Dávid Fekete

57201727609

Publications - 15

Predictive Choropleth Maps Using ARIMA Time Series Forecasting for Crime Rates in Visegrád Group Countries

Dávid Fekete Usman Ghani Peter Toth

Publication Name: Sustainability Switzerland

Publication Date: 2023-05-01

Volume: 15

Issue: 10

Page Range: Unknown

Description:

Geographical mapping has revolutionized data analysis with the help of analytical tools in the fields of social and economic studies, whereby representing statistical research variables of interest as geographic characteristics presents visual insights. This study employed the QGIS mapping tool to create predicted choropleth maps of Visegrád Group countries based on crime rate. The forecast of the crime rate was generated by time series analysis using the ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving averages) model in SPSS. The literature suggests that many variables influence crime rates, including unemployment. There is always a need for the integration of widespread data insights into unified analyses and/or platforms. For that reason, we have taken the unemployment rate as a predictor series to predict the future rates of crime in a comparative setting. This study can be extended to several other predictors, broadening the scope of the findings. Predictive data-based choropleth maps contribute to informed decision making and proactive resource allocation in public safety and security administration, including police patrol operations. This study addresses how effectively we can utilize raw crime rate statistics in time series forecasting. Moreover, a visual assessment of safety and security situations using ARIMA models in SPSS based on predictor time-series data was performed, resulting in predictive crime mapping.

Open Access: Yes

DOI: 10.3390/su15108088

Changing Tourism Trends of the Benedictine Abbey in Tihany: Best Practices of a Hungarian Monastic Community

Katalin Czakó Dávid Fekete Mihály Dömötör Gábor Ágoston Barkó

Publication Name: Religions

Publication Date: 2023-04-01

Volume: 14

Issue: 4

Page Range: Unknown

Description:

The touristic use of sacred sites is a widespread practice in Hungary. Throughout the past centuries, Christianity has dominated the history of the Carpathian Basin. The Hungarian State’s strong affiliation with the Roman Catholic Church dates back to its foundation over a 1000 years ago. Due to its location on the shore of Lake Balaton and outstanding natural environment, the Benedictine Tihany Abbey is a major touristic destination and a popular place of pilgrimage in Hungary. The objective of the present paper is to examine how touristic activities contribute to the livelihood of a Hungarian monastic community and local economic development in the 21st century. To answer the research questions, the study primarily relied on literature and documentary analysis, in-depth interviews, and the construction and processing of a database. The research revealed that in addition to the classic elements (e.g., guided tours in the abbey, museum exhibitions, concerts, etc.), the program offer developed by the monastic community of Tihany is capable of addressing new target audiences: the rapidly rising number of tourists from the Far East (mainly Japan, China, South Korea, and Russia). Despite remaining considerably below visitor numbers recorded by the abbey in the mid-1990s, a significant increase in visitor numbers was observed in 2018–2019. The economic activities of the Benedictines of Tihany comprise a number of different areas beyond tourism, e.g., agricultural production and candle making, both of which are integrated into their tourism offer and feature among touristic programs. As a major employer, the abbey exerts a positive impact on the population retention capacity of the settlement by offering jobs to local residents, and it also contributes to population growth by attracting a large number of highly skilled professionals who choose to settle down in the region. The paper shows the evidence of the pandemic on pilgrimage and religious tourism in Tihany.

Open Access: Yes

DOI: 10.3390/rel14040435

Incorporating Survey Perceptions of Public Safety and Security Variables in Crime Rate Analyses for the Visegrád Group (V4) Countries of Central Europe

Dávid Fekete Usman Ghani Peter Toth

Publication Name: Societies

Publication Date: 2022-12-01

Volume: 12

Issue: 6

Page Range: Unknown

Description:

