamic nature of global health challenges. Since 2010, there have been large decreases in burden due to CMNN diseases and many environmental and behavioural risk factors, juxtaposed with sizeable increases in DALYs attributable to metabolic risk factors and NCDs in growing and ageing populations. This long-observed consequence of the global epidemiological transition was only temporarily interrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic. The substantially decreasing CMNN disease burden, despite the 2008 global financial crisis and pandemic-related disruptions, is one of the greatest collective public health successes known. However, these achievements are at risk of being reversed due to major cuts to development assistance for health globally, the effects of which will hit low-income countries with high burden the hardest. Without sustained investment in evidence-based interventions and policies, progress could stall or reverse, leading to widespread human costs and geopolitical instability. Moreover, the rising NCD burden necessitates intensified efforts to mitigate exposure to leading risk factors—eg, air pollution, smoking, and metabolic risks, such as high SBP, BMI, and FPG—including policies that promote food security, healthier diets, physical activity, and equitable and expanded access to potential treatments, such as GLP-1 receptor agonists. Decisive, coordinated action is needed to address long-standing yet growing health challenges, including depressive and anxiety disorders. Yet this can be only part of the solution. Our response to the NCD syndemic—the complex interaction of multiple health risks, social determinants, and systemic challenges—will define the future landscape of global health. To ensure human wellbeing, economic stability, and social equity, global action to sustain and advance health gains must prioritise reducing disparities by addressing socioeconomic and demographic determinants, ensuring equitable health-care access, tackling malnutrition, strengthening health systems, and improving vaccination coverage. We live in times of great opportunity. Funding Gates Foundation and Bloomberg Philanthropies.

Open Access: Yes

DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(25)01637-X

Authors - 105

Niveen M.E. Abu-Rmeileh

57216675148

Jeza Muhamad Abdul Aziz

55670686800

Shehab Uddin Al Abid

58984765000

Rana Kamal Abu Farha

56283149600

Cristiana Abbafati

54917122400

Barkhad Aden Abdeeq

58871112900

Nadin M.I. Abdel Razeq

57188590773

Mohammed Altigani Abdalla

57217676700

Reda Abdel-Hameed

54883057400

Wael M. Abdel-Rahman

6603240889

Ahmed Abdelrahman Abdelgalil

60174812100

Michael Abdelmasseh

57356690000

Aminu Kende Abubakar

58880268300

Eman Abu-Gharbieh

24586714800

Isaac Ayodeji Adesina

57215413364

Kamoru Ademola Adedokun

57207983240

Nurudeen A. Adegoke

57196007299

Ashraf Nabiel Abdalla

57194191387

Habtamu Abebe Getahun

59135717500

Raghu Ram Achar

56203243200

Lisa C. Adams

57192991712

Armita Abedi

57204607249

Usha Adiga

14057674100

Mitra Abbasifard

37053407900

A. Bhoomadevi

57208576447

Mohammad Amin Aalipour

57221831253

Hazim S. Ababneh

57371604000

Ukachukwu O. Abaraogu

56119041500

Dariush Abtahi

18036750600

Ripon Kumar Adhikary

55847469100

Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader

57226205764

Mohd Adnan

36022136700

Simon I. Hay

7101875313

Kanyin Liane Ong

57210793447

Damian F. Santomauro

56912450700

Biruk Beletew Abate

57219674489

Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari

57193543882

Sepideh Abdi

60210711600

Mohammad Abdollahi

57940559800

E. S. Abhilash

57226827662

Hasan Aalruz

60211219100

Roberto Ariel Abeldaño Zuñiga

60211466200

Alemwork Abie

58020591000

Hana J. Abukhadijah

57865346000

Nasir Abbas

59847373500

Ilana N. Ackerman

8925517400

Mesafint Molla Adane

57217891132

Zenaw Debasu Addisu

57219769258

Rufus Adesoji Adedoyin

55947572800

Emad M. Abdallah

16644652400

Samar Abd ElHafeez

55551273300

Olorunsola Israel Adeyomoye

57221313577

Meriem Abdoun

20336514800

Salahdein Aburuz

59755057900

Mahmoud Abdelnabi

57205711287

Lucas Guimarães Abreu

55937631400

Apurba Acharya

57871487800

Lawan Hassan Adamu

56926568700

Oluwafemi Atanda Adeagbo

55626228700

Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani

57211604149

Sherief Abd-Elsalam

57189845325

Adam Abdullahi

59545619100

Kulmira Abdykerimova

59998147700

Deldar Morad Abdulah

57200190808

Toufik Abdul-Rahman

57576497300

Asrat Agalu Abejew

55204820500

Dmitry Abramov

25623078100

Fuad Hamdi A. Abuadas

57193453829

Bilyaminu Abubakar

56389502700

Sawsan Abuhammad

57205384547

Ousman Adal

57766218500

Aidin Abedi

56673854800

Olugbenga Olusola Abiodun

54386552600

Shady Abohashem

57194703660

Nagah M. Abourashed

57450956800

Mohamed Abouzid

57204445082

David Adedia

57207309355

Oyelola A. Adegboye

55270465600

Roberto Ariel Abeldaño Zuñiga

57737618600

Anirudh Balakrishna Acharya

35751874500

Juan Manuel Acuna

56473433400

Isaac Yeboah Addo

56305995900

Arman Abdous

57263159900

Auwal Abdullahi

56102934500

Hasan Aalruz

57216547615

Kishor Adhikari

57852466400

Syed Hani Abidi

59663694600

Olumide Abiodun

7003859089

Richard Gyan Aboagye

57221438826

Hassan Abolhassani

58597704600

Ulric Sena Abonie

57214797230

Habeeb Omoponle Adewuyi

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Prince Owusu Adoma

57777244400

Leticia Akua Adzigbli

57899326600

Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji

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Ahmad Y. Abuhelwa

56588047800

Dina Abushanab

57205329983

Tajudeen Adesanmi Adebisi

59997997500

Oluwatobi E. Adegbile

58998875200

Olumide Thomas Adeleke

57204237787

Miracle Ayomikun Adesina

57212196361

Temitayo Esther Adeyeoluwa

57218094241

Nasir Abbas

56940204900

Salahdein Aburuz

55886382800

Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader

57195295816