Irfana Rasul
60381284500
Publications - 1
Explaining the variation in sustainable development through the lens of key macroeconomic and environmental factors
Publication Name: Discover Sustainability
Publication Date: 2026-12-01
Volume: 7
Issue: 1
Page Range: Unknown
Description:
This paper investigates the role ofenvironmental and macroeconomic stabilityin achieving sustainable developmentin Pakistan from 1990 to 2022.The objective of this study is to investigate the contagion effects of both ecological and macroeconomic variables on Pakistan's sustainable development, employing the structural VAR methodology. The research addresses an important gap in the literature to jointly analyze macroeconomic stability and environmental sustainability within a unified framework for a developing economy like Pakistan. The need for this study arises from Pakistan’s dual challenges of persistent macroeconomic instability and rising environmental stress, which together threaten progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Positive energy shocks are strongerth annegative shocks arising from CO2 , external debt, and inflationin explicating variation inPakistan’s sustainable development. The study finds that renewable energy consumption has the most significant long-term impact on sustainable development, accounting for 33.83% of the forecast error variance. Overall, 55.50% of sustainable development is predicted by environmental factors,14.66% by macroeconomic variables, and 29.84% by its shock. Such results lead to accepting the hypothesis that ecological and macroeconomic stability significantly affect the sustainable development of Pakistan. In the long run, renewable energy consumption has a positive impact on sustainable development, promoting energy security, supporting economic growth, and maintaining environmental stability. The results of diagnostic tests suggest that the structural VAR approach is specified correctly. This study recommends that all economic policies be designed to highlight the need for comprehensive reforms that align economic stability with environmental resilience to achieve sustainable development. In the context of Pakistan, positive shocks arising from renewable energy consumption demonstrate a stronger influence on variations in sustainable development compared to negative shocks arising from CO₂ emissions, external debt, and inflation. This highlights the central role of energy transitions in achieving sustainability.
Open Access: Yes