Public governance has evolved in terms of safety and security management, incorporating digital innovation and smart-analytics-based tools to visualize abundant data collections. Urban safety and security are vital social problems that have many branches to be solved, simplified, and improved. Currently, we can see that data-driven insights have often been incorporated into planning, forecasting, and fighting such challenges. The literature has extensively indicated several aspects of solving urban safety problems, i.e., social, technological, administrative, urban, and societal. We have a keen interest in the data analysis and smart analytics options that can be deployed to enhance the presentation, promotional analysis, planning, forecasting, and fighting of these problems. For this, we chose to focus on crime statistics and public surveys regarding victimization and perceptions of crime. As we found through a review, many studies have indicated the vitality of crime rates but not public perceptions in decision-making and planning regarding security. There is always a need for the integration of widespread data insights into unified analyses. This study aimed to answer (1) how effectively we can utilize the crime rates and statistics, and incorporate community perceptions and (2) how promising these two ways of seeing the same phenomena are. For the data analysis, we chose four neighboring countries in Central Europe. We selected CECs, i.e., Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic, and Slovakia, known collectively as the Visegrád Group or V4. The data resources were administrative police statistics and ESS (European Social Survey) statistical datasets. The choice of this region helped us reduce variability in regional dynamics, regime changes, and social control practices.

Open Access: Yes

DOI: 10.3390/soc12060156

Elements of Divergence in Urbanization between Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and the Core of the Continent

Dávid Fekete Krisztina Gálos Péter Faragó

Publication Name: Sustainability Switzerland

Publication Date: 2022-10-01

Volume: 14

Issue: 19

Page Range: Unknown

Description:

There is an ongoing debate regarding whether the EU-10 converges at the core of Europe or not. Although the evidence supports both perspectives, the gap in urbanization is undeniable. In this explorative study, two economic processes contributing to this disparity—foreign direct investment and migration—were analyzed and contextualized with respect to urbanization using grounded theory. It was concluded that there is slight convergence in the frontier, usually in urbanized areas of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), but not in the rural areas; additionally, the rural–urban dichotomy within the CEE countries is deepening due to the self-enhancing nature of the analyzed processes.

Open Access: Yes

DOI: 10.3390/su141912377

A new planning instrument for urban development in Hungary: The modern cities program

Dávid Fekete

Publication Name: Regional Science Policy and Practice

Publication Date: 2022-08-01

Volume: 14

Issue: 4

Page Range: 740-758

Description:

Urban development has gained increasing momentum in governmental development policies of the past few decades throughout the Central and Eastern European region. Analyzing a new instrument of Hungarian spatial policy (Modern Cities Program), the paper shows a new initiative of a Central and Eastern European country in the field of urban development. The analysis shows the role of the program in European and domestic regional development policy, its impact on financing infrastructural developments in Hungarian urban areas, and the structure of the projects of the Modern Cities Program. Due to its sizable budget and philosophy, the Modern Cities Program is clearly unrivaled by development programs of the past century of Hungarian regional development. The program with its philosophical grounding in the still not defunct French étatist, dirigiste tradition typical of the 1960s shows a number of similarities to the latter in terms of its applied tools and methods, such as the system of planning contracts, centralized financing, and decision-making. Conversely, there is no evidence to support the interpretation of the program as a novel urban development regime, as underlined by the absence of widespread social involvement in the conceptualization of development objectives. Economic development is at the forefront of the program, with industrial and economic development-related measures affecting each participating city.

Open Access: Yes

DOI: 10.1111/rsp3.12422

Sustainable and Innovative Cross-Border Regional Development with Focus on Tourism in the Danube Basin—A Case-Study of Szigetköz and Csallóköz (Žitný Ostrov)

Dávid Fekete Petra Kinga Kézai Mihály Dömötör

Publication Name: Sustainability Switzerland

Publication Date: 2022-06-01

Volume: 14

Issue: 12

Page Range: Unknown

Description:

The current paper aims to analyze the Hungarian–Slovakian cross-border area (Szigetköz, Csallóköz) and unearth the region’s latent economic development potential. The study area with its unique natural environment has recently aroused the interest of many fields. Szigetköz is a fresh spot in the agglomeration of two large cities: Győr and Mosonmagyaróvár. What could be the economic bases and social factors that can awaken the area from its sleeping rose dream? Along with this issue, we explore socio-economic development opportunities. The exploratory research is based on content analysis of strategic documents and in-depth interviews with the settlement’s mayors. The results show that, although the overwhelming majority of settlements have a more moderate population loss and an abundance of economic opportunities relative to other Hungarian settle-ments, there are several gaps and negative processes that operate beneath the surface.

