The paper seeks to answer the question of how price forecasting can contribute to which techniques gives the most accurate results in the futures commodity market. A total of two families of models (decision trees, artificial intelligence) were used to produce estimates for 2018 and 2022 for 21- and 125-day periods. The main findings of the study are that in a calm economic environment, the estimation accuracy is higher (1.5% vs. 4%), and that the AI-based estimation methods provide the most accurate estimates for both time horizons. These models provide the most accurate forecasts over short and medium time periods. Incorporating these forecasts into the ERM can significantly help to hedge purchase prices. Artificial intelligence-based models are becoming increasingly widely available, and can achieve significantly better accuracy than other approximations.

Background Violence against women and against children are human rights violations with lasting harms to survivors and societies at large. Intimate partner violence (IPV) and sexual violence against children (SVAC) are two major forms of such abuse. Despite their wide-reaching effects on individual and community health, these risk factors have not been adequately prioritised as key drivers of global health burden. Comprehensive x§and reliable estimates of the comparative health burden of IPV and SVAC are urgently needed to inform investments in prevention and support for survivors at both national and global levels. Methods We estimated the prevalence and attributable burden of IPV among females and SVAC among males and females for 204 countries and territories, by age and sex, from 1990 to 2023, as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2023. We searched several global databases for data on self-reported exposure to IPV and SVAC and undertook a systematic review to identify the health outcomes associated with each of these risk factors. We modelled IPV and SVAC prevalence using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, applying data adjustments to account for measurement heterogeneity. We employed burden-of-proof methodology to estimate relative risks for outcomes associated with IPV and SVAC. These estimates informed the calculation of population attributable fractions, which were then used to quantify disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributable to each risk factor. Findings Globally, in 2023, we estimated that 608 million (95% uncertainty interval 518–724) females aged 15 years and older had ever been exposed to IPV, and 1·01 billion (0·764–1·48) individuals aged 15 years and older had experienced sexual violence during childhood. 18·5 million (8·74–30·0) DALYs were attributed to IPV among females and 32·2 million (16·4–52·5) DALYs were attributed to SVAC among males and females in 2023. IPV and SVAC were among the top contributors to the global disease burden in 2023, particularly among females aged 15–49 years, ranking as the fourth and fifth leading risk factors, respectively, for DALYs in this group. Among the eight health outcomes found to be associated with IPV, anxiety disorders and major depressive disorder were the leading causes of IPV-attributed DALYs, accounting for 5·43 million (–1·25 to 14·6) and 3·96 million (1·71 to 6·92) DALYs in 2023, respectively. SVAC was associated with 14 health outcomes, including mental health disorder, substance use disorder, and chronic and infectious disease outcomes. Self-harm and schizophrenia were the leading causes of SVAC-attributed burden, with SVAC accounting for 6·71 million (2·00 to 12·7) DALYs due to self-harm and 4·15 million (–1·92 to 13·1) DALYs due to schizophrenia in 2023. Interpretation IPV and SVAC are substantial contributors to global health burden, and their health consequences span a variety of individual health outcomes. Importantly, mental health disorders account for the greatest share of disease burden among survivors. Investing in prevention of these avoidable risk factors has the potential to avert millions of DALYs and considerable premature mortality each year. Our findings represent strong evidence for global and national leaders to elevate IPV and SVAC among public health priorities. Sustained investments are needed to prevent IPV and SVAC and to implement interventions focused on supporting the complex social and health needs of survivors. Funding Gates Foundation.

This paper discusses a combination of best practices and procedures from recent work in Europe and the US, providing rational and economical calculations addressing the complexities associated with frame design using nonprismatic members. Recommendations are provided in the context of US design practice. A primary objective is to achieve maximum simplicity, transparency, and design speed while facilitating rigor of the underlying calculations. The paper provides several focused examples illustrating the recommended design verification procedures.

From 2015, migratory pressures put a heavy burden on EU countries. In 2015, Hungary took a new approach by building a border fence and creating criminal legal rules to protect it. This study aims to assess these measures in the EU sphere. Our research was based on EU (FRONTEX) and national (Prosecutor General’s Office information) data and assessed the Hungarian solution in the light of the migration policy of other Member States located along the main migratory routes. The data show: (1) the criminal law has no substantive effect, and (2) the law enforcement tools are effective. Moreover, the domestic data also show that Hungary is not consistent in its policy and has preferred law enforcement tools to criminal legal tools in the past few years, which violates the basic principles of criminal law: the principle of legality and the principle of ultima ratio.