Open Access: Yes

DOI: 10.3390/su14127037

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN THE HUNGARIAN-SLOVAKIAN CROSS-BORDER AREA – SZIGETKÖZ AND CSALLÓKÖZ (Žitný ostrov) ACCORDING TO DEVELOPMENT DOCUMENTS AND LOCAL STAKEHOLDERS PERCEPTIONS

Dávid Fekete Petra Kinga Kézai Mihály Dömötör

Publication Name: Deturope

Publication Date: 2022-01-01

Volume: 14

Issue: 1

Page Range: 87-110

Description:

The current research investigates the Hungarian-Slovakian cross-border area of Szigetköz-Csallóköz in the context of new economic opportunities facilitated by water level regulation. The objective of the research is to unearth the potential economic opportunities triggered by the planned interventions and reveal the latent resources in the regional socio-economic fabric. The research employs two analytical methods: a situation analysis phase comprising an in-depth analysis of strategic documents that discuss various economic features of the Szigetköz – Csallóköz area, and a needs assessment phase based on in-depth interviews with decision-makers and institutional leaders of the selected municipalities (N=22). The research results are presented in the form of proposals related to infrastructural developments, such as the construction of a cycle path along the Old Danube embankment (from Danakiliti to Gönyű) or economic development such as the creation of a unique tourism brand.

Open Access: Yes

DOI: 10.32725/det.2022.005

EUROPEAN CAPITAL OF CULTURE 2023 - COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE HUNGARIAN CANDIDATE CITIES

Szabolcs Morvay Dávid Fekete

Publication Name: Deturope

Publication Date: 2020-01-01

Volume: 12

Issue: 2

Page Range: 84-104

Description:

A Hungarian city will be designated as the European Capital of Culture in 2023. The series of programmes are designed to show the multi-colour European culture, accordingly, the cultural values and cultural dimensions of the cities are in the focus. Several cities take part in the competition in the customary way by submitting their tender documentation within the framework of a pre-selection procedure. Győr, Veszprém and Debrecen proved to be the most probable candidate cities to win in Hungary, they were chosen to enter the second round of the selection procedure. Although the focus of intense attention usually falls on the cultural programmes planned for the project year, the period of the competition itself is also regarded an exciting phase of the project, since this is the period when candidate cities are expected to give an account of their plans, moreover, they are also expected to outline their projected development conception in the field of culture and their cultural potentials. The present study aims to analyse and confront the plans of three Hungarian cities that were selected to enter the second round of the competition and, consequently, it also intends to explore the visions, the strengths and weaknesses of the Hungarian cities of outstanding cultural ambitions mainly via factors denoted in figures. Today we know, that the winning city became Veszprém. Although based on the quantitative data we saw the other two cities as more likely to win, due to a number of qualitative as well as subjective factors, the city of Veszprém proved to be better during the selection procedure. We do not want to override the decision; we only outline an analytical framework for the cultural comparison of our culturally ambitious Hungarian cities.

Open Access: Yes

DOI: DOI not available

Quantitative comparative analysis on the cultural tourism-financial potential of creative cities (on the example of Debrecen, Győr and Veszprém)

Szabolcs Morvay Dávid Fekete

Publication Name: Teruleti Statisztika

Publication Date: 2020-01-01

Volume: 60

Issue: 5

Page Range: 548-566

Description:

The European Capital of Culture (ECOC) programme series aims to present the diversity of European culture, focusing on the cultural values and dimensions of cities. In 2023, Debrecen, Győr and Veszprém, as Hungarian applicants, entered the second round of the selection procedure. Although most attention is focused on the cultural programs of the project year, the project application phase is also exciting, as applicant cities can present their plans, development ideas and potentials in the field of culture. The study compares the creative aspirations and cultural potential of these 3 cities, exploring the cultural visions, strengths and weaknesses of these culturally outstandingly ambitious cities, mainly using quantifiable indicators. The authors developed and applied a survey model having 14 indicators for a quantitative comparative analysis of the cultural, tourism and financial potential of the three cities. Comparing 2 large and 1 medium-sized cities in Hungary, the authors conclude that not only in Central and Eastern Europe, but also in Hungary, stronger efforts are made to have culturally rich and creative cities.

Open Access: Yes

DOI: 10.15196/TS600502

Differences, constraints and key elements of providing local sharing economy services in different-sized cities: A Hungarian case

Katalin Czakó Dávid Fekete Kinga Szabó Marcell Tóth

Publication Name: Resources

Publication Date: 2019-09-01

Volume: 8

Issue: 3

Page Range: Unknown

Description:

The business models of sharing economy services can differ fromeach other in different-sized cities. This paper provides a deeper understanding of the implementation of locally operating services for car, bicycle and office sharing in the urban environment. Our goal is to reveal the differences between the capital city and an economically well-developed city in order to provide beneficial findings to the development of the presently operating services, or to the possible implementation of future services. Methodology of the paper applies the Business Model Canvas approach (BMC). We introduce a comparative analysis using data from the Hungarian database, which records details of all the publicly visible sharing economy services countrywide. The results show that BMC can reflect the main differences, constraints and key elements in the business models of sharing economy services. We can say that, in the case of a bike sharing service operated in the non-capital city, there is more segmentation than seen in the same service in the capital. There are significant price differences, especially in the case of long-term tickets. The number of inhabitants and private capital remain the biggest constraints in the case of car-sharing services, but there is also a possibility of implementation in the non-capital cities by applying small-scale services with a good value proposition and segmentation.

Open Access: Yes

DOI: 10.3390/resources8030147

Creative cities in Central and Eastern Europe-Examining the position of Gyor from the creative and cultural aspects of this macro-region

Szabolcs Morvay Dávid Fekete

Publication Name: Regional Statistics

Publication Date: 2019-01-01

Volume: 9

Issue: 2

Page Range: 45-66

Description:

The European Union is paying increasing more attention to the creative sector, acknowledging the economic significance of the sphere and appreciating the social benefits of creative and cultural activities. Its latest innovation is the Cultural and Creative Cities Monitor (CCCM), which shows the creative vibrancy of 168 European cities, thus enabling a comparison and ranking in terms of different creative and cultural aspects. Gyor has been included in this platform's list besides Budapest, Pecs, and Szeged. In this study the creative position of Gyor, in relation to similar mid-sized Central and Eastern European cities is examined, thus estimating the creative potential of Gyor. The analysis enables us to observe the elements and indicators of a creative city that are used to measure and show creativity. Exploring the city's strengths and weaknesses provides guidance as the CCCM annually renews its evaluation and changes the ranking. With conscious initiatives Gyor may become more creative, both internationally and locally. Based on the CCCM scores Gyor has numerous strengths: favourable geographic location, adequate amount of cultural offerings, strong economic potential, cultural vibrancy, and a high level of participation in cultural life. However, the city has weak features too, that require strengthening. The aim is for the cities to become more creative, but this requires analysis from the creative and cultural aspects. We offer an analysis that focuses on Hungarian cities, on our macro-region and on the creative and cultural elements of these cities.

Open Access: Yes

DOI: 10.15196/RS090209

The effect of social rehabilitation on the urban segregations

Dávid Fekete Tímea Laczkovits-Takács

Publication Name: Deturope

Publication Date: 2019-01-01

Volume: 11

Issue: 2

Page Range: 143-168

Description:

The remarkable social urban rehabilitation effort of the Gyor Municipality which has recently been implemented and is currently in progress led to the considerable development of Gyor-Újváros, not only in the renewal of the actual built environment but also in the social improvement of the inhabitants. In our study we will look at the Gyor urban development project in three dimensions. First we explore its feasibility. Why is it Újváros that needed rehabilitation? Strategic documents and relating statistics prove the choice feasible: it is the place where the most significant segregation can be found in Gyor that needed intervention. Secondly, we analyse the intervention of the urban development. What were the changes, how did they affect the built heritage and the social status of the inhabitants of the area? Based on the available documents and reports we can state that significant results were achieved both concerning the built heritage and social adjustment and development. In the framework of empiric research, we examine through comparative analysis the conditions before and after the rehabilitation taking into consideration two aspects (modification of hard infrastructure and the modification of the soft factors) and 7 allocated indicators (I.1. Number of flats, I2 Number of businesses, I3. Level of convenience, I4. Surface area of the flats, I5. Rent prices, I6. Applicants receiving regular support, I7. Applicant receiving temporary support). Data are available partly from the feasibility study and partly from the data services of the Gyor Municipality. Result show that regarding several factors, rehabilitation had a positive effect in the neighbourhood. As a result of the rehabilitation the built environment has gone through significant improvement in case of six blocks of flats. The number of businesses for rent has increased, the convenience level of flats has changed positively too, as all flats have all modern conveniences and in most cases the surface area has also risen, thus providing better housing. Parallel to this the social status of the inhabitants living in this area has also improved as both the regular and temporary applicant receiving support has dropped significantly. Due to rehabilitation the rents have tripled after renovation which can be put down to the significant rise in standards.