Professionals need special skills in supply chain management to perform all the required tasks - organising material and information flow, product development, forecasting, customer services and relations, warehousing, decision making and performance measurement. The scientific literature and empirical studies show consistently that in addition to this complex frame of operations the bullwhip effect is presence in every case. This expensive phenomena is hard to detect and measure, and able to cause serious problems in the chains. We consider the game based learning is an effective way to gain experiences rather than acquire only the theoretical background. The beer game as supply chain simulation is widely accepted in the demonstration of system dynamics and investigations of bullwhip effect. Considering the advantages and drawbacks of the numerous versions of the game we created android software for the trainings. The paper based training is hard to follow, in the boardgame the participants can't satisfy the basic rule of not sharing any information and the online version won't make the common/group learning possible. Our training use the beer game simulation connected with the Balanced Scorecard measurement system helps the participants to develop skills in recognition of the bullwhip effect, being familiar with the triggers and impacts, have tools for mitigation and the skill of choosing or designing solutions in the specific cases. The participants can study the theories, evaluate several inventory and order strategies and they also get instant feedback on the impact of their decisions.

This study aimed to examine the differences between the antioxidant capacity, and the total polyphenol content of the ancient grains namely Einkorn (Triticum monococcum L.) and Khorasan (Triticum turanicum) compared with wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), furthermore attempt to create a functional loaf enriched with rosemary (Salvia Rosmarinus Spenn.). To achieve this goal, 1, 3, and 5% of rosemary were added to the loafs made of Einkorn, Khorasan, and common wheat flour, and then the changes in their antioxidant and polyphenol content were examined. Based on the spectrophotometric results, it can be said that the type of wheat clearly affects the amount of the tested components. In all cases, the loafs made from common wheat contained the least amount of antioxidants (0.74 mg AAE/g) and polyphenols (0.41 mg GAE/g). On the other hand, Khorasan loaves showed outstanding values in terms of their antioxidant (0.89 mg AAE/g) and polyphenol (0.68 mg GAE/g) content. Einkorn loaves contained smaller amounts of the tested antioxidants (0.71 mg AAE/g) and polyphenols (0.51 mg GAE/g), but they were still better than common wheat loaves. The addition of rosemary can significantly increase the amount of compounds with an antioxidant effect in bakery products, but care must be taken to preserve the favorable organoleptic properties. It has been proven that ancient grains have a more positive physiological effect than common wheat, and the health-protective properties of bakery products can be increased by adding herbs. Graphical abstract: (Figure presented.)

The Method of Fundamental Solutions (MFS) is investigated for 3D potential problem in the case when the source points are located along the boundary of the domain of the original problem and coincide with the collocation points. This generates singularities at the boundary collocation points, which are eliminated in different ways. The (weak) singularities due to the singularity of the fundamental solution at the origin are eliminated by using approximate but continuous fundamental solution instead of the original one (regularization). The (stronger) singularities due to the singularity of the normal derivatives of the fundamental solution are eliminated by solving special auxiliary subproblems (desingularization). The desingularization idea is similar to a previously published technique and is completely independent of the applied regularization technique. The presented method produces well-conditioned or moderately ill-conditioned matrices in the resulting linear system of algebraic equations, while the accuracy remains acceptable. No boundary mesh structure is needed. The method is generalized to 3D axisymmetric potential problems in a natural way, despite in this case the fundamental solution does not remain a radial function. The use of extremely ill-conditioned matrices is still avoided.

When conducting natural communication in addition to perform verbal communication, non-verbal communication such as gestural information should also be understood. By the word "understand" we mean not only the recognition of one action, but also grasp the meaning of the gesture itself. Therefore, in order to understand the meaning of an action, in this paper we propose emotional model along with the gesture recognition technique. First we discuss the gesture recognition method using iPhone camera by applying steady state genetic algorithm, spiking neural network and self organizing map. After that we use the gesture recognition result as an input data for the emotional model.

The operation of driver assistance systems and autonomous vehicles requires a sensor system and a control algorithm. Sensors provide information to detect people, vehicles and objects in the vehicle’s environment; however, their performance can be degraded by adverse environmental conditions and contamination. This literature review identified factors that reduce sensor visibility, such as weather conditions and external contamination. In this study, the detection efficiency of state-of-the-art neural network-based object detectors was examined in a simulation environment using a synthetic dataset. A custom dataset comprising six urban and suburban traffic scenarios was created, including clean images and ten contaminated variants per scene with increasing mud coverage. The results show that contamination leads to a measurable reduction in detection performance across all models. Smaller variants are more sensitive to degradation, while medium-complexity models provide a favorable balance between robustness and computational cost. Increasing model size yields limited additional robustness, and performance differences between architectures highlight the importance of model design. Furthermore, the spatial distribution of contamination, particularly near the image center, has a significant impact on performance in addition to its overall extent.