Open Access: Yes

DOI: 10.32725/det.2019.020

Development Projects of the Modern Cities Program in Gyor

Dávid Fekete

Publication Name: Teruleti Statisztika

Publication Date: 2018-01-01

Volume: 58

Issue: 6

Page Range: 638-658

Description:

This study examines the development projects of the Modern Cities Program related to the city of Gyor, from several aspects. In the framework of the large-scale urban development program announced in 2015, the 23 Hungarian cities with county rights may benefit from its HUF 3,400 billion central budget. In the coming years, approximately HUF 120-130 billion development resources will be available to the city of Gyor. Since Gyor would be able to provide the financial resources of the development package in about 10 years from its own budget, the program is a significant additional source for the city. The development projects of the Modern Cities Program in Gyor are well suited to the city's strategic directions, serving the development of the city's transport systems, the strengthening of the university's research and development activities and the further development of the natural and built heritage of the city.

Open Access: Yes

DOI: 10.15196/TS580605

Economic development and economic governance through the example of the city of Gyor

Dávid Fekete

Publication Name: Deturope

Publication Date: 2018-01-01

Volume: 10

Issue: 1

Page Range: 97-115

Description:

Since the 1990s the metropolitan region and its governance has got into the focus of regional science again. Nowadays a newer wave of metropolitan governance is authoritative, which has exceeded the former administrative-territorial planning aspects, and has appeared on the scene as the mechanism of economic development policy. Examining the development stages of regional policy it is well-known that the classical (modern) approach was superseded by the postmodern one. While the national methods applied in the classical period were characterized by strictness, central regulation, indirect regulation of the market (Fordist approach), in the postmodern period flexibility, decentralization and direct regulation have come to the fore (Post-Fordism). In the postmodern period the state level also takes its role in the financing of innovation and research and and development, and the notions of networking and competitiveness are coming more and more to the fore. In this article I analyze these processes through the case study of Gyor. After the theoretical introduction I examine the tools of economic development and economic governance in the Gyor metropolitan region. Activities observed in Gyor can strengthen the view-point that the processes of economic development and economic governance have nowadays been going on in parallel with each other. Moreover, the coordinating activities of local authorities can be observed in the work of organizations that support economic governance. In the course of the research it was also confirmed that built infrastructure can serve as a fundamental condition for the cooperation of network-systems that operate the governance system of a municipality.

Open Access: Yes

DOI: 10.32725/det.2018.006

Social Impact Assessment in Urban Security Management Projects: A Case Study from Pakistan

Dávid Fekete Eniko Varga Usman Ghani Peter Toth Zoltán Baracskai

Publication Name: Academic Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies

Publication Date: 2024-01-01

Volume: 13

Issue: 1

Page Range: 33-56

Description:

Public safety and security management projects are devised to reduce crime, fear and calamities by prevailing law and order to reduce the harm in society. In a certain context, social impact assessment is a novel way to reveal the extent of effectiveness for these projects. This case study presents an Expert System based methodology regarding social impact assessment for two urban security management projects in Pakistan. An Expert System, DoctuS is employed as a tool to build a rule-based model tool using social impact attributes (as variables) from literature and expert knowledge (Author’s own insight as being involved in projects). Case-based reasoning (CBR) method is employed for the measurement of the impact of urban security management KPIs (Key Performance Indicators) in the two case projects. The empirical findings in this case study approaches the impact assessment by quantitative analysis of crime rates in JMP statistical package and Qualitative Expert knowledge-based model in DoctuS. Thereby, the study evaluates the pre and post ante project situations in order to assess the project’s effectiveness and impact on improved urban safety and security. In the first step, the projects are briefly described, followed by the crime rate analysis under the project jurisdictions and rules between attributes are defined. The second step defines the qualitative rule-based model along with the two cases described, and validated in DoctuS tool. Some attributes and rules have changed, and a new concise model is presented. The Expert System compares the project cases and evaluates the social impact assessment based on the defined KPIs. The Expert system validation presents a novel model for social impact assessment of subject urban security management projects. We propose this methodology and model as useful in investigating social impact assessment of projects specifically dealing with urban safety and security management. However, the generalizability of the findings of this case-study based articles need more sophisticated tests as recommendation for the extension to this study

Open Access: Yes

DOI: 10.36941/ajis-2024-0004